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Driving in 2021 Was 225 Percent Safer than in 1970

Blog Post | Motor Vehicles

Driving in 2021 Was 225 Percent Safer than in 1970

Deaths per traffic mile have decreased by 69.3 percent while miles per gallon increased by 95.4 percent.

Gale L. Pooley —

Summary: Over the span of five decades, advancements in vehicle safety technology have contributed to substantial improvements in traffic safety. Meanwhile, significant enhancements in fuel efficiency have been achieved. If you define travel abundance as a combination of these two factors, then abundance has increased by 596 percent.

Between 1970 and 2021, the rate of traffic deaths for every 100 million miles driven decreased by 69.3 percent, from 4.88 to 1.50, according to the National Safety Council.

Vehicle miles driven increased 179.8 percent from 1.12 billion miles in 1970 to 3.13 billion in 2021. During this same period, the number of deaths decreased by 14 percent from 54,633 to 46,980.

This graph shows an increase in miles driven over time with the death rate per mile decreasing.

If traffic safety hadn’t improved since 1970, there would have been 152,842 traffic deaths in 2021 instead of 46,980. Adjusted for miles driven, for every traffic death in 2021, there were 3.25 in 1970 (4.88 ÷ 1.5 = 3.25).

The opposite of the death rate would be the life safety rate. If we index traffic safety at a value of 1 in 1970, the rate would be 3.25 in 2021. Measured from this perspective, 2021 was 225 percent safer than 1970. Vehicle safety has been increasing at a compound annual rate of 2.34 percent, doubling every 30 years.

The graphs show that, despite the increase in the number of vehicles, both the total number of vehicle deaths and the death rate relative to the population have decreased.

Cars and drivers are both getting safer by getting smarter. Cars today have three-point seat belts, air bags, stability control, backup cameras, blind spot detection, anti-lock brakes, radial belted tires, headrests, tire pressure monitoring, automatic emergency braking, lane departure warning, adaptive headlights, adaptive cruise control, and anchors for child seats.

We also get much better mileage. The full-size Ford Galaxie took the number-one spot in sales for 1970. It got 13 to 16 miles per gallon. Today’s bestseller is the Honda CRV, which gets 28 to 34 miles per gallon. Gas mileage has increased by 114 percent while safety has improved by 225 percent. If you define travel abundance as a combination of these two factors, then abundance has increased by 596 percent.

The figure shows that travel abundance and the life safety factor are much higher in 2023 than 1970.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 4/24/2024.

BusinessMirror | Motor Vehicles

Autonomous Delivery Is Expanding Across China

“Chinese companies have invested heavily in so-called 'physical AI': drones, robots and autonomous transport systems for people and goods. The country’s tech giants have rolled out large fleets of autonomous vehicles across cities, focusing particularly on last mile logistics, bringing goods directly to homes and workplaces…

By the end of 2025, ground vehicles operated by tech giant Meituan had completed more than 5.5 million outdoor delivery orders and logged over 19 million autonomous kilometers. Last October, JD.com announced plans to procure 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones for its end-to-end supply chain over the next five years.

More than 100 Chinese cities have opened some of their roads to unmanned delivery vehicles. This year, Beijing and Shenzhen began issuing 'L4' test licenses for micro cargo vehicles, expanding the routes and scenarios in which these vehicles can be tested without an onboard driver…

Beijing-based Neolix has built the world’s largest autonomous fleet, operating 27,000 vehicles across 300 cities in 15 countries, nearly five times the combined size of Waymo and Baidu’s robotaxi operations. This year, the company expects its domestic fleet to grow to 50,000 vehicles. Next year, it wants to add another 100,000, according to Yu.”

From BusinessMirror.

TechCrunch | Motor Vehicles

Waymo Reaches 500,000 Paid Weekly Rides

“Waymo’s commercial robotaxi ramp-up looks expansive, both in geographic reach and in ridership. And by almost every measure, it is — until you pay attention to where the bulk of those robotaxis are actually showing up.

The numbers over the past two years reflect the kind of commercial rollout you’d expect from a deep-pocketed company like Waymo, which spun out of Google and still counts Alphabet as its majority owner. In September 2024, Waymo was operating in just three cities — Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Today, it offers robotaxi service in 15 U.S. cities, with most of those commercial launches occurring in the past year. Ridership has skyrocketed, too, with Waymo now averaging 500,000 paid robotaxi rides every week…

a closer look at its fleet shows a company concentrating its efforts in just two states. About 80% of Waymo’s roughly 4,000 robotaxis are in California and Texas, and Texas is where the action is now: Waymo’s fleet there has grown by nearly half in the past three weeks, fueled by a new Chinese-built minivan the company is betting will help it scale.”

From TechCrunch.

Japan Times | Motor Vehicles

Waymo Plans Fully Autonomous Robotaxi Service in Tokyo in 2027

“Alphabet’s Waymo plans to bring its robotaxis to Japan next year as the U.S. market leader continues its global expansion.

Waymo will partner with Japanese taxi firms Go and Nihon Kotsu to start a fully autonomous service in Tokyo in 2027, it said Tuesday. The companies expect to start with a small fleet and then expand gradually to 100 vehicles.”

From Japan Times.