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01 / 05
Heroes of Progress, Pt. 42: Vasili Arkhipov

Blog Post | Nuclear Weapons

Heroes of Progress, Pt. 42: Vasili Arkhipov

Introducing the Soviet naval officer whose actions likely prevented an all-out nuclear war, Vasili Arkhipov.

Today marks the 42nd installment in a series of articles by HumanProgress.org titled Heroes of Progress. This bi-weekly column provides a short introduction to heroes who have made an extraordinary contribution to the well-being of humanity. You can find the 41st part of this series here.

This week, our hero is Vasili Arkhipov–a Soviet naval officer who refused to allow a Soviet nuclear strike on a U.S. aircraft carrier during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Arkhipovs actions likely prevented an all-out nuclear war, the consequences of which would have included the deaths of millions, if not billions, of innocent people, a collapse of many nation states and their economies, and an enormous amount of environmental damage. Aptly, the U.S. National Security Archive has dubbed Arkhipov a man who saved the world.”

Vasili Arkhipov was born on January 30, 1926, to a peasant family in Staraya Kupavna – a small town on the outskirts of Moscow. After a typical public-school education, Arkhipov enrolled in the Pacific Higher Naval School – a facility that trained Soviet naval officers in 1942. Arkhipov first saw military action during the Soviet-Japanese War in August 1945, when he served aboard a minesweeper. In 1947, Arkhipov graduated from naval school and went on to serve on submarine vessels in the Black Sea and the Baltic.

In 1961, Arkhipov was appointed as the executive officer of the USSR’s new nuclear ballistic missile submarine (K-19). During its maiden voyage, the submarines nuclear cooling system developed a leak that threatened to cause the nuclear reactor to melt down. In the face of a potential mutiny, Arkhipov backed the captain and ordered the engineering crew to develop a technical solution to avoid a nuclear meltdown. The crew were forced to build an emergency coolant system on the fly. The solution required many of the men to work in high levels of radiation for extended periods of time, and although the engineers managed to save the ship and prevent a meltdown, the entire crew, including Arkhipov were irradiated. Due to exposure to high levels of radiation, all the members of the engineering crew died within a month. Yet that momentous event pales in comparison to what Arkhipov experienced the following year.

On October 1, 1962, Arkhipov was made commodore of a flotilla of four submarines that had been ordered to travel from Russia to Cuba. Arkhipov was also appointed sub-commander of the B-59 attack submarine that he was traveling on. The B-59 had twenty-two torpedoes, one of which was nuclear and possessed roughly the same destructive power as the nuclear bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Unknown to the crew of the four submarines, the United States implemented a naval blockade of Cuba on October 4 and told the Soviets that U.S. forces would drop depth charges (explosive warning shots) on any Soviet submarine in Cuban waters to  force the vessels to surface. Due to lack of radio communications, Moscow was unable to relay that information to Arkhipovs crew.

On October 27, a group of eleven U.S. Destroyers and an American aircraft carrier, the USS Randolph, located Arkhipovs submarine off the coast of Cuba and began pummeling the submarine with signaling depth charges. Arkhipovs submarine was too deep underwater to receive any radio traffic, and with each depth charge causing the submarine to shake uncontrollably, those onboard did not know whether a war had already broken out. On board the submarine, the air conditioning system had broken and temperatures in some sections of the ship reached over 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius). The regeneration of air supply worked poorly, and the rising levels of carbon dioxide caused many of the weary crew, who had already been traveling onboard the ship for almost four weeks, to faint from overheating.

During that strenuous situation, the captain of the submarine, Valentin Savitsky, believed that the American navy was firing bombs on their ship and decided that war between the two countries had already broken out. Savitsky ordered the nuclear-tipped torpedo to be readied and aimed at the USS Randolph. The political officer onboard, Ivan Maslennikov, agreed with the captains decision. Usually, Russian submarines armed with nuclear weapons only required the permission of the captain and the political officer in order to launch their nuclear torpedo. However, due to Arkhipovs position as commodore, the captain was also required to gain Arkhipovs approval.

Arkhipov refused to approve the launch of the nuclear torpedo and an intense argument broke out among three officers. Later Soviet intelligence reports quote the captain as saying, Were gonna blast them now! We will die, but we will sink them all. We will not disgrace our navy.” However, Arkhipov refused to budge and argued that, as no orders had come from Moscow, such extreme measures would be ill-advised. Instead, he advised that the submarine should surface and contact the naval headquarters. Arkhipov was eventually successful in persuading the captain and, as the submarine rose to the surface, it was met by a U.S. destroyer which ordered it to immediately return to the Soviet Union.

As the American forces didnt board the submarine or undertake any inspection, they were not aware that the submarine was armed with a nuclear torpedo. The U.S. navy, and indeed the wider public, only found out about the B-59s nuclear capabilities and the full tale of Arkhipovs actions in 2002, when the former belligerents met in Cuba for the 40th anniversary of the crisis. When discussing the Cuban Missile Crisis, Arthur Schlesinger, an American historian and former advisor John F. Kennedy, stated that “This was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in human history.”

Upon their return to Russia, the crew of the submarine were met with criticism from their superiors, as some officers viewed the act of surfacing as one of surrender. One admiral told Arkhipov it would have been better if youd gone down with your ship.” After the events of October 1962, Arkhipov continued his navy service. He was promoted to rear admiral in 1975 and became head of the Kirov Naval Academy. In 1982, he was promoted to vice admiral and retired a few years later. Arkhipov settled in a small town near Moscow and died on August 19, 1998 of kidney cancer that may have been caused by the radiation that he was exposed to while onboard the K-19 in 1961.

Had Arkhipov not been on that specific B-59 submarine that October in 1962 or had he given in to pressure from the other officers, the submarines nuclear torpedo would have vaporized the USS Randolph. That, notes Russian archivist Svetlana Savranskaya, would have started a chain of inadvertent developments, which could have led to catastrophic consequences.” According to plans laid out by the Soviets and the United States, the likely first targets of a nuclear war would have been Moscow, London, airbases across the U.K. and troop concentrations in Germany. The next wave of bombs would have wiped out economic targets” (i.e., civilian populations) across the world.

Arkhipov received little recognition during his lifetime, but to his wife Olga, Vasili was always a hero. In a 2012 PBS documentary titled The Man Who Saved the World, Olga Arkhipov said, The man who prevented a nuclear war was a Russian submariner. His name was Vasili Arkhipov. I was proud and I am proud of my husband, always.” Thanks to Arkhipov, nuclear war was averted, and many lives were saved. For that reason, Vasili Arkhipov is our 42nd Hero of Progress.

Human Rights Watch | Interstate Conflict

Cluster Munitions: Peru Destroys Stockpiled Weapons

“Peru’s destruction of its stocks of cluster munitions is a major milestone for the international treaty banning the weapons, Human Rights Watch said today. Peru was the last state party to complete this crucial obligation, highlighting the global rejection of cluster munitions, even as countries that have not joined the Convention on Cluster Munitions continue to use, produce, and transfer them.”

From Human Rights Watch.

New York Times | Interstate Conflict

Greece and Turkey, Long at Odds, Vow to Work Together Peacefully

“After years of tensions between Greece and Turkey, the countries’ leaders signed a ‘declaration on friendly relations and good neighborliness’ on Thursday, in what they described as a bid to set the two neighboring, rival nations on a more constructive path. The eventual goal, they said, was to resolve longstanding differences, which in recent decades have brought them to the brink of military conflict.”

From New York Times.

Blog Post | Wellbeing

Is This the Best Time to Be Alive?

Overwhelming evidence shows that we are richer, healthier, better fed, better educated, and even more humane than ever before.

Imagine, if you will, the following scenario. It is 1723, and you are invited to dinner in a bucolic New England countryside, unspoiled by the ravages of the Industrial Revolution. There, you encounter a family of English settlers who left the Old World to start a new life in North America. The father, muscles bulging after a vigorous day of work on the farm, sits at the head of the table, reading from the Bible. His beautiful wife, dressed in rustic finery, is putting finishing touches on a pot of hearty stew. The son, a strapping lad of 17, has just returned from an invigorating horse ride, while the daughter, aged 12, is playing with her dolls. Aside from the antiquated gender roles, what’s there not to like?

As an idealized depiction of pre-industrial life, the setting is easily recognizable to anyone familiar with Romantic writing or films such as Gone with the Wind or the Lord of the Rings trilogy. As a description of reality, however, it is rubbish; balderdash; nonsense and humbug. More likely than not, the father is in agonizing and chronic pain from decades of hard labor. His wife’s lungs, destroyed by years of indoor pollution, make her cough blood. Soon, she will be dead. The daughter, the family being too poor to afford a dowry, will spend her life as a spinster, shunned by her peers. And the son, having recently visited a prostitute, is suffering from a mysterious ailment that will make him blind in five years and kill him before he is 30.

For most of human history, life was very difficult for most people. They lacked basic medicines and died relatively young. They had no painkillers, and people with ailments spent much of their lives in agonizing pain. Entire families lived in bug-infested dwellings that offered neither comfort nor privacy. They worked in the fields from sunrise to sunset, yet hunger and famines were common. Transportation was primitive, and most people never traveled beyond their native villages or nearest towns. Ignorance and illiteracy were rife. The “good old days” were, by and large, very bad for the great majority of humankind. Since then, humanity has made enormous progress—especially over the course of the last two centuries.

How much progress?

Life expectancy before the modern era, which is to say, the last 200 years or so, was between ages 25 and 30. Today, the global average is 73 years old. It is 78 in the United States and 85 in Hong Kong.

In the mid-18th century, 40 percent of children died before their 15th birthday in Sweden and 50 percent in Bavaria. That was not unusual. The average child mortality among hunter-gatherers was 49 percent. Today, global child mortality is 4 percent. It is 0.3 percent in the Nordic nations and Japan.

Most of the people who survived into adulthood lived on the equivalent of $2 per day—a permanent state of penury that lasted from the start of the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago until the 1800s. Today, the global average is $35—adjusted for inflation. Put differently, the average inhabitant of the world is 18 times better off.

With rising incomes came a massive reduction in absolute poverty, which fell from 90 percent in the early 19th century to 40 percent in 1980 to less than 10 percent today. As scholars from the Brookings Institution put it, “Poverty reduction of this magnitude is unparalleled in history.”

Along with absolute poverty came hunger. Famines were once common, and the average food consumption in France did not reach 2,000 calories per person per day until the 1820s. Today, the global average is approaching 3,000 calories, and obesity is an increasing problem—even in sub-Saharan Africa.

Almost 90 percent of people worldwide in 1820 were illiterate. Today, over 90 percent of humanity is literate. As late as 1870, the total length of schooling at all levels of education for people between the ages of 24 and 65 was 0.5 years. Today, it is nine years.

These are the basics, but don’t forget other conveniences of modern life, such as antibiotics. President Calvin Coolidge’s son died from an infected blister, which he developed while playing tennis at the White House in 1924. Four years later, Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin. Or think of air conditioning, the arrival of which increased productivity and, therefore, standards of living in the American South and ensured that New Yorkers didn’t have to sleep on outside staircases during the summer to keep cool.

So far, I have chiefly focused only on material improvements. Technological change, which drives material progress forward, is cumulative. But the unprecedented prosperity that most people enjoy today isn’t the most remarkable aspect of modern life. That must be the gradual improvement in our treatment of one another and of the natural world around us—a fact that’s even more remarkable given that human nature is largely unchanging.

Let’s start with the most obvious. Slavery can be traced back to Sumer, a Middle Eastern civilization that flourished between 4,500 BC and 1,900 BC. Over the succeeding 4,000 years, every civilization at one point or another practiced chattel slavery. Today, it is banned in every country on Earth.

In ancient Greece and many other cultures, women were the property of men. They were deliberately kept confined and ignorant. And while it is true that the status of women ranged widely throughout history, it was only in 1893 New Zealand that women obtained the right to vote. Today, the only place where women have no vote is the Papal Election at the Vatican.

A similar story can be told about gays and lesbians. It is a myth that the equality, which gays and lesbians enjoy in the West today, is merely a return to a happy ancient past. The Greeks tolerated (and highly regulated) sexual encounters among men, but lesbianism (women being the property of men) was unacceptable. The same was true about relationships between adult males. In the end, all men were expected to marry and produce children for the military.

Similarly, it is a mistake to create a dichotomy between males and the rest. Most men in history never had political power. The United States was the first country on Earth where most free men could vote in the early 1800s. Prior to that, men formed the backbone of oppressed peasantry, whose job was to feed the aristocrats and die in their wars.

Strange though it may sound, given the Russian barbarism in Ukraine and Hamas’s in Israel, data suggests that humans are more peaceful than they used to be. Five hundred years ago, great powers were at war 100 percent of the time. Every springtime, armies moved, invaded the neighbor’s territory, and fought until wintertime. War was the norm. Today, it is peace. In fact, this year marks 70 years since the last war between great powers. No comparable period of peace exists in the historical record.

Homicides are also down. At the time of Leonardo Da Vinci, some 73 out of every 100,000 Italians could expect to be murdered in their lifetimes. Today, it is less than one. Something similar has happened in Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, Scandinavia, and many other places on Earth.

Human sacrifice, cannibalism, eunuchs, harems, dueling, foot-binding, heretic and witch burning, public torture and executions, infanticide, freak shows and laughing at the insane, as Harvard University’s Steven Pinker has documented, are all gone or linger only in the worst of the planet’s backwaters.

Finally, we are also more mindful of nonhumans. Lowering cats into a fire to make them scream was a popular spectacle in 16th century Paris. Ditto bearbaiting, a blood sport in which a chained bear and one or more dogs were forced to fight. Speaking of dogs, some were used as foot warmers while others were bred to run on a wheel, called a turnspit or dog wheel, to turn the meat in the kitchen. Whaling was also common.

Overwhelming evidence from across the academic disciplines clearly shows that we are richer, live longer, are better fed, and are better educated. Most of all, evidence shows that we are more humane. My point, therefore, is a simple one: this is the best time to be alive.

The Human Progress Podcast | Ep. 25

Maria Chaplia: An Update on Ukraine

Ukrainian lawyer and economist Maria Chaplia joins Chelsea Follett to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine.