“The Middle East conflict delivered one of the biggest disruptions to global oil supplies in decades. The disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year briefly drove Brent crude prices to nearly $120 a barrel—roughly two-thirds higher than the price on the eve of the conflict. Yet the global economy has so far escaped the steep downturn that used to accompany similar oil shocks.

Consensus forecasts now put global growth at about 2.6 percent in 2026, close to what was expected in January and above the more pessimistic projections made in the spring.”

From World Bank.