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Eight Centuries of Increasing Food Abundance in England: Meat

Blog Post | Food & Hunger

Eight Centuries of Increasing Food Abundance in England: Meat

Beef, mutton, and pork affordability has improved dramatically for the rich, and even more for the poor.

Summary: Meat consumption is often seen as a measure of prosperity and well-being, but how has it changed over time? This article examines the historical trends of meat availability and affordability in England, from the medieval era to the present day. The analysis reveals a remarkable decrease in the time price of meat products and a significant surge in their abundance for both skilled and unskilled workers.


Human progress is often incremental, but many positive trends have become clearly visible over time. One of these trends is the growing abundance of food. This series of articles for HumanProgress.org will look at the affordability of food relative to wages in England between the 13th century and the present. You can read the previous article on dairy products here.

Professor Gregory Clark of the University of California, Davis, has conducted extensive research into the economic history of England. As part of his research into the condition of the working class in England, Clark has developed an extensive data set containing nominal prices of goods, and nominal wages of skilled and unskilled workers in England between the 13th and 19th centuries. Note: Clark assumes a 10-hour workday before 1720.

Using the concept of time prices developed by Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley, we can calculate the number of hours of work that someone must work to earn enough money to buy a particular food item.  

In this analysis, Clark’s nominal prices of food items serve as the nominator, and nominal hourly wages, which come from Clark and from the UK’s Office of National Statistics’ Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, serve as the denominator.  

Figure 1: Food abundance from the perspective of unskilled workers in England, hours of labor

As we can see in Figure 1, a pound of beef fell from 3.05 hours of labor in the 1600s to 0.29 hours of labor in 2022. A pound of mutton fell from 3.27 hours of labor to 0.43 hours, and a pound of pork fell from 3.52 hours of labor to 0.29 hours. 

Figure 2: Food abundance from the perspective of unskilled workers in England, per hour of labor

As we can see in Figure 2, an hour of work bought 0.33 pounds of beef for an unskilled worker in 1636. That rose to 3.45 pounds in 2022. Instead of 0.31 pounds of mutton, an unskilled worker got 2.32 pounds. Instead of 0.28 pounds of pork, he or she got 3.44 pounds.

Put differently, the same number of hours of work that bought 1 pound of beef in the 1600s bought 10.5 pounds of beef in 2022. Instead of 1 pound of mutton, an unskilled worker got 7.6 pounds. Instead of 1 pound of pork, he or she got 12.1 pounds.

Figure 3: Food abundance from the perspective of skilled workers in England, hours of labor

As we can see in Figure 3, for a skilled worker, a pound of beef fell from 2.14 hours of labor in the 1600s to 0.23 hours of labor in 2022. A pound of mutton fell from 2.29 hours of labor to 0.34 hours, and a pound of pork fell from 2.47 hours of labor to 0.23 hours.

Figure 4: Food abundance from the perspective of skilled workers in England, per hour of labor

As we can see in Figure 4, an hour of work bought 0.47 pounds of beef for a skilled worker in the 1600s. That rose to 4.41 pounds in 2022. Instead of 0.44 pounds of mutton, a skilled worker got 2.96 pounds. Instead of 0.41 pounds of pork, he or she got 4.39 pounds.

Put differently, the same number of hours of work that bought 1 pound of beef in the 1600s bought 9.4 pounds of beef in 2022. Instead of 1 pound of mutton, a skilled worker got 6.8 pounds. Instead of 1 pound of pork, he or she got 10.9 pounds. 

Clearly, meat products became much more abundant for both skilled and unskilled workers. Moreover, note that the time price differential between unskilled laborers and skilled tradesmen has shrunk. For example, to afford a pound of pork in the 1630s, an unskilled worker would have to work 3.52 hours compared to 2.47 hours for a skilled worker, a difference of over an hour. However, in 2022, an unskilled worker would work 17.4 minutes to afford a pound of pork, and a skilled worker would work 13.8 minutes, a difference of only 3.6 minutes.

Put differently, unskilled workers have become better-off relative to their more-skilled compatriots. 

Finally, the rate of growth in abundance has clearly accelerated over the last 200 years. Whereas the rate of growth in the abundance of beef, mutton and pork grew at a compounded annual rate of about 0.18% between 1636 and 1865 for an unskilled worker, it grew 0.7% between 1865 and 2022. Similarly, for a skilled worker, the compound annual growth rate increased from 0.2% before 1865 to 1.03% afterwards. Since the mid-1800s, the rate of growth of wages relative to prices has increased dramatically.

World Bank | Food Prices

Global Food Prices Ease amid Improved Supply and Trade

“Global grain supplies are projected to reach a record 3.6 billion tons in the 2025-26 season, marking a third consecutive year of growth—though at a slower pace than the average annual growth of the preceding two decades. Wheat supply has returned to its long-term average growth rate, while maize supply has rebounded after recent setbacks but remains below its historical trend. In contrast, supplies of rice and soybeans are projected to grow at about their long-term growth averages, building on last season’s significantly elevated levels.”

From World Bank.

The Verge | Food Production

Lab-Grown Salmon Gets FDA Approval

“The FDA has issued its first ever approval on a safety consultation for lab-grown fish. That makes Wildtype only the fourth company to get approval from the regulator to sell cell-cultivated animal products..

Wildtype salmon is now on the menu at Haitian restaurant Kann in Portland, Oregon, and the company has opened a waitlist for the next five restaurants to stock the fish. It joins Upside Foods and Good Meat, two companies with permission to sell cultivated chicken in the US, while Mission Barns has been cleared by the FDA but is awaiting USDA approval for its cultivated pork fat.”

From The Verge.

Blog Post | U.S. Agriculture

Cornpreneurs Save Us From Davos Elites

US corn yields are increasing 3.56 times faster than population.

Summary: For nearly a century, corn production in the United States has far outpaced population growth, thanks to relentless agricultural innovation. While global elites warn of food scarcity and promote insect-based diets, American farmers continue to feed the nation—and the world—more efficiently than ever, defying the narrative of resource collapse.


Corn has a rich history stretching back thousands of years to Mesoamerica, where it was domesticated from a wild grass called teosinte. Indigenous peoples in the Americas developed corn through selective breeding, making it a cornerstone of their diets, cultures, and civilizations. After Christopher Columbus introduced corn to Europe in 1493, it spread rapidly across the globe, becoming a dietary staple and key ingredient in countless cuisines.

Today, corn is the most widely produced grain in the world, with global production exceeding 1.2 billion metric tons. The United States leads the world in corn production, consumption, and exports—accounting for 31 percent of global output with 377.63 million metric tons, according to the USDA.

Over 95 percent of animal feed for US livestock—such as cattle, hogs, and poultry—comes from corn, which makes up roughly 40 percent of all corn used domestically. Despite this abundance, the Davos crowd would have us believe that our survival hinges on swapping steaks and burgers for worms and insects. Under the banner of “sustainability,” they propose shuttering our Texas Roadhouses, Dickey’s Barbecue Pits, and Chick-fil-As to make way for bug burgers. But are we really running out of beef, chicken, and pork?

Hardly. Corn is a foundational feed for producing those delicious meats. In the 1930s, US corn yields averaged 26 bushels per acre. Today, that number is 179.3 bushels per acre—with top-performing farms reaching an astonishing 624 bushels. That’s a 589.6 percent increase in yield over 88 years. One acre today produces as much corn as nearly 6.89 acres did in 1936, freeing up 5.89 acres for other uses—from conservation to recreation. Yields continue to rise at about 1.75 bushels per year, doubling every 31.6 years thanks to a 2.21 percent annual growth rate.

Meanwhile, the US population grew 165.6 percent between 1936 and 2024—from 128 million to 340 million. Yet every one percent increase in population has corresponded with a 3.56 percent increase in corn abundance. If each American consumed one bushel of corn in 1936, it would’ve required 4.9 million acres of land to grow the crop. Today, even with 212 million more people, it only takes about 1.9 million acres. We’ve reduced land needs by 61 percent. We’re growing smarter much faster than we’re growing people.

Corn was selling for around 68 cents a bushel in the 1930s. Unskilled workers were earning around 28 cents an hour. That would put the time price at 2.42 hours. The USDA currently estimates the season-average corn price at $4.20 per bushel for the 2025-2026 crop year. Unskilled workers are earning $17.17 an hour putting the time price at 0.24 hours or around 15 minutes. The time price has fallen from 145 minutes to 15 minutes, or almost 90 percent. For the time it took an unskilled worker to earn the money to buy one bushel of corn in 1930, they get 9.7 bushels today.

Screenshot

MIT’s Andrew McAfee highlighted this trend in More from Less, predicting continued innovation in agriculture. He’s even backing his confidence with a $100,000 bet: that by 2029, the US will produce more crops than in 2019 while using less land, fertilizer, and irrigation. If you think he’s wrong—and believe the World Economic Forum’s bug-eating future is inevitable—there’s your chance at easy money.

So yes, you could try a worm with your next meal—but there’s no reason to think we’re running out of corn or the land to raise your next steak, wing, or chop.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

Our World in Data | Malnutrition

Famines Kill Far Fewer People Today than They Did in the Past

“Famines are still a major global problem. From 2020 to 2023 alone, they caused over a million deaths.

Yet the long-term trend shows significant progress. In the late 1800s and the first half of the 1900s, it was common for famines to kill over 10 million people per decade. This was true as recently as the 1960s, when China’s Great Leap Forward became the deadliest famine in history.

But as you can see in the chart, that number has dropped sharply, to about one to two million per decade.

This improvement is even more striking given that the world’s population has grown substantially.”

From Our World in Data.