“Here’s the state of play for housing heading into the latter part of 2026. The two weakest states coming into the year – Florida and Texas – have signs of life. In Florida, inventory is down and sales are up. In Texas, inventory is stable and Austin is quickly getting “less bad.”

Nationally, inventory levels are stable. There are still fewer homes for sale now than there were prior to the pandemic. Most of the North and Midwest never even had a slump and still don’t have enough homes. The rise in mortgage rates is holding back improvement but generally not making conditions worse.

Both homebuilders and apartment managers showed more optimism this quarter than they have in years. Builders have reason to believe incentives have finally peaked and profit margins have bottomed. For apartments, occupancy is up and there’s no glut of supply coming any time soon.

And at the high end of the market, stock market wealth means it doesn’t matter where mortgage rates are.

But pockets of weakness remain. Cities like Seattle are still struggling. The entry-level market remains tough. Some metros and submarkets have a glut of inventory. Affordability obviously remains challenging for people who aren’t already rich.

But the housing recession that began in early 2022 is over.”

From The Housing Frame.