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01 / 05
Is This the Best Time to Be Alive?

Blog Post | Wellbeing

Is This the Best Time to Be Alive?

Overwhelming evidence shows that we are richer, healthier, better fed, better educated, and even more humane than ever before.

Imagine, if you will, the following scenario. It is 1723, and you are invited to dinner in a bucolic New England countryside, unspoiled by the ravages of the Industrial Revolution. There, you encounter a family of English settlers who left the Old World to start a new life in North America. The father, muscles bulging after a vigorous day of work on the farm, sits at the head of the table, reading from the Bible. His beautiful wife, dressed in rustic finery, is putting finishing touches on a pot of hearty stew. The son, a strapping lad of 17, has just returned from an invigorating horse ride, while the daughter, aged 12, is playing with her dolls. Aside from the antiquated gender roles, what’s there not to like?

As an idealized depiction of pre-industrial life, the setting is easily recognizable to anyone familiar with Romantic writing or films such as Gone with the Wind or the Lord of the Rings trilogy. As a description of reality, however, it is rubbish; balderdash; nonsense and humbug. More likely than not, the father is in agonizing and chronic pain from decades of hard labor. His wife’s lungs, destroyed by years of indoor pollution, make her cough blood. Soon, she will be dead. The daughter, the family being too poor to afford a dowry, will spend her life as a spinster, shunned by her peers. And the son, having recently visited a prostitute, is suffering from a mysterious ailment that will make him blind in five years and kill him before he is 30.

For most of human history, life was very difficult for most people. They lacked basic medicines and died relatively young. They had no painkillers, and people with ailments spent much of their lives in agonizing pain. Entire families lived in bug-infested dwellings that offered neither comfort nor privacy. They worked in the fields from sunrise to sunset, yet hunger and famines were common. Transportation was primitive, and most people never traveled beyond their native villages or nearest towns. Ignorance and illiteracy were rife. The “good old days” were, by and large, very bad for the great majority of humankind. Since then, humanity has made enormous progress—especially over the course of the last two centuries.

How much progress?

Life expectancy before the modern era, which is to say, the last 200 years or so, was between ages 25 and 30. Today, the global average is 73 years old. It is 78 in the United States and 85 in Hong Kong.

In the mid-18th century, 40 percent of children died before their 15th birthday in Sweden and 50 percent in Bavaria. That was not unusual. The average child mortality among hunter-gatherers was 49 percent. Today, global child mortality is 4 percent. It is 0.3 percent in the Nordic nations and Japan.

Most of the people who survived into adulthood lived on the equivalent of $2 per day—a permanent state of penury that lasted from the start of the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago until the 1800s. Today, the global average is $35—adjusted for inflation. Put differently, the average inhabitant of the world is 18 times better off.

With rising incomes came a massive reduction in absolute poverty, which fell from 90 percent in the early 19th century to 40 percent in 1980 to less than 10 percent today. As scholars from the Brookings Institution put it, “Poverty reduction of this magnitude is unparalleled in history.”

Along with absolute poverty came hunger. Famines were once common, and the average food consumption in France did not reach 2,000 calories per person per day until the 1820s. Today, the global average is approaching 3,000 calories, and obesity is an increasing problem—even in sub-Saharan Africa.

Almost 90 percent of people worldwide in 1820 were illiterate. Today, over 90 percent of humanity is literate. As late as 1870, the total length of schooling at all levels of education for people between the ages of 24 and 65 was 0.5 years. Today, it is nine years.

These are the basics, but don’t forget other conveniences of modern life, such as antibiotics. President Calvin Coolidge’s son died from an infected blister, which he developed while playing tennis at the White House in 1924. Four years later, Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin. Or think of air conditioning, the arrival of which increased productivity and, therefore, standards of living in the American South and ensured that New Yorkers didn’t have to sleep on outside staircases during the summer to keep cool.

So far, I have chiefly focused only on material improvements. Technological change, which drives material progress forward, is cumulative. But the unprecedented prosperity that most people enjoy today isn’t the most remarkable aspect of modern life. That must be the gradual improvement in our treatment of one another and of the natural world around us—a fact that’s even more remarkable given that human nature is largely unchanging.

Let’s start with the most obvious. Slavery can be traced back to Sumer, a Middle Eastern civilization that flourished between 4,500 BC and 1,900 BC. Over the succeeding 4,000 years, every civilization at one point or another practiced chattel slavery. Today, it is banned in every country on Earth.

In ancient Greece and many other cultures, women were the property of men. They were deliberately kept confined and ignorant. And while it is true that the status of women ranged widely throughout history, it was only in 1893 New Zealand that women obtained the right to vote. Today, the only place where women have no vote is the Papal Election at the Vatican.

A similar story can be told about gays and lesbians. It is a myth that the equality, which gays and lesbians enjoy in the West today, is merely a return to a happy ancient past. The Greeks tolerated (and highly regulated) sexual encounters among men, but lesbianism (women being the property of men) was unacceptable. The same was true about relationships between adult males. In the end, all men were expected to marry and produce children for the military.

Similarly, it is a mistake to create a dichotomy between males and the rest. Most men in history never had political power. The United States was the first country on Earth where most free men could vote in the early 1800s. Prior to that, men formed the backbone of oppressed peasantry, whose job was to feed the aristocrats and die in their wars.

Strange though it may sound, given the Russian barbarism in Ukraine and Hamas’s in Israel, data suggests that humans are more peaceful than they used to be. Five hundred years ago, great powers were at war 100 percent of the time. Every springtime, armies moved, invaded the neighbor’s territory, and fought until wintertime. War was the norm. Today, it is peace. In fact, this year marks 70 years since the last war between great powers. No comparable period of peace exists in the historical record.

Homicides are also down. At the time of Leonardo Da Vinci, some 73 out of every 100,000 Italians could expect to be murdered in their lifetimes. Today, it is less than one. Something similar has happened in Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, Scandinavia, and many other places on Earth.

Human sacrifice, cannibalism, eunuchs, harems, dueling, foot-binding, heretic and witch burning, public torture and executions, infanticide, freak shows and laughing at the insane, as Harvard University’s Steven Pinker has documented, are all gone or linger only in the worst of the planet’s backwaters.

Finally, we are also more mindful of nonhumans. Lowering cats into a fire to make them scream was a popular spectacle in 16th century Paris. Ditto bearbaiting, a blood sport in which a chained bear and one or more dogs were forced to fight. Speaking of dogs, some were used as foot warmers while others were bred to run on a wheel, called a turnspit or dog wheel, to turn the meat in the kitchen. Whaling was also common.

Overwhelming evidence from across the academic disciplines clearly shows that we are richer, live longer, are better fed, and are better educated. Most of all, evidence shows that we are more humane. My point, therefore, is a simple one: this is the best time to be alive.

World Bank | Poverty Rates

Global Poverty Update: Revised Estimates up to 2024

“In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic reversed the historic progress in poverty reduction in all regions, except Latin America and the Caribbean where governments used fiscal stimulus to alleviate economic hardship for low-income households. In the subsequent years, economic recovery occurred, though unevenly across countries and regions.

By now, global extreme poverty has returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, low- and lower-middle-income countries have been less resilient, facing additional shocks from inflationary pressures following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which slowed down their pace of economic recovery. The Middle East and North Africa region experienced the largest regression in extreme poverty over the past few years, even before COVID-19, primarily due to fragility in the region, compounded by a lack of consistent and recent data.”

From World Bank.

Blog Post | Wealth & Poverty

How Nations Escape Poverty | Podcast Highlights

Chelsea Follett interviews Rainer Zitelmann about the ideas, attitudes, and policies that allowed Poland and Vietnam to escape poverty.

Listen to the podcast or read the full transcript here.

Get Rainer Zitelmann’s new book, How Nations Escape Poverty, here.

Tell me about your book, How Nations Escape Poverty, and what inspired you to write it.

During my research, I found a connection between attitudes towards rich people and poverty. Countries that are very successful economically have, in most cases, a much more positive attitude toward wealth and rich people than other countries. I’ll give you one example: China. China calls itself a communist country, but in 1981, it started free-market reforms and introduced private property. It was a huge success. The number of people living in extreme poverty in China decreased from 88 percent in 1981 to less than 1 percent today. And it started with Deng Xiaoping’s slogan, “let some people become rich first.”

Then another thing: I studied the Index of Economic Freedom from the Heritage Foundation. For those unfamiliar with it, it’s what I call the capitalism ranking. At the top, you find countries like Singapore and Switzerland, and at the bottom, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba. In my opinion, what’s most important is not a country’s absolute position in the ranking but how that position has changed over time. And if you analyze the years between 1995, when the index began, to today, you see that Poland and Vietnam have gained an enormous amount of economic freedom.

Adam Smith was right that the best recipe against poverty is economic growth, not redistribution or government regulation. He also understood that the most important precondition for economic growth is economic freedom. Poland and Vietnam are two examples of this. These countries were once very poor. Vietnam was the poorest country in the world in 1990. Poland was one of the poorest countries in Europe. And now it’s amazing. Poland has been Europe’s economic growth champion for the past three decades, and Vietnam has also become very prosperous.

Many people do not agree with Adam Smith’s view. How do you respond to them?

Imagine a test tube with two ingredients: market and state. Poland and Vietnam are examples of what happens if you add more market, but you can also see what happens if you add more state. One example is Argentina.

Argentina, 100 years ago, was one of the richest countries in the world. Then, they started with these crazy Peronist policies, more state redistribution, and so on. Today, 40 percent of Argentinians live in poverty. It’s a terrible story.

Another example is Venezuela, which was, in the 1970s, one of the richest countries in the world. Then, they started with more regulation, labor market regulation, and so on, and the situation became worse. But Venezuelans drew the wrong conclusion. They voted for a socialist, Hugo Chavez, in 1998. It was not so bad in the first few years because oil prices were high. But then they started with all the crazy things that socialists do, and the result was a one million percent inflation rate. Today, 25 percent of Venezuela’s population has fled the country. Those who stayed now live in poverty.

So, what does help fight poverty?

Many people think redistribution is the way to fight poverty and that rich countries—the United States and Europe—should give a lot of money to poor countries. But they’ve tried this for over 50 years, and it hasn’t worked. You can see this if you compare Africa and Asia. Africa is still very poor today, while in Asia, we saw a lot of progress, even though Asia received far less development aid than Africa. The reason for the economic growth in Asian countries was not development aid but capitalism.

And another thing is important: Today, many people claim they are poor because of colonialism, the West, slavery, and so on. But people in Vietnam are much more pragmatic. They could blame others—they were at war, not only with the United States, but also with Japan, France, and China— but they don’t. On the contrary, people in Vietnam love the United States, you see it in the polls. They don’t look to the past. They don’t blame other countries or other people. Instead, they look within themselves.

If you have a victim mentality and you always blame other people for your problems, you will never be successful. But if you take responsibility, not only for your successes but also for your failures, then you will be successful. It’s the same with countries. Vietnam is a very good example of this attitude.

Tell me more about Vietnam.

A lot of people don’t know much about Vietnam. Sometimes, I ask people, how many people live in Vietnam? They tell me, “20 million, 30 million.” No, it’s almost 100 million. It’s one of the biggest countries in the world.

Of course, a lot of people know about the war, but not everyone knows how terrible it was. Vietnam had ten times more bombs and explosives dropped on it by the United States than Germany did in the Second World War. Almost everything was destroyed, and what was not destroyed by the war was later destroyed by the planned economy. At the end of the 1980s, 80 percent of the people in Vietnam lived in poverty. Today, it’s 5 percent.

The reason for this positive development is that the people in Vietnam are smart. They tried a planned economy, but it created a lot of problems. They had a 600 percent inflation rate; there was widespread poverty, and people were going hungry. They tried to reform the socialist system, but that failed. Then, in 1986, the Communist Party decided on more economic freedom. They didn’t abolish the planned economy overnight, but, step by step, they introduced private property, opened the economy to the world, and ripped out a lot of crazy regulations. And then, step by step, standards of living increased. Over the years and now over the decades, everything changed in Vietnam.

Another important thing was that they changed how they think about inequality and rich people. Vietnam calls herself a socialist country and has a leading communist party, but I can guarantee you it’s harder to find a Marxist in Vietnam than at Harvard University. For example, I was invited to Vietnam’s prestigious Foreign Trade University for a workshop, “How can we improve the image of wealthy people?” I’ve never been invited to a similar workshop in the United States or Europe.

For this book, I commissioned two polls in Vietnam, one about the image of capitalism and the other about the image of rich people. We did this research in 13 countries, and the Vietnamese had the most positive attitude towards wealth and rich people. In most countries, even the word capitalism has a negative connotation, but in Vietnam, capitalism has a positive connotation. We asked people in Vietnam, “What economic system do you admire?” At the bottom of the list were China and North Korea. At the top of the list were countries like Japan and South Korea, and for young people, even the United States.

However, in terms of political freedom, it’s not great in Vietnam. Economically, there were a lot of good changes, but politically, it more or less remained the same. It’s a one-party system, there’s no freedom of press. It’s not as repressed as China, but you can’t compare it with Europe or the United States.

Now tell me about Poland.

In the 1980s, under socialism, Poland was a very poor country. Very few people had a telephone, car, or washing machine. Poland was even poorer than Ukraine at the time. Their GDP per capita was only half of the Czech Republic’s. They also had a very high inflation rate and a lot of debts to foreign capitalist countries. And one important difference between Vietnam and Poland is that Poland had a political revolution.

After socialism was abolished at the end of the 1980s, Poland had good luck because there was a reformer named Balcerowicz. He’s the Ronald Reagan or the Maggie Thatcher of Poland. Balcerowicz’s economic reforms were called “Shock Therapy.” From one day to the other, he introduced private property, tax reforms, and deregulation. In short, he abolished socialism and implemented a capitalist system. And what happened?

This is the problem. After these economic reforms, in the first two or three years, things became worse. For example, hidden unemployment became official unemployment. In socialist countries, there was officially zero unemployment, but people did crazy, senseless jobs, so it was hidden unemployment. After shock therapy, this hidden unemployment becomes official unemployment. There was also a reduction in the GDP and many other problems. You can imagine that the people from the other parties and the press who didn’t agree with his reforms were very critical. This was a very difficult time for Balcerowicz. In Vietnam, it was easier because there were no other parties who could criticize the reforms. There was no freedom of the press, so no newspapers could criticize it. But in Poland, Balcerowicz had to handle this criticism. Thankfully, he succeeded, and in the following decades, things became so much better.

I quote a book very often in my book; the title is Europe’s Growth Champion. And this is true: Poland has been Europe’s growth champion for three decades. But the problem is that sometimes people forget why their country became successful and call for more government. This happened in the United States and Europe. And this, unfortunately, happened in Poland. People voted for the Law and Justice Party, and they governed from 2015 to December 2023. They stopped privatization and even started to nationalize some things. They started redistribution programs. The good news is that in the last elections, they voted for the opposition. We will see what happens now. I hope they go back to the path that made Poland so successful.

Do you have anything else to say about Poland before we move on to your concluding thoughts?

Yes, I want to add something. I commissioned the biggest poll ever done about the image of the market economy and capitalism with one of the leading polling institutes in the world, Ipsos MORI.

People in Poland had the highest opinion of the market economy and capitalism. The United States was number two, but there was a huge difference between old and young people. I commissioned another poll about the image of rich people to compare how envious people are in different countries. The most envious people are in France, followed by Germany. People in Poland and Vietnam are on the other side of the distribution. They are not envious of the rich. For them, rich people are role models rather than scapegoats.

I think this is a very important result. In the United States, some years ago, protestors positioned a guillotine in the front of the mansion of Jeff Bezos to show what they would like to do with him. Now imagine two different people. One person joins a group to build this guillotine, and the other orders a biography of Jeff Bezos to learn how he became so wealthy. Who do you expect will be more successful in five years? If you want to change your life, you have to start by changing your mindset. But it’s not only true for an individual. It’s also true for a country. This is why what think tanks do is so important. The change, for example, with Reagan, started with people like Milton Friedman. The change in the UK with Maggie Thatcher started with the Adam Smith Institute and the Institute for Economic Affairs. Milei’s election in Argentina was thanks to the work that think tanks in Argentina had been doing for years.

This is also how the anti-capitalists and leftists became successful. They understand the importance of marketing and public relations. I think we can learn something from them. They are able to sell their crazy ideas in spite of the fact that more than 100 million people died as a result of socialist experiments. We should be able to explain to people that capitalism is the route out of poverty. This is the message of my book.

The Human Progress Podcast | Ep. 52

Rainer Zitelmann: How Nations Escape Poverty

World-renowned historian and sociologist Rainer Zitelmann joins Chelsea Follett to discuss the ideas, attitudes, and policies that allowed Poland and Vietnam to escape poverty.

National Economic and Development Authority | Poverty Rates

The Philippines Makes Significant Progress in Poverty Reduction

“Philippines has made remarkable strides in reducing poverty levels between 2021 and 2023, marking significant progress toward the government’s ambitious target of reducing poverty incidence to a single-digit level by 2028, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).

The 2023 Full Year Official Poverty Statistics, released today, July 22, by the Philippine Statistics Authority, showed that the poverty incidence among the population significantly dropped to 15.5 percent from 18.1 percent in 2021. This translates to a decrease of 2.45 million Filipinos living in poverty.”

From National Economic and Development Authority.