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The Simon Abundance Index 2023

Blog Post | Energy & Natural Resources

The Simon Abundance Index 2023

The Earth was 420.1 percent more abundant in 2022 than it was in 1980.

Does population growth lead to greater resource scarcity, as argued by the English scholar Thomas Malthus and, more recently, by the Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich? Or does population growth coincide with—and even contribute to—greater resource abundance, as the University of Maryland economist and Cato Institute senior fellow Julian Simon has argued? The Simon Abundance Index (SAI) measures the relationship between population growth and the abundance of 50 basic commodities, including food, energy, materials, minerals, and metals.

Main Findings

Global resource abundance fell by 3.55 percent in 2022, according to the sixth annual Simon Abundance Index. The base year of the index is 1980, and the base value of the index is 100. In 2022, the index stood at 520.1. In other words, the index rose by 420.1 percent over the last 42 years, implying a compound annual growth rate in global resource abundance of 4 percent and a doubling of global resource abundance every 17.65 years.

Figure 1: The Simon Abundance Index (1980–2022)

The graph shows resource abundance increasing since 1980.

Analysis

The SAI is measured in time prices. To calculate a commodity’s time price, the nominal price of a commodity is divided by the average global nominal income per hour worked. Over the last 42 years, the average of the nominal prices of the Basic 50 commodities rose by 150 percent, while the average global nominal income per hour worked rose by 439.2 percent. That means that the time price of the Basic 50 commodities fell by a geometric average of 65.5 percent.

The personal resource abundance multiplier is calculated by dividing the average of the time prices of the Basic 50 commodities in 1980 by the average of the time prices of the Basic 50 commodities in 2022. The multiplier tells us how much more of a resource a person can get for the same hours of work between two points in time. Given that the average of the time prices of the Basic 50 commodities fell by 65.5 percent, the same number of hours of work that bought one unit in the basket of the Basic 50 commodities in 1980 bought 2.9 units in the same basket in 2022.

That means that personal resource abundance of the average inhabitant of the planet rose by 190 percent between 1980 and 2022. The compound annual growth rate in personal resource abundance amounted to 2.7 percent, implying that personal resource abundance doubled every 26 years.

While the average of the time prices of the Basic 50 commodities fell by 65.5 percent, the world’s population increased by 79.4 percent. So, for every 1 percent increase in the world’s population, the average of the time prices of the Basic 50 commodities fell by 0.825 percent (-65.5 percent ÷ 79.4 percent = -0.825).

Note that the personal resource abundance analysis looks at resource abundance from the perspective of an individual human being. The question that we aim to answer is: “How much more abundant have resources become for the average inhabitant of the planet?”

Population resource abundance analysis, in contrast, allows us to quantify the relationship between the overall (or global) resource abundance and the overall (or global) population growth. You can use a pizza analogy to consider the difference between the two levels of analysis. Personal resource abundance measures the size of a slice of pizza per person, while population resource abundance adds up all the slices to measure the size of the entire pizza pie.

Population resource abundance is calculated by multiplying the growth in personal resource abundance by the growth in global population ([1 + percentage change in personal resource abundance] x [1 + percentage change in population]). The resulting product of 5.201 (2.9 x 1.794) corresponds to the 520.1 value in the SAI 2023. Consequently, we can also say that population resource abundance increased at a compound annual growth rate of 4 percent, thus doubling every 17.65 years.

Figure 2: Visualization of the Relationship between Global Population Growth and Personal Resource Abundance of the 50 Basic Commodities (1980–2022)

The figure shows the increase in personal resource abundance for 50 basic commodities since 1980.

Let us also say a few words about the resource abundance elasticity of population. In economics, elasticity measures one variable’s sensitivity to a change in another variable. If variable X changes by 10 percent, while variable Y, because of the change in X, changes by 5 percent, then the elasticity coefficient of X relative to Y is 2 (10 ÷ 5). A coefficient of 2 can be interpreted as a 2 percent change in X corresponding to a 1 percent change in Y.

We found that every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to an increase in personal resource abundance (the size of the slice of pizza) of 2.39 percent (190 ÷ 79.4). We also found that every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to an increase in population resource abundance (the size of the pizza pie) of 5.29 percent (420 ÷ 79.4).

Changes between 2021 and 2022

Over the last 12 months, the SAI declined from 539.3 to 520.1 or by 3.55 percent. While regrettable, last year’s decline was much smaller than the 22 percent drop in 2021, which was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related policies. That said, note that the index increased by an average 4.46 percent per year between 1980 and 2022.

Figure 3: The Simon Abundance Index, Annual Percentage Change (1980–2022)

The graph shows the average annual change in the Simon abundance index between 1980 and 2022.

Going forward we expect the SAI to start growing again in 2023. Humanity has witnessed shocks like those caused by the pandemic and experienced accompanying reductions in resource abundance before. Mercifully, history suggests that growth in the abundance of resources can be restored. The SAI, for example, grew by 28.4 percent, 20.0 percent, and 19.3 percent in 1986, 1985, and 2009, respectively.

Figure 4: The Simon Abundance Index, Percentage Change in Time Prices of Individual Resources (2021–2022)

The figure shows the percentage change in the time price of individual resources between 2021 and 2022.

Conclusion

Despite the recent decline in SAI, resource abundance is still increasing at a faster rate than the population is growing. We call that relationship superabundance. We explore this topic in our book Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet.

Additional Information

Appendix A: Alternative Figure 1 with a Regression Line, Equation, and R-Square.

The graph shows the Simon Abundance Index from 1980 to 2022 with a regression line.

Appendix B: The Basic 50 Commodities Analysis (1980–2022)

The figure gives more detail on the abundance of fifty commodities that compose the Simon Abundance Index.

Appendix C: The Basic 50 Commodities, Percentage Change in Personal Resource Abundance (1980–2022)

The figure shows the percentage change in personal resource abundance for fifty commodities

IEA | Energy Prices

Manufacturing Efficiency Gains Reduce Battery Prices

“Average battery prices declined by 8% in 2025, supported by continued improvements in manufacturing efficiency, advances and shifts in battery chemistries and technology, and intensifying global market competition. Relatively low critical mineral prices also contributed to downward cost pressure, although lithium and cobalt experienced notable price increases over the year. The recent increase in lithium and cobalt prices – if sustained – could put upward pressure on battery costs as stockpiles of minerals purchased at lower prices are being drained…

Over the past few years, the average battery price has decreased across all regions, but regional price disparities have widened. In 2025, battery pack prices in China were 30% lower than in North America, and 35% lower than in Europe, compared to a respective 20% and 25% in 2022.”

From IEA.

New York Times | Energy Prices

Cheap Solar Is Transforming Lives and Economies Across Africa

“South Africans like Dr. Booley have found a remedy for power cuts that have plagued people in the developing world for years. Thanks to swiftly falling prices of Chinese made solar panels and batteries, they now draw their power from the sun.

These aren’t the tiny, old-school solar lanterns that once powered a lightbulb or TV in rural communities. Today, solar and battery systems are deployed across a variety of businesses — auto factories and wineries, gold mines and shopping malls. And they are changing everyday life, trade and industry in Africa’s biggest economy.

This has happened at startling speed. Solar has risen from almost nothing in 2019 to roughly 10 percent of South Africa’s electricity-generating capacity.”

From New York Times.

Blog Post | Economic Freedom

What Richard Nixon’s Real Scandal Should Have Been

A decade of price-control misery

Summary: When President Nixon imposed wage and price controls in 1971, it created chaos. Gas shortages, rationing, and angry customers became daily realities, teaching one young gas station attendant how disastrous top-down economic planning can be. A decade later, when markets were finally freed, supply returned and abundance followed. The lesson endures: politicians create scarcity, but entrepreneurs and free markets create plenty.


Shortly after I turned 15, President Richard M. Nixon managed to make my life miserable. On Sunday August 15, 1971, against the advice of his economic counselors, and in total repudiation of his party’s campaign platform, he announced on national TV that he was suspending the gold standard, imposing a 10 percent tariff surcharge, and imposing wage and price controls.

At the time, I didn’t know a thing about macroeconomics. What I did know was how to make customers happy at my dad’s gas station: Fill their tanks fast, wash their windows, and send them off with a smile.

Nixon’s decision not only shook the foundations of global finance—it trickled all the way down to a teenager pumping gas on Main Street, teaching me firsthand how government policy can reach into everyday life. Nixon’s policies caused a decade of artificial shortages and almost destroyed my father’s business. As Robert Bleiberg, editor of Barron’s, noted at the time, “Price controls, as their advocates have claimed all along, do work like magic. They can make things disappear in the twinkling of an eye.” For me, Nixon’s policies meant no more happy customers, which translated to no more tips.

Like many gas station owners at the time, my dad decided to attempt rationing his limited allotment of fuel by restricting sales to only five gallons per customer. After waiting in line for sometimes more than an hour, most customers were furious to be told that they could only buy five gallons of gas. They took their anger out on their lowly attendant, not on the perpetrator of the calamity living in the White House.

The president, along with the politicians and corporate leaders who cheered for price controls, never had to face the fury of my customers. They could make sweeping decisions from behind their podiums and boardroom tables without ever paying the price for being wrong. As Thomas Sowell once put it, “It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.”

Price controls tied the hands of domestic producers while leaving foreign suppliers, such as OPEC, untouched. The result was the opposite of what policymakers had intended. Instead of fueling independence, the policies throttled domestic supply and handed foreign oil giants the keys to America’s energy future.

In 1981, just eight days after taking office, President Ronald Reagan swept away the federal price and allocation controls on domestic oil and refined products. Overnight, my decade of gas-line misery came to an end. Prices did rise—but for the first time in years, people could fill their tanks without rationing, limits, or fear of empty pumps. I learned a key lesson: Politicians create scarcities, entrepreneurs create abundances.

When oil prices surged in the early 2000s, entrepreneurs and markets responded with a wave of innovation. Breakthroughs such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing unlocked vast new oil reserves, unleashing a surge of supply. America’s unique system of private ownership of subsurface mineral rights—rather than government control—supercharged this revolution by giving landowners a direct stake in production. The results were astonishing: The United States, whose oil industry was once thought to be in irreversible decline, has become a net exporter of petroleum products.

Since 1950 the average time price for a gallon of gasoline has been around six minutes for blue-collar workers. We’re actually around five minutes today. The United States has some of the lowest gasoline time prices on the planet.

Yes, we’ve had periods where the price has spiked, typically due to political turmoil, but time and again, innovation and markets have responded by creating greater abundance. Julian Simon predicted such would be the case, as long as politicians and bureaucrats don’t impose “solutions” that have counter-productive consequences.

Nixon resigned on August 8, 1974, to avoid impeachment for his crime of covering up the Watergate break-in. But to me, his darker crime wasn’t in a hotel—it was in every gas station in America. His Soviet-style controls left behind a nation of frustrated, unhappy customers and pump attendants who bore the real cost of his misguided policies.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

World Health Organization | Energy Consumption

Energy Access Has Improved across the world

“Almost 92 percent of the world’s population now has access to electricity, in contrast to 87 percent in 2010. In 2023, increases in the number of people with access to electricity outpaced population growth, raising the rate of global access to 92 percent and reducing the number of people without electricity to 666 million—19 million fewer than the previous year…

The greatest growth in access between 2020 and 2023 occurred in Central and Southern Asia, while the pace of progress in Sub-Saharan Africa calls for significant acceleration.”

From World Health Organization.