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01 / 05
Matt Ridley: How Innovation Works For the Environment

Blog Post | Environment & Pollution

Matt Ridley: How Innovation Works For the Environment

The very incentives that drive private sector innovation also drive ever-greater economic and environmental efficiency.

It is a truth universally acknowledged that we live in a world of finite resources. However, this rather basic assertion is often misleadingly used by some climate activists. Take the “de-growth” crowd: they presume that indefinite growth, in a world of finite resources, is literally impossible. This is the basis of Extinction Rebellion’s self-proclaimed mission to overthrow capitalism: human progress and prosperity are considered intrinsically evil, and economic growth must first be halted, then reversed. Yet, as the British businessman Michael Liebreich has pointed out, as long as we have both solar and nuclear energy, which are virtually infinite, the supposed fairytale of eternal growth has real scientific backing.

Moreover, a lot of economic growth actually consists of physical shrinkage. We use 68% less land to produce a given amount of food than we did in 1961. We use less aluminum to make a soda can, less steel to make a car, and less energy to build a house than we once did. Our mobile phones include within them a whole desk full of objects that would have consumed far more resources to create in the past: a map, compass, flashlight, diary, address book, phone book, and so on.

More nuanced mainstream environmentalists promote a slightly different interpretation. They recognize that innovation and progress are desirable, but claim that the latter cannot be provided by the free market system, because capitalism inevitably turns toward exploitation and environmental abuse. This perspective ultimately displays a worrying lack of trust in human creativity, solidarity, and progress, although the latter kind of environmentalists at least accept the importance of innovation – despite their distrust of the free market.

The most common argument against free-market innovation is put forward by scholars such as the Italian-American economist Mariana Mazzucato, who argues in her 2015 book The Entrepreneurial State that state-led research and funding has been the basis of almost all modern innovation. The former, she believes, is required to solve issues such as climate change. However, as one of us has argued in his 2020 book How Innovation Works: And Why It Flourishes in Freedom, this is a misguided approach.

First, Mazzucato ignores the history of private innovation that drove the U.S. and Britain to the forefront of the global economy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, almost entirely without government subsidy. The fact that government funding has ended up supporting important innovations in the mid-to-late 20th century, especially in a military context, is unsurprising given that public spending quadrupled from 10 percent to 40 percent of national income. If you shoot enough arrows, it is likely that one will eventually hit the target.

Second, given the rather self-evident assessment that we only have access to a limited set of resources at any one point in time, it is equally unsurprising that mass government investment in certain innovations will crowd out other sources of investment. Indeed, Mazzucato acknowledges this risk when she writes that “top pharmaceutical companies are spending decreasing amounts of funds on R&D at the same time that the state is spending more.”

The assumption that all innovation comes from government spending therefore commits a basic economic fallacy. We simply cannot presume to know how these resources would have been otherwise allocated by rational self-interested, decentralized market actors. It is entirely likely that they would, in fact, be invested more efficiently by private companies with better local knowledge and incentives.

The evidence is compelling: in 2003, the OECD published a study called Sources of Economic Growth in OECD Countries, which found that between 1971 and 1998 the quantity of private R&D had a direct impact on the rate of economic growth, whereas the quantity of publicly funded research did not. The question thus becomes not whether the state can support innovation, which it clearly can, but whether it is better and more effective at doing so than market forces. Both history and statistical evidence favor the latter.

What, specifically, does that mean then for the environment? In the 2020 edited volume Green Market Revolution: How Market Environmentalism Can Protect Nature and Save the Planet, the Swedish author Johan Norberg argues that some developed economies have in fact reached “peak stuff,” meaning that now they use fewer material resources both per unit of economic output and in absolute terms.

The beauty of the free market system is that efficiency is almost always rewarded, because efficiency directly translates into greater profit and productivity. Indeed, researchers such as Jesse Ausubel of Rockefeller University have found that in 2015, the United States economy was using 40 percent less copper, 32 percent less aluminum, and 15 percent less steel compared to their peaks in the 1990s. The same principle applies to 66 out of 72 raw resources tracked by the U.S. Geological Survey, as the American researcher Andrew McAfee found in his 2019 book More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources―and What Happens Next. According to McAfee, resources have been declining in use as economic output has inversely increased. The list of efficiency gains goes on and on, from cropland acreage to water and fertilizers to plastic.

When the private sector has been allowed to innovate, it’s done so to tremendous gains for the environment. The shale gas revolution has given America the fastest falling carbon dioxide emissions of any large economy. Genetically modified crops have reduced the use of pesticides by an average of 37 percent. The invention of LED lightbulbs has reduced electricity consumption in lighting by 75 percent for a given output of light. In the latter case, this improvement was almost certainly delayed by the government’s insistence on mandating the use of compact fluorescent bulbs.

In contrast, government regulation tends to stifle innovation, as can be seen in the case of nuclear energy. Clean, reliable, safe, and requiring very few material resources, nuclear power has the potential to meet the modern economy’s energy needs several times over, while hitting our climate targets. Yet, it has been languishing for years, declining from 17.6 percent of global energy production in 1996, to 10 percent today.

Apocalyptic environmentalists and over-zealous regulators have all but strangled the trial and development of new nuclear reactors and designs. One study shows that new nuclear reactor regulations introduced in the 70s increased the quantity of piping per megawatt by 50 percent, steel by 41 percent, electrical cable by 36 percent, and concrete by 27 percent. Regulations have only increased since that time, and the licensing process lengthened. Nonetheless, the fact that private companies are now leading the charge on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), the newest generation of nuclear plants, bodes well. These smaller designs allow for greater experimentation, trial and error, and adaptation. But the government must stay out of the way.

Ultimately, where de-growth-ers view our limited resources as proof that economic progress is bad, and big-government lackeys see it as proof that private companies will not pursue sustainable progress, capitalists consider it the most compelling evidence in favor of allowing markets to innovate our way out of scarcity. Crucially, the very incentives that drive private sector innovation also drive ever-greater economic and environmental efficiency – serving both humanity and the planet well. Free markets are good for innovation, and innovation is good for the environment.

Washington Post | Health & Medical Care

FDA Authorizes AI-Driven Test to Predict Sepsis in Hospitals

“Bobby Reddy Jr. roamed a hospital as he built his start-up, observing how patient care began with a diagnosis and followed a set protocol. The electrical engineer thought he knew a better way: an artificial intelligence tool that would individualize treatment.

Now, the Food and Drug Administration has greenlighted such a test developed by Reddy’s company, Chicago-based Prenosis, to predict the risk of sepsis — a complex condition that contributes to at least 350,000 deaths a year in the United States. It is the first algorithmic, AI-driven diagnostic tool for sepsis to receive the FDA’s go-ahead.”

From Washington Post.

BBC | Conservation & Biodiversity

How AI is being used to prevent illegal fishing

“Global Fishing Watch was co-founded by Google, marine conservation body Oceana, and environmental group SkyTruth. The latter studies satellite images to spot environmental damage.

To try to better monitor and quantify the problem of overfishing, Global Fishing Watch is now using increasingly sophisticated AI software, and satellite imagery, to globally map the movements of more than 65,000 commercial fishing vessels, both those with – and without – AIS.

The AI analyses millions of gigabytes of satellite imagery to detect vessels and offshore infrastructure. It then looks at publicly accessible data from ships’ AIS signals, and combines this with radar and optical imagery to identify vessels that fail to broadcast their positions.”

From BBC.

Blog Post | Communications

The Forgotten War on Beepers

Before smartphones, beepers were in the crosshairs of parents, schools and lawmakers.

30 years before parents and lawmakers sought to save youth from smartphones via age limits and bans in schools, a similar conversation took place about a pre-cursor to the cellphone: pagers.

Through the 1980s pagers became increasingly popular with teens, and also: drug dealers. This fact would eventually drag the gadget into the existing moral panic about adolescent drug use of the era.

The pager panic began with a 1988 Washington Post report on the gadgets prevalence in the drug trade, quoting DEA and law enforcement officials. The piece was syndicated throughout the US under headlines like “Beepers flourish in drug business,” “Beepers Speed Drug Connections” and “Drug beepers: Paging devices popular with cocaine dealers.

The spread of the story stoked concerns that beepers in the hands of youths weren’t just a distraction – a common complaint from teachers – but also a direct line to drug dealers. One school district official told The New York Times: “How can we expect students to ‘just say no to drugs’ when we allow them to wear the most dominant symbol of the drug trade on their belts.”

How can we expect students to ‘just say no to drugs’ when we allow them to wear the most dominant symbol of the drug trade on their belts

The New York Times, 1988

In response schools, towns, states and even the Senate would pass rules against beepers. New Jersey prohibited beepers for under-18s entirely, possession could result in a 6-month jail-term – a law proposed by ex-policeman and Senator Ronald L. Rice.

A city ordinance in Michigan mandated 3-month jail terms for children caught in possession of one within school grounds. Chicago passed a ban that its Public Schools Security chief said would also reduce prostitution:

We’ve got girls 11 years old. They get a call and they’re out of school to turn a trick.

George Sims, Chicago Public Schools Security Chief , Associated Press

Other states proposed community service, fines and 1-year drivers license bans as punishment. Thousands of of young people were victims of these heavy handed prohibitions – some of which made headlines:

Some schools regularly referred students found with pagers to police, one 16-year-old – Stephanie Redfern – faced a disorderly persons charge. A 13-year-old was handcuffed. Chicago was particularly aggressive in its enforcement: over 30 children were arrested and suspended for ‘beeper violations’ in one police sweep at a school – many parents couldn’t locate their kids for more than 6-hours. This was just the start:

According to Police Lt. Randolph Barton – head of the Chicago public school patrol unit at the time – by April 1994 there had been 700 beeper arrests in Chicago schools, with the prior school year seeing 1000. Some still felt these numbers were too low:

Right now I don’t think enough people are being arrested for wearing or bringing beepers into Chicago schools.

Ald. Michael Wojcik (35th)

In 1996 a 5-year-old in New Jersey was suspended for taking a beeper on a school trip, outrage ensured – catching the attention of Howard Stern, leading to calls for the laws to be amended or repealed.

Even young adults didn’t escape the beeper prohibition: 18-year-old Anthony Beachum feared a jail term after trying to sell a beeper to a student on school grounds. State prosecutors sought a criminal conviction for Beachum – that would have barred him from his hopes of joining the military. The judge settled for probation and 10 hours of community service.

Hampton University required students register beepers with campus police, even though there was no evidence of them increasing drug access. VP of student affairs at the time would admit as much:

There is not a single case where I can make a connection between beepers and drugs.

Hampton University, VP of Student Affairs

Big Beeper Fights Back

The beeper backlash was a BIG problem for Motorola who had 80% of the pager market at the time. The company had a hit on its hands – that was introducing the brand to a whole new generation – so in 1994 it fought back, partly by rallying youth. A move reminiscent of TikTok’s recent lobbying tactics.

Motorola enlisted children of its employees to help design pro-beeper campaigns, emphasizing the importance of pagers as legitimate communication devices for the young. “Who better to help plan for the battle than teens themselves” one report on the efforts would say. At a week long event, one attendee came up with the slogan “Pages for All Ages.”

The company ran television ads promoting pagers as a tool for child parent communication and in 1996, partnered with PepsiCo to offer 500,000 pagers to youths at a low price.

The promotion angered lawmakers – like State Senator Ronald Rice – who’d been a leading player in the war on beepers. Around this time moves to over-turn bans emerged, by other lawmakers calling them outdated – partly fuelled by the suspension of a 5-year-old alluded to earlier. New Jersey would amend the law in 1996, but not repeal it.

Three decades later, the New Jersey law was still on the books. The original sponsor of the bill – Senator Ronald Rice – sought to repeal it in 2017 saying “Fast forward almost three decades and it’s no longer an issue.”

There is little evidence it ever was an issue, in-fact – the subsequent rise of cellphones in schools coincided with a massive reduction in youth drug taking, while causation has been suggested by some – it certainly serves as stronger evidence against the idea of mobile messaging increasing drug access.

Senator Ronald Rice passed away in 2023 – the New Jersey Pager ban still in place – months later The Washington Post editorial board would call on schools to ban cellphones entirely – part of a new moral panic about kids and digital devices, many of whose parents were once prohibited from bringing pagers to school.

Nod to Ernie Smith of Tedium.co the only other person to cover the beeper bans, a piece that helped highlight a few fun examples included in this piece.

This article was published at Pessimists Archive on 4/10/2024.