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01 / 05
The Canadian Child-Deaths Would Not Have Shocked Our Ancestors

Blog Post | Overall Mortality

The Canadian Child-Deaths Would Not Have Shocked Our Ancestors

Half of all children died before adulthood in archaic societies, one quarter before their first birthday and another quarter before the age of 15.

Summary: The recent discoveries of unmarked graves at former residential schools in Canada have shocked the world and exposed the brutal legacy of colonialism. However, for most of human history, such atrocities were common and accepted. This article argues that we should appreciate the human progress that has made us more sensitive to this suffering.


Revelations of graveyards containing the bodies of some 4,000 children from the First Nations in Canada have shocked the world. The dead were some of the 150,000 indigenous children sent or forcibly taken to residential schools meant to divorce the former from their birth culture.

The graves represent the injustice and misery of the past, but our reaction to them is proof of our advancement. In pre-industrial times, child deaths were so common that those graves wouldn’t have shocked anyone. In fact, a death rate of some three percent of children is low by historical standards. It was only in the past 50 or 60 years that the child mortality rate fell below 3 percent – even in rich countries.

The usual estimation is that half of all children died before adulthood in archaic societies, one quarter before their first birthday and another quarter before the age of 15, which is the end of puberty and our reasonable definition of becoming an adult. That seems to hold over all societies examined, including the Roman Empire, 18th century Britain, and all other groups of humans over time. (It is also, roughly speaking, true of the other Great Apes.)

This sorry state of affairs was brought to an end in three stages. The first stage was the discovery of infectious disease. John Snow, for example, showed that cholera cycled through the sewage and water systems. His discovery led to the single greatest aid to human health ever: the development of proper water systems, which provide fresh water and carry away sewage. Essentially, drains were the first step in reducing child mortality.

The second stage was the development of antibiotics. As late as 1924, an infected blister killed the U.S. President’s son. It wasn’t until the late 1930s that effective antibiotics were deployed at any scale. It took another decade to discover a treatment for tuberculosis, which was one of the great killers of the first half of the 20th century.

The third stage was the development of vaccines for common childhood diseases. Smallpox had been preventable since the 1790s with vaccination and through variolation before that. But polio remained a problem until the 1950s and measles into the 1960s. That last disease could, if unleashed against a population with no resistance at all, kill over 10 percent of people infected.

The combined effect of these discoveries – alongside better medical care, nutrition, shelter, and heating – has been a 100-fold reduction in youth mortality over the 20th century. The process isn’t finished yet. Far too many children still die due to a lack of access to clean water, antibiotics, and desirable immunizations. But those discoveries are all spreading, and, in that sense, the world is getting better at record speed.

In rich nations, such as Canada, Britain, the United States, the child mortality rate ranges from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent – down from 50 percent in human history. A significant portion of the remaining mortality is due to accident, not disease.

This article is not meant to diminish the pain of losing a child or to suggest that pain was lighter in the past because it was reasonable to expect to lose a child. Rather, it is to point out how that loss is so much less common today.

Nor is it implying that the First Nations children in Canada were treated acceptably. Rather, the above data is meant to remind the reader that previous generations of humans would have found nothing strange at all about graveyards full of children. That we find them shocking today is proof of human progress.

Today’s expectation, an entirely reasonable one, is that any child born today will live between 70 and 80 years. We’re in the first two or three generations of humans who ever existed where the assumption of reaching adulthood is better than a 50/50 break. How can that not be thought of as progress?

Ars Technica | Vaccination

New RSV Treatment Linked to Fall in Baby Hospitalizations

“Far fewer babies went to the hospital struggling to breathe from RSV, a severe respiratory infection, after the debut of a new vaccine and treatment this season, according to an analysis published today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention…

For the new study, CDC researchers looked at RSV hospitalization rates across two different RSV surveillance networks of hospitals and medical centers (called RSV-NET and NVSN). They compared the networks’ hospitalization rates in the 2024–2025 RSV season to their respective rates in pre-pandemic seasons between 2018 and 2020. The analysis found that among newborns (0–2 months), RSV hospitalizations fell 52 percent in RSV-NET and 45 percent in NVSN compared with the rates from the 2018–2020 period.”

From Ars Technica.

World Health Organization | Vaccination

A Novel Hybrid Vaccine Delivery Approach to Combat Malaria

“On World Malaria Day, Mali’s Ministry of Health, with support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), UNICEF and World Health Organization (WHO), launched a first-of-its-kind malaria vaccine delivery approach, aiming to reach children aged 5 to 36 months.

The country becomes the 20th in Africa to introduce the malaria vaccine into its routine immunization programme with support from Gavi. It is the first globally to implement a hybrid approach to vaccine delivery: providing the first three doses monthly throughout the year based on age, followed by the fourth and fifth doses given seasonally in May or June of the following years, before the high malaria transmission season starts. Providing malaria vaccine doses seasonally is a strategic approach, as it aligns the period of highest vaccine protection with the period of highest malaria risk, and evidence, including research from Mali, shows it maximizes impact. 

The R21/Matrix-M vaccine will initially be rolled out in 19 priority districts across five regions: Kayes, Koulikoro, Mopti, Ségou and Sikasso. The country currently has 927,800 R21/Matrix-M vaccines for introduction.”

From World Health Organization.

World Health Organization | Communicable Disease

Progress Toward Malaria Elimination

“In the late 1990s, world leaders laid the foundation for remarkable progress in global malaria control, including preventing more than 2 billion cases of malaria and nearly 13 million deaths since 2000.

To date, WHO has certified 45 countries and 1 territory as malaria-free, and many countries with a low burden of malaria continue to move steadily towards the goal of elimination. Of the remaining 83 malaria-endemic countries, 25 reported fewer than 10 cases of the disease in 2023…

Years of investment in the development and deployment of new malaria vaccines and next-generation tools to prevent and control malaria are paying off.

On World Malaria Day, Mali will join 19 other African countries in introducing malaria vaccines—a vital step towards protecting young children from one of the continent’s most deadly diseases. The large-scale rollout of malaria vaccines in Africa is expected to save tens of thousands of young lives every year.

Meanwhile, the expanded use of a new generation of insecticide-treated nets is poised to lower the disease burden. According to the latest World malaria report, these new nets—which have greater impact against malaria than the standard pyrethroid-only nets—accounted for nearly 80% of all nets delivered in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023, up from 59% the previous year.”

From World Health Organization.

Gavi | Vaccination

Malaria Vaccination Sees Child Deaths Drop in Kenya’s Lake Region

“Gumbo, the [Lake Region Economic Block] health pillar lead, reports that the vaccine, alongside other existing malaria interventions, has helped all-cause mortality among children to drop in this region.

He says that while the counties are yet to release official data on the same, statistics from hospitals within have shown a great reduction of prevalence of severe malaria.

‘We might be having hospitalisation of vaccinated children with malaria, but the severity has reduced, their chances of survival are also higher,’ he said.”

From Gavi.