“One of the cool new features on our newly released Crime Index is the ability to visualize changing clearance rates (along with crime) as they change. With a few button clicks you can see the US murder clearance rate trend for the last few years. As you can see, murder clearances were right around 60 percent pre-COVID, fell to around 50 percent in 2021 and 2022 before rebounding steadily through the end of 2025…

Measuring the relatively high clearance rates in the US (relative to the last 25 years, not relative to the optimal 100 percent clearance rate) in 2025 raises the natural question: why has it gone up?

The US clearance rates in the 1960s and 1970s were unbelievably high — and by that I mean that they probably shouldn’t be believed. Philip Cook wrote a great piece a few years ago where he analyzes the great drop in murder clearance rates. Per Cook, a major factor is the ‘upward trend in the standard for arrest’, meaning police are making better arrests that are more likely to lead to conviction nowadays compared to 50 or 60 years ago.

But why are they rising now? I would point to two factors that are major determinants in explaining why clearance rates are rising. First, the number of murders has fallen dramatically, and a smaller denominator (murders) with roughly even numerator (murders solved by police) leads to a naturally higher clearance rate.”

From Jeff-alytics.