“Three out of four countries are expected to have had a decline in poverty between 2021 and 2024. That headline hides significant variation, but it signals that a broad recovery took hold after the pandemic-era reversals.

Nearly all countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), East Asia and Pacific (EAP), and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) recorded declines in poverty.  These results are driven primarily by economic growth, which was positive for 81% of countries in 2024. This growth trend also extends to the years leading up to 2025. Between 2021and 2024, the average GDP growth rate was positive for 86% of countries.

The picture is mixed in low-income countries and in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions. About half of low-income countries (11 of 21), half of countries in MENAAP (4 of 8) and 40% of countries in SSA (18 of 46), are expected to have experienced rising poverty during this period. FCV countries faced the worst outcomes: only about one-third (8 of 23) saw improvements…

In 2025, 80% of countries are expected to see poverty fall, which if materialized would be the largest share of countries with declining poverty in 10 years. This progress also extends to low-income countries and FCV countries where 75% and 70% of countries, respectively, are expected to experience drops in poverty rates.

Notably, the projected improvement in household welfare is a result of the MPO model predicting that economic growth will be passed down to households. In 2025, 85% of countries are predicted to have a real increase in GDP growth rate, which tracks closely to the 80% of countries expected to witness declines in poverty.”

From World Bank.