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Driving in 2021 Was 225 Percent Safer than in 1970

Blog Post | Motor Vehicles

Driving in 2021 Was 225 Percent Safer than in 1970

Deaths per traffic mile have decreased by 69.3 percent while miles per gallon increased by 95.4 percent.

Gale L. Pooley —

Summary: Over the span of five decades, advancements in vehicle safety technology have contributed to substantial improvements in traffic safety. Meanwhile, significant enhancements in fuel efficiency have been achieved. If you define travel abundance as a combination of these two factors, then abundance has increased by 596 percent.

Between 1970 and 2021, the rate of traffic deaths for every 100 million miles driven decreased by 69.3 percent, from 4.88 to 1.50, according to the National Safety Council.

Vehicle miles driven increased 179.8 percent from 1.12 billion miles in 1970 to 3.13 billion in 2021. During this same period, the number of deaths decreased by 14 percent from 54,633 to 46,980.

This graph shows an increase in miles driven over time with the death rate per mile decreasing.

If traffic safety hadn’t improved since 1970, there would have been 152,842 traffic deaths in 2021 instead of 46,980. Adjusted for miles driven, for every traffic death in 2021, there were 3.25 in 1970 (4.88 ÷ 1.5 = 3.25).

The opposite of the death rate would be the life safety rate. If we index traffic safety at a value of 1 in 1970, the rate would be 3.25 in 2021. Measured from this perspective, 2021 was 225 percent safer than 1970. Vehicle safety has been increasing at a compound annual rate of 2.34 percent, doubling every 30 years.

The graphs show that, despite the increase in the number of vehicles, both the total number of vehicle deaths and the death rate relative to the population have decreased.

Cars and drivers are both getting safer by getting smarter. Cars today have three-point seat belts, air bags, stability control, backup cameras, blind spot detection, anti-lock brakes, radial belted tires, headrests, tire pressure monitoring, automatic emergency braking, lane departure warning, adaptive headlights, adaptive cruise control, and anchors for child seats.

We also get much better mileage. The full-size Ford Galaxie took the number-one spot in sales for 1970. It got 13 to 16 miles per gallon. Today’s bestseller is the Honda CRV, which gets 28 to 34 miles per gallon. Gas mileage has increased by 114 percent while safety has improved by 225 percent. If you define travel abundance as a combination of these two factors, then abundance has increased by 596 percent.

The figure shows that travel abundance and the life safety factor are much higher in 2023 than 1970.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 4/24/2024.

Nature | Pollution

China’s Shift to Electric Vehicles Reduces Air Pollution Deaths

“Vehicle emissions are an important source of urban air pollution. As the world’s largest market for new energy vehicles (NEVs), China has rapidly expanded NEV adoption to support green development. However, the environmental and health benefits of this transition remain unclear.  Here, using high-resolution satellite-retrieved data and interpretable  machine learning techniques, this study quantified the impact of NEVs  on atmospheric pollution, specifically particulate matter particles with  an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide,  carbon monoxide and particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm  or less, and evaluates the corresponding health benefits. By 2023, NEVs led to reductions of 23.80% in particles with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less  (8.97 μg m −3 ) and 30.67% in carbon monoxide (0.26 mg m −3 ), resulting in the prevention of approximately 262,000 non-accidental deaths and 75,000 all-cause deaths, respectively. Benefits were concentrated in economically developed cities, and reductions in coarse particles and nitrogen dioxide  (1.81 μg m −3 ) were low.”

From Nature.

Reuters | Motor Vehicles

Europe EV Sales Leap as Iran War Pushes up Petrol Pump Prices

“Demand for electric vehicles in Europe has surged as high fuel prices linked to the Iran war propel sales of new and second-hand EVs, data exclusively shared with ​Reuters shows, providing a much-needed boost to the auto industry…

Across Europe, data provided to Reuters by research group New Automotive and industry group E-Mobility Europe, showed registrations of new EVs rose ​34%, year-on-year, in April.

The data covers 16 markets that account for more than 80% of European Union and European Free Trade Association car sales.
It showed strong EV growth in ​Denmark and the Netherlands, where electric cars are already popular, but also in markets such as Italy, where EVs have been slow to take off.”

From Reuters.

Axios | Motor Vehicles

Waymo Nearly Doubles Houston Service Area Before World Cup

“Waymo is nearly doubling its Houston service area to 50 square miles ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Why it matters: The expansion strategically includes NRG Stadium and East Downtown, positioning Waymo to serve World Cup crowds heading to matches and fan events — all starting just a month from now.

State of play: Waymo’s current Houston service area spans roughly 25 square miles around downtown, Montrose, the Heights, Rice Military and nearby neighborhoods.

  • Riders will soon be able to access additional areas, including EaDo, the Texas Medical Center and northeast Houston.
  • Waymo tells Axios the expansion will roll out in the coming weeks.”

From Axios.

Journal of Regional Science | Motor Vehicles

Autonomous Vehicle Advances Promise Substantial Cost Savings

“Recent advances in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle technologies promise substantial cost savings for goods shipped by truck. In this study, we quantify the impacts of these transport cost reductions on the US interstate trade using a structural gravity model of domestic trade. Based on projected cost savings from the widespread adoption of self-driving technologies, we estimate significant increases in total interstate trade value. State-level impacts vary from 40.3% of GDP in Mississippi to 5.9% in Florida, while the largest impacts in dollar value are observed in Texas and New York. The sectoral analysis highlights motorized vehicles, mixed freight, and electronics as the industries experiencing the largest trade value growth. Additionally, goods with low value-to-weight ratios—where shipping costs represent a large share of the delivered value—are expected to benefit most in relative terms. These findings underscore the transformative potential of autonomous vehicle technologies in reshaping US trade patterns and sectoral dynamics.”

From Journal of Regional Science.