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Flying Abundance (And Safety) Has Increased Dramatically

Blog Post | Air Transport

Flying Abundance (And Safety) Has Increased Dramatically

Get 10.8 flights from New York to London today for the time price of one in 1970 and be 80.4 times safer.

Gale L. Pooley —

Summary: Since the Wright brothers’ pioneering flight in 1903, the aviation industry has made remarkable strides in safety, affordability, and accessibility. Comparing flight prices from 1970 to today reveals a staggering 90.8 percent decrease in the time price of flying, with transcontinental flights now affordable for the average person. Additionally, advancements in aviation technology have made flying dramatically safer today than it was in 1970, and are likely to improve flying safety in the future.

The Wright brothers launched the era of aviation on December 17, 1903, with a 12-second flight. Since then, aeronautical engineers and market innovators have made the experience safer, faster, and much more affordable.

For example, in 1970 the price for a roundtrip ticket from New York to London was $550. Blue-collar workers at the time were earning around $3.93 an hour in compensation (wages and benefits). This suggests a time price of around 140 hours.

Today, the ticket price has dropped to around $467. Blue-collar workers are now earning closer to $36.15 an hour, putting the time price at 12.9 hours. The time price has fallen by 90.8 percent: for the time required to earn the money to buy one flight in 1970, you can get 10.8 flights today.

Flying abundance has increased by 980 percent, compounding at an annual rate of 4.5 percent over the last 54 years. During this same period the global population increased by 4.3 billion (117 percent), from 3.7 billion to more than 8 billion. Every 1 percentage point increase in population corresponded to an 8.4 percentage point increase in flying abundance.

This graphic highlights how flight abundance has increased to 10.8 times the amount it was in 1970.

Now transcontinental flights are affordable for almost everyone. Free-market entrepreneurial capitalism isn’t about making more luxuries for the wealthy, it’s about making luxuries affordable for the average person.

While it is true that the 1970s flights may have had roomier cabins and better dining, flying today is dramatically safer. The Aviation Safety Network tracks airline accident data. Revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) is a standard metric used in aviation. Using this data, Javier Mediavilla plotted the ratio of fatalities per trillion RPK from 1970 to 2019 using five-year averages. The ratio decreased by 98.76 percent, from 3,218 to 40, during this 49-year range. Flying is more than 80.4 times safer today than in 1970, and safety has been improving at a compound rate of around 9.37 percent a year.

This graph highlights how the number fatalities per RPK has seen a steep decline since 1970.

Considering both the time price and safety, flying has become 868 times more abundant since 1970 (10.8 x 80.4 = 868). If there had been no innovation in flying since 1970,  New York to London airfare would be around $5,059 today. Only the rich could afford transatlantic flights in 1970.

The 3,442-mile flight takes around seven hours. The supersonic Concorde could fly it in less than three. While there are no commercial supersonic flights available today, Boom Supersonic, a private company based in Colorado, aims to bring them back to US airlines by 2029. Perhaps spending half as much time on flights will allow people to use their most valuable resource for other value-creating activities.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 3/26/2024.

Gizmodo | Air Transport

NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Jet Just Hit Another Major Milestone

“After breaking the sound barrier for the first time, NASA’s X-59 supersonic jet flew faster and at higher altitudes in preparation for its most crucial test.

The experimental aircraft reached a speed of Mach 1.4 during a test flight on Friday, June 12, flying at the same conditions NASA will use to gather data from the public on the aircraft’s noise, according to the space agency. The X-59 is designed to break the sound barrier without producing the loud, explosive sound known as a sonic boom.

NASA is preparing to fly the aircraft above selected U.S. communities to gauge public response, aiming to use X-59 to pave the way for supersonic jets to fly over land without their audible disruptions.”

From Gizmodo.

FlightGlobal | Air Transport

Autonomous Flight Technology Envisioned for Large Jets

“US start-up Merlin, which has for several years been flying conventional aircraft modified for autonomous operations, is rolling out a new autonomy system intended for various types of large commercial aircraft, starting with cargo types.

The company on 14 May revealed ‘Merlin Pilot for Commercial Cargo’, a technology Merlin says incorporates AI, will handle all phases of flight and can improve aviation safety by preventing human-related accidents. The system can also enable “augmented operations”, allowing for a single pilot to be alone in the cockpit of aircraft typically operated by two pilots.

‘Merlin Pilot works alongside pilots in real-time to extend crew capabilities and scale operations beyond the limits of the traditional model,’ the company says. ‘Integrating into existing and new cargo aircraft, Merlin Pilot is designed to provide operators a practical pathway to autonomy.’

Merlin, based in Boston, envisions its technology as compatible with multiple aircraft types, including Airbus and Boeing commercial jets and a variety of military designs.”

From FlightGlobal.

Reuters | Air Transport

Jet Fuel Market Adapts Smoothly to Shifting Supply Routes

“Global jet fuel demand is expected to average 7.77 million barrels per day this year, according to the International Energy Agency, little changed from 2025.

With Middle Eastern supply curtailed, ​buyers are seeking fuel from further afield.

One tanker, the Nord Ventura, sailed for more than a month from Louisiana to deliver about 300,000 barrels of jet fuel to Melbourne, the ​first such shipment since at least 2017, according to Kpler data.

Europe has sent a rare cargo to the Seychelles and imported barrels from New York Harbour, a region it typically supplies.

Asia has also drawn in cargoes from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Africa, while China has curbed exports to protect domestic supply.

In effect, the market is redistributing supply globally rather than relying on its most efficient routes.”

From Reuters.