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The Miracle that Is the Smartphone

Blog Post | Science & Technology

The Miracle that Is the Smartphone

In 1984, a cellphone weighed two pounds, took 10 hours to charge, and cost $10,277 in 2018 US dollars.

People looking at smartphone

Some people are dumping their smartphones and returning to old-fashioned hand-held devices. Eddie Redmayne did so in 2016, stating, “It was a reaction against being glued permanently to my iPhone during waking hours. The deluge of emails was constant.”

“Flip phones… are back, with low prices, great battery life and some modern conveniences,” noted The Wall Street Journal back in April. Smartphones can be addictive and everyone has a right to switch to a cell phone or no phone at all. That said, let’s remind ourselves of the positive changes that smartphones have brought into our lives.

In the 1987 Oliver Stone movie Wall Street, Gordon Gekko, an immensely wealthy investor played by the actor Michael Douglas, walks on a beach, watching the sunrise, and talking on his Motorola DynaTac 8000X phone. “I wish you could see this,” he says to his young protégé Bud Fox back in New York, “Light’s coming up. I’ve never seen a painting that captures the beauty of the ocean at a moment like this.” When it was released in 1983, DynaTac was the world’s first handheld mobile phone. It weighed two pounds, took 10 hours to charge and offered 30 minutes of talk time. In 1984, the phone cost $3,995. That’s $10,277 in 2018 US dollars.

As late as 1990, mobile phones were so expensive that only 2 per cent of Americans could afford them. In 2017, there were 225 million smartphones in the United States alone. Globally, the number of smartphone users is forecast to grow from 2.1 billion in 2016 to around 2.5 billion in 2019. Over time, mobile phones became smaller and cheaper. They also became much more powerful and useful. Today, a Nigerian coal miner in South Africa can use a phone app to send money to his mother in Lagos. A Congolese fisherman can be warned about approaching inclement weather. A Maasai herdsman can find out the price of milk in Nairobi. All of humanity’s knowledge, which took millennia to accumulate, can be accessed easily and instantaneously — via a smartphone.

Consider also the impact of smartphones on politics. From the Arab Spring in 2010, to the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2014, cell phones, smartphones and a variety of social media apps enabled ordinary people to access censored content and share it. Cellular technology enables the citizenry in authoritarian countries to communicate in encrypted ways and to organise. As Redmayne found out, cell phones come with traps of their own, but, when used wisely, they can be a tool of liberation.

Finally, consider dematerialisation — the process of declining consumption of goods and energy per unit of gross domestic product. The smartphone combines functions that previously required a myriad of separate devices, including a telephone, camera, radio, television set, alarm clock, newspaper, photo album, voice recorder, maps, compass, etc. The emergence of the smartphone does not mean that all the other devices will disappear. But we are using them less and less.

The potential savings in terms of energy and materiel are immense. According to one study, smartphones can reduce material use by a factor of 300. They can reduce power use by a factor of 100 and standby energy use by a factor of 30. They can also reduce the embodied energy use, which denotes energy consumed by all of the processes associated with the production of a building, from the mining and processing of natural resources to manufacturing, transport and product delivery, by a factor of 20.

Dematerialisation, in other words, should be welcome news for those who worry about the perceived conflict between the growing world population on the one hand and availability of resources on the other. While opinions regarding availability of resources in the future differ, dematerialisation can help us go on enjoying material comforts and be good stewards of our planet at the same time. That is particularly important with regard to the people in poor countries, who ought to have a chance to experience material plenty in an age of rising environmental concerns.

All in all, smartphones have brought many benefits to humanity. Whether we use them judiciously or injudiciously is up to us. That, of course, is the case with all technologies.

This first appeared in CapX.

Blog Post | Cost of Material Goods

The Rise of Contact Lens Abundance

Get almost 16 today for the time price of one in 1971.

Summary: Since the introduction of the first US commercial soft contact lenses, significant advancements have made them more accessible and affordable. This progress in abundance, driven by continuous innovation, underscores the importance of fostering an environment conducive to scientific and entrepreneurial advancements for the prosperity of society.


In 1971, Bausch & Lomb manufactured the first US commercial soft contact lenses. An eye doctor fitting ran around $550, and a pair of contact lenses cost $65, putting total costs around $615. Unskilled workers at the time earned about $2 an hour. This means the time price was about 307.5 hours.

Today an eye exam is about $120, and lenses start at $200 for a 12-month supply, putting the cost at $320. Unskilled workers now earn about $16.51 an hour, indicating a time price of 19.4 hours.

Unskilled workers can now get 15.9 sets of contact lenses for the time price of one set in 1971. Abundance has been growing at a compound annual rate of 5.35 percent, doubling in abundance every 13.3 years.

Today an estimated 45 million Americans wear contact lenses, of which 30 million are women. Imagine if the manufacturers of eyeglasses had used government regulation and coercion to prevent the innovation of contact lenses?

The more we make of something, the more we learn. The more we learn, the lower the price. The lower the price, the higher our standard of living. This truth was described by Adam Smith in 1776 in The Wealth of Nations.

And what is wealth? As George Gilder notes, “Wealth is knowledge and growth is learning.” The nation that is best at growing new knowledge will enjoy the greatest wealth. Artificial intelligence offers the hope that this learning process can be dramatically enhanced.

We can thank the continuous innovations of scientists and entrepreneurs in developing new contact lens designs and manufacturing techniques. America’s comparative advantage has been its visionary leadership in encouraging everyone in discovering and creating valuable new knowledge that can be shared in free markets. We cannot allow fear to blind us to these truths and prevent a future of innovation and greater prosperity.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 3/12/2024.

Blog Post | Cost of Material Goods

The Good Old Days Were Really Expensive

Most things are more abundant and affordable today.

If you had a dime in 1900, you could buy a 1-ounce Hershey chocolate bar and a 6.5-ounce bottle of Coca-Cola. It sounds like those were happy days indeed. That is until you look at wages, which were around 14 cents an hour for blue-collar workers.

At Walmart today, a 1.55-ounce Hershey bar costs $1.17 and a 1.25-liter bottle (42.27 ounces) of Coke is $1.52. Blue-collar workers earn closer to $36.15 an hour in compensation.

We buy things with money but pay for them with our time. Money prices are expressed in dollars and cents, while time prices are expressed in hours and minutes. A time price is simply the money price divided by hourly income.

In 1900, it took more than 21.4 minutes to earn an ounce of chocolate and 3.3 minutes for an ounce of Coca-Cola. By 2023, the chocolate time price had fallen to 1.25 minutes, and sodas were down to 0.06 minutes (3.58 seconds).

Chocolate cost fell 94.2 percent while cola cost fell 98.2 percent. For the time required to earn 1 ounce of chocolate in 1900, you get 17.1 ounces today, and for the time required to earn 1 ounce of Coca-Cola in 1900, you get 55.2 ounces today. Chocolate is 1,611 percent more abundant while cola is 5,425 percent more abundant.

Things can get more expensive and more affordable at the same time. This is why you must always compare prices to wages to see the true price, which is how much time things cost you.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 3/19/2024.

Blog Post | Energy Prices

Where Is Gasoline the Most Affordable?

Remember that it’s the time price, not the money price, that counts.

Summary: The affordability of gasoline varies significantly worldwide due to varying taxes and subsidies. Analyzing the GDP per hour worked against the money price per gallon shows that the United States emerges as the most affordable country for purchasing gasoline, even compared to nations where gasoline prices are heavily subsidized by the government.


According to GlobalPetrolPrices.com, the average price of gasoline around the world is USD5.03 per gallon. However, there is substantial difference in these prices among countries due to the various taxes and subsidies for gasoline. All countries have access to the same petroleum prices of international markets, but countries do not all impose the same taxes. As a result, the retail price of gasoline varies significantly.

Graph displays the gasoline price per gallon in US dollars in various countries

The money price of 16 selected countries ranges from $2.26 in Russia to $8.55 in Denmark. But what about the time price? To calculate the time price, we first calculated the GDP per hour worked in each country. The data to calculate this ratio come from the World Bank and the Conference Board.

Graph displays the GDP per hour worked in various countries

We then divided GDP per hour worked by the money price per gallon. This gave us the gallons of gasoline that one hour of work would buy in each country:

Graph displays the gallons of gasoline per GDP per hour worked in various countries

We also divided the nominal price per gallon by GDP per hour worked to get the minutes required per gallon:

This chart illustrates how much more expensive relative to the US the other 15 countries are in terms of time price:

Chart displays the cost in time price of gasoline in 15 countries

Of the 16 countries analyzed, the US is by far the most affordable place to buy gasoline. There are other countries where gasoline is more affordable, but the gasoline price in those countries is heavily subsidized by government.

Tip of the Hat: Jeremy Horpendahl

This article was published at Gale Winds on 4/1/2024.

Blog Post | Air Transport

Flying Abundance (And Safety) Has Increased Dramatically

Get 10.8 flights from New York to London today for the time price of one in 1970 and be 80.4 times safer.

Summary: Since the Wright brothers’ pioneering flight in 1903, the aviation industry has made remarkable strides in safety, affordability, and accessibility. Comparing flight prices from 1970 to today reveals a staggering 90.8 percent decrease in the time price of flying, with transcontinental flights now affordable for the average person. Additionally, advancements in aviation technology have made flying dramatically safer today than it was in 1970, and are likely to improve flying safety in the future.


The Wright brothers launched the era of aviation on December 17, 1903, with a 12-second flight. Since then, aeronautical engineers and market innovators have made the experience safer, faster, and much more affordable.

For example, in 1970 the price for a roundtrip ticket from New York to London was $550. Blue-collar workers at the time were earning around $3.93 an hour in compensation (wages and benefits). This suggests a time price of around 140 hours.

Today, the ticket price has dropped to around $467. Blue-collar workers are now earning closer to $36.15 an hour, putting the time price at 12.9 hours. The time price has fallen by 90.8 percent: for the time required to earn the money to buy one flight in 1970, you can get 10.8 flights today.

Flying abundance has increased by 980 percent, compounding at an annual rate of 4.5 percent over the last 54 years. During this same period the global population increased by 4.3 billion (117 percent), from 3.7 billion to more than 8 billion. Every 1 percentage point increase in population corresponded to an 8.4 percentage point increase in flying abundance.

Now transcontinental flights are affordable for almost everyone. Free-market entrepreneurial capitalism isn’t about making more luxuries for the wealthy, it’s about making luxuries affordable for the average person.

While it is true that the 1970s flights may have had roomier cabins and better dining, flying today is dramatically safer. The Aviation Safety Network tracks airline accident data. Revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) is a standard metric used in aviation. Using this data, Javier Mediavilla plotted the ratio of fatalities per trillion RPK from 1970 to 2019 using five-year averages. The ratio decreased by 98.76 percent, from 3,218 to 40, during this 49-year range. Flying is more than 80.4 times safer today than in 1970, and safety has been improving at a compound rate of around 9.37 percent a year.

Considering both the time price and safety, flying has become 868 times more abundant since 1970 (10.8 x 80.4 = 868). If there had been no innovation in flying since 1970,  New York to London airfare would be around $5,059 today. Only the rich could afford transatlantic flights in 1970.

The 3,442-mile flight takes around seven hours. The supersonic Concorde could fly it in less than three. While there are no commercial supersonic flights available today, Boom Supersonic, a private company based in Colorado, aims to bring them back to US airlines by 2029. Perhaps spending half as much time on flights will allow people to use their most valuable resource for other value-creating activities.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 3/26/2024.