fbpx

Human Progress Logo Human Progress

01 / 05
Eight Centuries of Increasing Food Abundance in England: Summary

Blog Post | Food Prices

Eight Centuries of Increasing Food Abundance in England: Summary

Basic food commodities have become far cheaper, and virtually all workers have reaped the benefits.

Harry Backhouse —

Human progress is often incremental, but many positive trends have become clearly visible over time. One of these trends is the growing abundance of food. My recent series of articles looked at the affordability of food relative to wages in England between the 13th century and the present. It covered dairy (milk, butter, and cheese), meat (pork, mutton, and beef), baking (flour, sugar, and eggs), and grains (wheat, rice and oats).

Professor Gregory Clark of the University of California, Davis, has conducted extensive research into the economic history of England. As part of his research into the condition of the working class in England, Clark has developed an extensive data set containing nominal prices of goods and nominal wages of skilled and unskilled workers in England between the 13th and 19th centuries. Note: Clark assumes a 10-hour workday before 1720.

Using the concept of time prices developed by Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley, we calculated the number of hours that someone must work to earn enough money to buy a particular food item.

In this analysis, Clark’s nominal prices of food items served as the nominator, and nominal hourly wages, which come from Clark and from the UK Office of National Statistics’ Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, served as the denominator.

Figure 1: Compound annual growth rates for skilled and unskilled workers

For unskilled laborers, the compound annual growth rate of all the items analyzed increased from 0.19 percent on average before the 1860s (going back to 1200s for some commodities) to 1.38 percent since the 1860s.

Similarly, for skilled laborers, the compound annual growth rate increased from 0.17 percent on average before the 1860s (going back to 1200s for some commodities) to 1.37 percent since the 1860s.

Over the course of this series, we showed how workers have benefited hugely from the growth in wages since the Industrial Revolution. However, this growth has accelerated since the end of World War II. When basic food commodities became cheaper, all workers saw the benefits.

Many compare their circumstances in the present to others who are relatively better off. However, compared to almost any period in history, everyone has benefited as basic commodities became far more affordable.

The Economist | Poverty Rates

India Has Undermined a Popular Myth About Development

“The most recent survey, which covers the year to July, shows that only 1% of India’s households fell below the international poverty line in 2024, according to an analysis of the data by Surjit Bhalla, a former executive director of the IMF, and Karan Bhasin of the State University of New York, Albany. Heir to the famous “dollar a day” poverty line, the international poverty line now stands at $2.15 a day at purchasing-power parity. India has, therefore, all but eliminated the most extreme forms of poverty.

This is wonderful news in its own right. But India’s success also calls into question a common assumption about development: that the eradication of poverty requires a manufacturing miracle, drawing masses of peasants out of the farms and into the factories. More than 40% of India’s workers are still employed in agriculture. Perhaps people can leave poverty without leaving the land. That is also one conclusion of a new paper by Vincent Armentano, Paul Niehaus and Tom Vogl, all of the University of California, San Diego, which examines some of the paths out of poverty taken by five big emerging economies—China, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa, as well as India—from 1984 to 2017.”

From The Economist.

Reason | Poverty Rates

Javier Milei’s Free Market Reforms Are Starting To Pay Off

“Argentina’s poverty rate fell sharply in the second half of 2024, according to official data released this week, marking a major milestone for President Javier Milei’s sweeping economic reforms.

According to the country’s official statistics agency, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), the poverty rate fell to 38.1 percent between July 2024 and December 2024—down nearly 15 percentage points from the first half of the year. Household poverty also declined by 13.9 percentage points, hitting 28.6 percent. And extreme poverty was cut by more than half, falling from 18.1 percent to 8.2 percent.

It’s a major turnaround from the beginning of Milei’s presidency. When he took office in December 2023, he inherited a poverty rate of 41.7 percent, which quickly surged to 53 percent as his administration launched a ‘shock therapy’ program to end Argentina’s economic misery.

One of the biggest drivers behind the poverty decline is the sharp drop in inflation. Annual inflation, which reached 276.2 percent a year ago—one of the highest in the world—dropped to 66.9 percent last month. Monthly inflation has also dropped, from 25.5 percent in December to just 2.4 percent in February.”

From Reason.

Our World in Data | Poverty Rates

Indonesia Reduces Extreme Poverty Rapidly

“Some people assume that China is the only reason global extreme poverty has declined. But that’s wrong: many other countries have seen dramatic reductions in poverty. Indonesia is one clear example…

In 1984, three-quarters of Indonesians lived on less than $2.15 per day. By 2023, this had fallen to less than 2%. While it didn’t quite match China’s decline, it has still been impressive. The number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen from 120 million to 5 million.”

From Our World in Data.

World Bank | Poverty Rates

Nepal Has Unparalleled Success in Eliminating Extreme Poverty

“In 1995, an estimated 55 percent of Nepalis lived in extreme poverty, defined by the US$ 2.15 per day threshold. By 2023, this figure had plummeted to just 0.37 percent. The speed and scale of Nepal’s success in eliminating extreme poverty are unparalleled among its peers. Moreover, this progress was not confined to extreme poverty. The broad-based and deep reduction is evident in the poverty headcount ratio measured at US$ 6.85 per day, which fell from 90 percent to below 50 percent over the same time.”

From World Bank.