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01 / 05
Eight Centuries of Increasing Food Abundance in England: Baking

Blog Post | Food & Hunger

Eight Centuries of Increasing Food Abundance in England: Baking

Baking products have become much more abundant for skilled and unskilled workers alike.

Summary: The historical analysis of food affordability in England reveals a fascinating trend of growing abundance of baking goods. Over the centuries, the time and effort required to acquire items like eggs, flour, and sugar have significantly decreased, making them more accessible for both skilled and unskilled workers. This article sheds light on the remarkable progress in food availability and its impact on living standards over time.


Human progress is often incremental, but many positive trends have become clearly visible over time. One of these trends is the growing abundance of food. This series of articles for HumanProgress.org will look at the affordability of food relative to wages in England between the 13th century and the present.  

Professor Gregory Clark of the University of California, Davis, has conducted extensive research into the economic history of England. As part of his research into the condition of the working class in England, Clark has developed an extensive data set containing nominal prices of goods, and nominal wages of skilled and unskilled workers in England between the 13th and 19th centuries. Note: Clark assumes a 10-hour workday before 1720.

Using the concept of time prices developed by Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley, we can calculate the number of hours of work that someone must work to earn enough money to buy a particular food item.  

In this analysis, Clark’s nominal prices of food items serve as the nominator, and nominal hourly wages, which come from Clark and from the UK’s Office of National Statistics’ Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, serve as the denominator.

Figure 1: Food abundance from the perspective of unskilled workers in England, hours of labor

As we can see in Figure 1, a dozen eggs fell from 1.72 hours of labor in the 1400s to 0.25 hours of labor in 2022. A pound of flour fell from 0.75 hours of labor to 0.02 hours, and a pound of sugar fell from 19.78 hours of labor to 0.03 hours.

Figure 2: Food abundance from the perspective of unskilled workers in England, per hour of labor

As we can see in Figure 2, an hour of work bought 7 eggs for an unskilled worker in 1410. That rose to 47.7 eggs in 2022. Instead of 0.79 pounds of flour, an unskilled worker got 50.46 pounds. Instead of 0.03 pounds of sugar, he or she got 29.94 pounds.

That means that unskilled workers earned 6.8 times as many eggs per hour in 2022 compared to the 1400s. For every pound of flour in the 1400s, an unskilled worker earned 64 pounds in 2022. Instead of 1 pound of sugar, he or she got 1001 pounds.

Figure 3: Food abundance from the perspective of skilled workers in England, hours of labor

As we can see in Figure 3, for a skilled worker, a dozen eggs fell from 1.02 hours of labor in the 1400s to 0.2 hours of labor in 2022. A pound of flour fell from 0.75 hours of labor to 0.02 hours, and a pound of sugar fell from 19.78 hours of labor to 0.03 hours.

Figure 4: Food abundance from the perspective of skilled workers in England, per hour of labor

As we can see in Figure 4, an hour of work bought 11.8 eggs for a skilled worker in the 1400s. That rose to 60.9 eggs in 2022. Instead of 1.34 pounds of flour, a skilled worker got 64.5 pounds. Instead of 0.05 pounds of sugar, he or she got 38.27 pounds.

Put differently, skilled workers earned 5.2 times as many eggs per hour in 2022 compared to the 1400s. For every pound of flour in the 1400s, a skilled worker got 48.2 pounds in 2022. Instead of 1 pound of sugar, he or she got 757 pounds. 

Clearly, baking products became much more abundant for both skilled and unskilled workers. Moreover, note that the time price differential between unskilled laborers and skilled tradesmen has shrunk. For example, to afford a dozen eggs in the 1400s, an unskilled worker would have to work 1.72 hours compared to 1.02 hours for a skilled worker, a difference of over 40 minutes. However, in 2022, an unskilled worker would work 15 minutes to afford a dozen, and a skilled worker would work 12 minutes, a difference of only 3 minutes. Put differently, unskilled workers have become better-off relative to their more-skilled compatriots.

Finally, the rate of growth in abundance has clearly accelerated over the last 200 years. Whereas the rate of growth in the abundance of eggs, flour, and sugar grew at a compounded annual rate of about 0.28% between 1410 and 1865 for an unskilled worker, it grew 1.97% between 1865 and 2022. Similarly, for a skilled worker, the compound annual growth rate increased from 0.26% before 1865 to 1.86% afterwards. In fact, between 1410 and 1865, eggs became relatively more expensive for both unskilled and skilled workers. Since the mid-1800s, the rate of growth of wages relative to prices has increased dramatically.

Cornell SC Johnson College of Business | Food Consumption

GLP-1 Adoption Is Changing Consumer Food Demand

“We examine how consumers modify their food demand after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Using survey responses on medication adoption and timing linked to transaction data from a representative U.S. household panel, we document the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption. Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by 5.5% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.6%. These reductions are driven by large decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items, including an 11% decline in savory snacks. While most food categories see spending declines, spending on nutrient-dense options, such as yogurt and fresh produce, shows directionally positive but statistically insignificant changes. We also find an 8.6% decline in spending at fast-food chains, coffee shops, and limited-service restaurants.”

From Cornell SC Johnson College of Business.

Axios | Nutrition

Fast Food Consumption Decreased, CDC Data Shows

“Kids ages 2 through 19 consumed an average of 11.4% of their daily calories from fast food on a given day between August 2021 and August 2023, according to data from the CDC’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

  • That’s down from an average of nearly 14% in 2013 and 2014, per CDC data.
  • For adults age 20 and up, average calories from fast food fell from about 14% in 2013 and 2014 to 11.7% during mid-2021 to mid-2023.
  • Food reported as “restaurant fast food/pizza” on survey responses was considered fast food for these analyses, CDC’s data brief said.

Zoom out: About 30% of youth ages 2 through 19 ate fast food on any given day between August 2021 and 2023. That figure exceeded 36% between 2015 and 2018, CDC found.”

From Axios.

Asia News Network | Malnutrition

Stunting Declines in Indonesia

“The Health Ministry has reported a decline in the national stunting rate among children, from 21.5 percent in 2023 to 19.8 percent last year…

Although the 19.8 percent prevalence is 0.3 percentage points lower than the 2024 target set by the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), it still represents an estimated 4.48 million newborns and infants affected by stunting, including around 925,000 new cases last year.”

From Asia News Network.

Our World in Data | Malnutrition

Famines Kill Far Fewer People Today than They Did in the Past

“Famines are still a major global problem. From 2020 to 2023 alone, they caused over a million deaths.

Yet the long-term trend shows significant progress. In the late 1800s and the first half of the 1900s, it was common for famines to kill over 10 million people per decade. This was true as recently as the 1960s, when China’s Great Leap Forward became the deadliest famine in history.

But as you can see in the chart, that number has dropped sharply, to about one to two million per decade.

This improvement is even more striking given that the world’s population has grown substantially.”

From Our World in Data.