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Freedom from Climate-Related Death Risk

Blog Post | Natural Disasters

Freedom from Climate-Related Death Risk

Every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to a 53 percent increase in climate-risk safety.

Our friend Bjorn Lomborg has updated his chart on climate-related deaths. Since the 1920s, the number of deaths has fallen by more than 97 percent.

As the global population quadrupled over the century, the risk per million declined from 241 in the 1920s to 1.5 in the 2020s. This is a 99.38 percent decrease. Adjusted for population size differences, for every person who dies from climate today, there were over 160 who died in the 1920s.

If the rate had remained the same over the past 100 years, there would have been an average of 1,928,000 climate-related deaths from 2020–2023 instead of 12,270. Our ability to innovate around climate risks has been astonishing as long as government policy does not counterproductively interfere.

The reciprocal of death is life. If something falls by 99.38 percent, it means the opposite has increased by over 16,029 percent. ([1÷ (1-.9938) – 1]). Thus we can say that life safety from climate-related deaths over that past century has increased by 16,029 percent.

This dramatic increase in life safety increased at the same time global population increased by 300 percent. Every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to a 53 percent increase in climate-risk safety. When human beings are free to adapt and innovate, they dramatically reduce risks and make life much safer.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 6/11/2024.

Axios | Natural Disasters

Google AI Weather Model Beats Most Reliable Forecast System

“Researchers have built an artificial intelligence-based weather forecast that makes faster and more accurate predictions than the best system available today.

GenCast, an AI weather program from Google DeepMind, performed up to 20% better than the ENS forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), widely regarded as the world leader.

In the near term, GenCast is expected to support traditional forecasts rather than replace them, but even in an assistive capacity it could provide clarity around future cold blasts, heatwaves and high winds, and help energy companies predict how much power they will generate from windfarms.

In a head-to-head comparison, the program churned out more accurate forecasts than ENS on day-to-day weather and extreme events up to 15 days in advance, and was better at predicting the paths of destructive hurricanes and other tropical cyclones, including where they would make landfall.”

From Axios.

The Debrief | Natural Disasters

Hurricane Forecasting to Get Major Machine Learning Upgrade

“As experts struggle to improve their models for hurricane prediction, the City University of Hong Kong researchers focused specifically on the prediction of the boundary layer wind field—the region of the atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface, where human activity and storm impact converge.

‘We human beings are living in this boundary layer, so understanding and accurately modeling it is essential for storm forecasting and hazard preparedness,’ Li said in a recent statement.

Modeling the boundary layer is particularly difficult because it involves interactions between air, land, ocean, and surface-level structures. Traditional forecasting methods rely on massive numerical simulations performed on supercomputers, incorporating vast observational data. Despite these efforts, predictions often fall short of the precision needed for effective disaster response.”

From The Debrief.

BBC | Energy Production

Why Scientists Are Drilling into Volcanos

“The Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT) intends to advance the understanding of how magma, or molten rock, behaves underground.

That knowledge could help scientists forecast the risk of eruptions and push geothermal energy to new frontiers, by tapping into an extremely hot and potentially limitless source of volcano power.”

From BBC.

The Atlantic | Energy Consumption

Hurricane Helene Just Made the Case for Electric Trucks

“When Hurricane Helene knocked out the power in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday, Dustin Baker, like many other people across the Southeast, turned to a backup power source. His just happened to be an electric pickup truck. Over the weekend, Baker ran extension cords from the back of his Ford F-150 Lightning, using the truck’s battery to keep his refrigerator and freezer running. It worked so well that Baker became an energy Good Samaritan. ‘I ran another extension cord to my neighbor so they could run two refrigerators they have,’ he told me.

Americans in hurricane territory have long kept diesel-powered generators as a way of life, but electric cars are a leap forward. An EV, at its most fundamental level, is just a big battery on wheels that can be used to power anything, not only the car itself. Some EVs pack enough juice to power a whole home for several days, or a few appliances for even longer. In the aftermath of Helene, as millions of Americans were left without power, many EV owners did just that. A vet clinic that had lost power used an electric F-150 to keep its medicines cold and continue seeing patients during the blackout. One Tesla Cybertruck owner used his car to power his home after his entire neighborhood lost power.”

From The Atlantic.