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01 / 05
Thousands of Deaths Averted in Taiwan Earthquake

Blog Post | Natural Disasters

Thousands of Deaths Averted in Taiwan Earthquake

A headline of progress that you might have missed.

Summary: Amidst the recent devastation caused by a significant earthquake in Taiwan on April 3, the nation’s response showcased its progress in earthquake readiness, often overlooked in the headlines. Since the 1999 Jiji earthquake, Taiwan has made substantial strides in fortifying its infrastructure, improving construction standards, and advancing early-warning systems. This can serve as a model for global disaster preparedness.


In the early hours of April 3, 2024, Taiwan was struck by a significant earthquake, with its epicenter located off the eastern coast. The quake, which was the strongest to hit Taiwan in 25 years and measured 7.4 on the Richter scale, sent tremors rippling across the island and awakened memories of past devastation. At the time this was published, the earthquake and subsequent tremors have claimed just under 20 lives and injured at least 1,099 people.

However, amid the destruction, injury, and loss of life, Taiwan’s response showcased a remarkable display of resilience and preparedness, underscoring the nation’s progress in earthquake readiness. It’s a story largely missing from the headlines.

For Taiwan, situated in the seismically active Ring of Fire in the Pacific Ocean, earthquakes are not unfamiliar. The island has endured numerous seismic events throughout its history, each leaving an indelible mark on Taiwan’s cities and people. The devastating 1999 Jiji earthquake, similar in magnitude to the April 3 quake, claimed more than 2,400 lives, injured more than 11,000 people, resulted in roughly $300 billion in damages, and caused widespread destruction; it served as a wake-up call for Taiwan to bolster its preparedness and earthquake response mechanisms.

In the decades since, Taiwan has made large strides in fortifying its infrastructure, implementing rigorous building codes, and fostering a culture of earthquake preparedness. These efforts were evident in the aftermath of the recent earthquake, where the impact, though significant, was mitigated in no small part by the progress Taiwan made toward earthquake readiness and response in the decades following the 1999 Jiji quake.

Image of the city of Taipei at night in the 8-bit art style
“Taipei 101 at night, in the style of 8-bit art—ar 16:9,” Midjourney, Generative Image AI, @tonymmorley

One of the cornerstones of Taiwan’s earthquake preparedness strategy is its robust infrastructure resilience. The country has invested heavily in constructing buildings, bridges, and critical infrastructure engineered to withstand seismic forces. Strict building codes, enforced through rigorous inspections and regulations, ensure that new structures adhere to stringent seismic standards. Additionally, retrofitting programs have been implemented to reinforce older buildings, reducing their vulnerability to earthquake damage. Such measures undoubtedly played a crucial role during the April 3 earthquake, preventing widespread collapse and minimizing casualties, injuries, and infrastructure damage.

Taiwan’s advanced early-warning system likely played a nontrivial role in mitigating the quake’s impact. The nation’s seismic network, comprising a dense array of sensors strategically positioned across the island, provides real-time data on seismic activity. This allows authorities to issue timely alerts, giving residents precious seconds to take cover and emergency services valuable time to prepare. The effectiveness of this system was demonstrated during the recent earthquake, with warnings disseminated swiftly, enabling individuals to seek shelter and prepare for the quake and, following aftershocks, minimizing the risk of injury. As an NBC News report says:

Taiwan’s sophisticated early-warning system is also an important part of its safety infrastructure. The system relies on an islandwide network of seismic instruments; when a large quake happens, the system sends messages to people’s phones and automatically cuts into live TV programming to give residents seconds of warning.

Taiwan’s success in preparing for and averting the worst-case scenario following such a large quake is part of a larger global trend of preparedness and resilience in the face of natural disasters. Annual deaths resulting from natural disasters of all types have been trending downward globally for over a century. Global economic growth has improved civilization’s capacity to build better structures, fortify critical infrastructure, and bolster emergency response, and the results are evident, both on the ground and in the data. In the last century, from 1920 to 2020, annual deaths from disasters fell from 523,892 to 41,046; still far too many individual human tragedies but also remarkable human progress.

Bar chart displaying the annual number of deaths from disasters between 1900 and 2020

Taiwan’s emphasis on public education and community preparedness has fostered a resilient society capable of responding effectively to seismic events. Through widespread awareness campaigns, educational programs, and drills, Taiwan has empowered its citizens with the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate emergencies confidently. Schools, workplaces, and households routinely conduct earthquake drills, ensuring that individuals are well versed in evacuation procedures.

Furthermore, Taiwan’s commitment to technological innovation has yielded groundbreaking solutions to enhance earthquake preparedness. The development of cutting-edge seismological research and monitoring technologies has enabled scientists to gain deeper insights into earthquake behavior, facilitating more accurate predictions and risk assessments. Additionally, advancements in engineering and construction techniques have led to the creation of innovative seismic-resistant materials and designs, further bolstering the resilience of infrastructure.

The recent earthquake in Taiwan serves as a sobering reminder of the ever-present threat posed by seismic activity. However, it also stands as a testament to Taiwan’s remarkable progress in earthquake and disaster preparedness. Through strategic investments, carefully considered regulation, and proactive measures, Taiwan has transformed itself into a global leader in earthquake resilience. The nation’s ability to withstand and recover from seismic events exemplifies the power of foresight, collaboration, and innovation in building a safer, more resilient future.

As Taiwan continues to navigate the complex challenges posed by natural disasters, the lessons gleaned from its experiences serve as invaluable guideposts for nations worldwide. By prioritizing preparedness, investing in resilient infrastructure, and building effective detection and communication systems, countries can mitigate the impact of earthquakes and safeguard the lives and livelihoods of their citizens. At the time of this writing, many families are still missing loved ones, and the economic costs and lives lost have yet to be fully understood. However, the progress in disaster preparedness made in the past two decades has undoubtedly saved many hundreds if not thousands of lives.

This article was published at the Progress Forum on 4/4/2024.

Axios | Natural Disasters

Google AI Weather Model Beats Most Reliable Forecast System

“Researchers have built an artificial intelligence-based weather forecast that makes faster and more accurate predictions than the best system available today.

GenCast, an AI weather program from Google DeepMind, performed up to 20% better than the ENS forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), widely regarded as the world leader.

In the near term, GenCast is expected to support traditional forecasts rather than replace them, but even in an assistive capacity it could provide clarity around future cold blasts, heatwaves and high winds, and help energy companies predict how much power they will generate from windfarms.

In a head-to-head comparison, the program churned out more accurate forecasts than ENS on day-to-day weather and extreme events up to 15 days in advance, and was better at predicting the paths of destructive hurricanes and other tropical cyclones, including where they would make landfall.”

From Axios.

The Debrief | Natural Disasters

Hurricane Forecasting to Get Major Machine Learning Upgrade

“As experts struggle to improve their models for hurricane prediction, the City University of Hong Kong researchers focused specifically on the prediction of the boundary layer wind field—the region of the atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface, where human activity and storm impact converge.

‘We human beings are living in this boundary layer, so understanding and accurately modeling it is essential for storm forecasting and hazard preparedness,’ Li said in a recent statement.

Modeling the boundary layer is particularly difficult because it involves interactions between air, land, ocean, and surface-level structures. Traditional forecasting methods rely on massive numerical simulations performed on supercomputers, incorporating vast observational data. Despite these efforts, predictions often fall short of the precision needed for effective disaster response.”

From The Debrief.

BBC | Energy Production

Why Scientists Are Drilling into Volcanos

“The Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT) intends to advance the understanding of how magma, or molten rock, behaves underground.

That knowledge could help scientists forecast the risk of eruptions and push geothermal energy to new frontiers, by tapping into an extremely hot and potentially limitless source of volcano power.”

From BBC.

The Atlantic | Energy Consumption

Hurricane Helene Just Made the Case for Electric Trucks

“When Hurricane Helene knocked out the power in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday, Dustin Baker, like many other people across the Southeast, turned to a backup power source. His just happened to be an electric pickup truck. Over the weekend, Baker ran extension cords from the back of his Ford F-150 Lightning, using the truck’s battery to keep his refrigerator and freezer running. It worked so well that Baker became an energy Good Samaritan. ‘I ran another extension cord to my neighbor so they could run two refrigerators they have,’ he told me.

Americans in hurricane territory have long kept diesel-powered generators as a way of life, but electric cars are a leap forward. An EV, at its most fundamental level, is just a big battery on wheels that can be used to power anything, not only the car itself. Some EVs pack enough juice to power a whole home for several days, or a few appliances for even longer. In the aftermath of Helene, as millions of Americans were left without power, many EV owners did just that. A vet clinic that had lost power used an electric F-150 to keep its medicines cold and continue seeing patients during the blackout. One Tesla Cybertruck owner used his car to power his home after his entire neighborhood lost power.”

From The Atlantic.