Apocalyptic Warnings About “Water Wars” Too Pessimistic
Freshwater reserves are falling but access to drinking water is up.
Marian L. Tupy —
The shenanigans in Flint, Michigan, made me think about people and water. Today, more people than ever have access to drinking water (see chart 1). Yet, freshwater reserves are falling throughout the world (see chart 2). What are we to make of these global trends?
As ever, the alarmists were well ahead of the curve. Back in college, I remember reading about the likelihood of a military conflict between Israel, Jordan and Syria over the water from the Jordan River. Turns out, water scarcity is much less of an issue in a region torn apart by sectarian strife, but a deluge of apocalyptic warnings continues unabated: “Water Wars,” “Water Wars: Privatization, Pollution And Profit,” “The Great Lakes Water Wars,” “Blue Gold: World Water Wars,” etc.
On the upside, it is useful to remember that 71 percent of the world’s surface is covered by water. The trick, therefore, is not to have access to “water” per se, but to have access to “drinkable water” (and agriculture-friendly water).
In the short run, there is space for more efficiency. Precision agriculture, such as that practiced in Israel, is a good start. But, in the long run, plentiful water is likely to depend on plentiful energy.
In some places, like the desert kingdoms of the Middle East, people get water by burning oil in desalination plants. Ideally, however, countries with plenty of sunshine will be able to switch to a more environmentally-friendly solar power in the future. The price of solar energy has dropped by 99.5 percent between 1977 and 2014. And while I am aware that solar is not yet price-competitive with fossil fuels, and suffers from well-known problems (cloudy days, space and storage), I am hopeful that in the not-too distant future humanity’s concern over freshwater resources will disappear thanks to solar power and desalination.
Over the past two centuries, humanity has become massively more prosperous, better educated, healthier, and more peaceful.
The underlying cause of this progress is innovation. Human innovation―whether it be new ideas, inventions, or systems―is the primary way people create wealth and escape poverty.
Our upcoming book, Heroes of Progress: 65 People Who Changed the World, explores the lives of the most important innovators who have ever lived, from agronomists who saved billions from starvation and intellectuals who changed public policy for the better, to businesspeople whose innovations helped millions rise from poverty.
If it weren’t for the heroes profiled in this book, we’d all be far poorer, sicker, hungrier, and less free―if we were fortunate enough to be alive at all.
Considering their impact on humanity, perhaps it’s time to learn their story?
Heroes of Progress Book Forum
On March 21st, the author of Heroes of Progress, Alexander Hammond, will present the book live at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. He will be joined by Marian Tupy, the editor of Human Progress, and Clay Routledge, the Archbridge Institute’s Vice President of Research, who will speak on the individual’s role in advancing human progress and the need for a cultural progress movement.
How Sewers Are Helping Us to Monitor Disease Outbreaks
“Traditionally, wastewater surveillance has involved the unpleasant and dangerous job of manually collecting samples. But in Queensland, each sewer is now equipped with an autosampler which gathers samples hourly over a 24-hour period. These are then blended together to produce a mixture which can be analysed in special facilities using PCR tests – a molecular technique that can be used to identify fragments of genetic material. In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now runs a national wastewater surveillance system to regularly test for a variety of pathogens, including monkeypox, using technology provided by Alphabet-owned Verily.”
1,000 Bits of Good News You May Have Missed in 2023
A necessary balance to the torrent of negativity.
Malcolm Cochran —
Reading the news can leave you depressed and misinformed. It’s partisan, shallow, and, above all, hopelessly negative. As Steven Pinker from Harvard University quipped, “The news is a nonrandom sample of the worst events happening on the planet on a given day.”
So, why does Human Progress feature so many news items? And why did I compile them in this giant list? Here are a few reasons:
Statistics are vital to a proper understanding of the world, but many find anecdotes more compelling.
Many people acknowledge humanity’s progress compared to the past but remain unreasonably pessimistic about the present—not to mention the future. Positive news can help improve their state of mind.
We have agency to make the world better. It is appropriate to recognize and be grateful for those who do.
Below is a nonrandom sample (n = ~1000) of positive news we collected this year, separated by topic area. Please scroll, skim, and click. Or—to be even more enlightened—read this blog post and then look through our collection of long-term trends and datasets.
Practice of Open Defecation Down by 68 Percent since 2000
“Since 2000, the number of people who practice open defecation has reduced by 68 percent. Still, around 420 million people, that is 5 percent of the global population, are still defecating in fields, forests, bodies of water or other open spaces.”