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Centers of Progress, Pt. 8: Alexandria (Information)

Blog Post | Human Development

Centers of Progress, Pt. 8: Alexandria (Information)

Alexandria pioneered the concept of a universal library, seeking to compile all of the known knowledge in the world in one place.

Today marks the eighth installment in a series of articles by HumanProgress.org called Centers of Progress. Where does progress happen? The story of civilization is, in many ways, the story of the city. It is the city that has helped to create and define the modern world. This bi-weekly column will give a short overview of urban centers that were the sites of pivotal advances in culture, economics, politics, technology, etc.

Our eighth Center of Progress is Alexandria during the third and second centuries BC, when the Great Library marked the city as, arguably, the intellectual capital of the world. During the third century BC, an educational and research institution called the Musaeum (literally, “shrine of the Muses”), from which we get the word museum, was built in Alexandria. The Great Library of Alexandria was one part of the Musaeum. While estimates vary widely, the library may have held around 700,000 scrolls, the equivalent of more than 100,000 printed books. The amalgamation of so much written knowledge in one place represented a breakthrough in the way that humanity stored and distributed information.

For people today, who have grown up with unparalleled access to information thanks to the internet, it is difficult to comprehend a world where information is out of reach. But throughout much of history, knowledge often went unwritten. Even when written down, information was typically scattered in different places or otherwise inaccessible.

In the Great Library of Alexandria, much of humanity’s collective knowledge of subjects ranging from medicine to astronomy, could be accessed in a single place. Among the writings that you could browse in the library were histories, philosophical treatises, literary works of poetry and prose, and the Pinakes—believed to be the world’s first library catalog. Philosophers and scholars flocked to the city, attracted by its library’s vast compendium of information and the city’s reputation as an intellectual center.

Alexandria was founded in 331 BC, by the Macedonian leader Alexander the Great, who was in the midst of conquering the Persian Empire. Alexander drove out the Persian invaders who had deposed the last indigenous king of ancient Egypt just over a decade prior. Alexander departed from Egypt a few months after founding Alexandria, leaving his viceroy Cleomenes in charge.

After Alexander passed away in 323 BC, one of his deputies, a Macedonian general by the name of Ptolemy Lagides, took control of Egypt. Ptolemy executed Cleomenes and declared himself pharaoh. He started what came to be known as the Ptolemaic dynasty and made Alexandria his capital in 305 BC. The Ptolemy family, despite a seemingly hereditary tendency toward morbid obesity and lethargy, managed to stay in power until 30 BC.

The city’s population rapidly grew to around 300,000 people. Alexandria became a key center of Hellenistic civilization. It remained the capital of Ptolemaic Egypt, as well as Roman and Byzantine Egypt, for almost a millennium (until the Muslim conquest of Egypt overseen by the Rashidun Caliphate in 641 AD). Alexandria was also the largest city in the ancient world, until Rome eventually grew even larger.

Today, Alexandria is the second-largest city in Egypt. It is a major economic center and the most populous city on the Mediterranean Sea. It has a population of over 5 million people. Alexandria is thus also the sixth-largest city in the Arab world and the ninth-largest city in Africa. Due to its historical importance, it is a well-frequented tourist destination. It is also a major industrial center due to its pipelines of natural gas and oil from the Suez.

If you were to sail to Alexandria during the time of its famed library, you would have been struck by the towering sight of one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World. Hellenic Alexandria was home to one of the most impressive and famous sites in antiquity, the Pharos or the great lighthouse, which was constructed in the 3rd century BC. Standing at least 330 feet high (and possibly higher), the Pharos was taller than the Statue of Liberty (305 feet) and Rio’s iconic Christ the Redeemer statue (125 feet). For many centuries, the Pharos remained among the tallest man-made structures in the world. At the top of the lighthouse’s tower, a fire, which was likely kept burning with oil rather than wood, lit the way for ships that were entering Alexandria’s harbor.

Sailing nearer, you would have seen the city of Alexandria emerge on an isthmus opposite the small island on which the Pharos stood. You would have viewed the city’s classical architecture laid out among the orderly parallel lines of the city’s streets. Alexandria was designed by the architect Dinocrates of Rhodes, using a Hippodamian gridiron street plan. After docking at the harbor and setting foot in the city itself, you would have observed a wide variety of people, with the three most common ethnicities being Greeks, Jews, and Egyptian Arabs.

In other words, the city was cosmopolitan and diverse. In the city’s southwest was the Rhakotis—a settlement predating Alexandria that had been absorbed into the city. It was mainly inhabited by Arabs. Some of the city’s Arab residents may have continued to wear the Egyptian kilts, tunics and dresses that had been common before Alexander the Great’s conquest and Ptolemaic rule. However, many urban Arabs adopted the wearing of Hellenized clothing as a social marker of status. The Jewish quarter in the city’s northeast was home to one of the largest urban Jewish communities in the world at the time. During the city’s golden age, Alexandria was tolerant of religious differences. Notable Jewish Alexandrians included the historian Artapanus of Alexandria, Demetrius the Chronographer, and the playwright known as Ezekiel the Tragedian.

The Brucheum was the wealthy Greek or Royal quarter of Alexandria, and it was there that the city’s grandest architecture could be found. Most people there would have worn Greek garments such as the himation and chiton, or highly Hellenized versions of traditional Egyptian clothing. In the Brucheum you would have seen magnificent temples to the Greeks’ deities—prominently Poseidon, the god of the sea. Alexandria was, after all, a coastal city dependent on maritime trade. The Brucheum also contained a theater, and you could have seen theatergoers milling about it, discussing the latest plays. Alexandria had a thriving arts scene. The city was famous for its professional entertainers, “a combination of mime and dancer,” as well as its poets and playwrights.

Within the royal palace’s grounds in the Brucheum, you would have found the Musaeum and the Library—two beautifully decorated edifices in a campus of architecturally intricate buildings and flowering gardens. The Musaeum building included a lengthy roofed walkway and a large communal dining hall, where scholars dined and exchanged thoughts. The Musaeum also contained exhibit halls (from which we derive the modern sense of “museum”), private study rooms, lecture halls, residential quarters for scholars, and theaters for live performances. The Great Library consisted of shelves upon shelves of papyrus scrolls.

The Musaeum was most likely founded by the first Ptolemy king, Ptolemy Soter I, who is thought to have entrusted the creation of the Musaeum and the Great Library to Demetrius of Phaleron—a former Athenian politician, who had fallen from power in his home city-state, and sought refuge at Ptolemy’s court. A letter surviving from the 2nd century BC reveals that the new institution was envisioned as a universal library that would encompass all of the world’s written knowledge:

“Demetrius…had at his disposal a large budget in order to collect, if possible, all the books in the world…to the best of his ability, he carried out the king’s objective.”

The library soon compiled the whole corpus of Greek literature, including the “books of Aristotle,” along with various texts in other languages such as Egyptian. The Musaeum’s scholars produced many new works to add to the shelves.

The Musaeum was a research institution with over a thousand scholars living and working in the complex at any given time. The Museaum’s scholars were salaried employees, who were motivated, in part, by monetary incentives. On top of their salaries, for example, they received free room and board, and paid no taxes. Their expertise spanned a range of disciplines. One room in the Musaeum was dedicated to the study of anatomy; another area was dedicated to astronomy, and so on. A famous medical school was also established at the Musaeum, where Galen would study centuries later. Papyrus scrolls in the Great Library likely chronicled everything from mental disorders to intestinal diseases, from surgery and bone-setting to dentistry and even the making of false teeth.

It was thanks to the Great Library that the scholars of the Musaeum were able to achieve so much. The library marked Alexandria as the world capital of information, attracting many of the brightest minds of the day. In Alexandria, the astronomer Aristarchus (c. 310 BC-c. 230 BC) theorized that the earth revolves around the sun. He did so 1800 years before Copernicus. The physician Herophilus (325 BC-255 BC) first identified the brain as the organ that controls the movement of the body. The Egyptian priest Manetho (early 3rd century BC) chronicled Egypt’s pharaohs and organized Egyptian history into dynasties still used by historians today. The poet Callimachus (c. 305 BC-c. 240 BC) detailed the texts in the library, which were organized by subject and author, thus creating the first library catalog and becoming the father of library science.

The inventor and mathematician Archimedes (287 BC-212 BC) studied in Alexandria and may also have taught there. While taking a bath, Archimedes realized that displaced water could be used to measure the volume of an object. He is said to have shouted Eureka! (Greek for “I have found it!”), leapt from a bathtub without bothering to dress, and ran through the streets to announce his discovery. The geographer Eratosthenes (c. 276 BC-194 BC) also taught in Alexandria and made his groundbreaking calculation of the circumference of the Earth in that city. He was the founder of chronology, the first person to calculate the tilt of the Earth’s axis, and the creator of the first global map projection of the world (In cartography, a map projection is a precise method of displaying the globe’s surface as a flat plane while maintaining accuracy). The founder of the mathematical sub-discipline of geometry, Euclid (born c. 300 BC) taught at Alexandria too. Later, the engineer and mathematician Hero (also called Heron, 10 AD-70 AD), nicknamed “the greatest experimenter of antiquity,” lived and worked in Alexandria as well. It was there that he invented the aeolipile — the first known device to transform steam into rotary motion. (At the time, the steam turbine was treated as an amusing curiosity without any practical purpose).

The Great Library and the Musaeum were open to scholars from all cultures and backgrounds. A few centuries after the period that concerns us, one of the first recorded female scholars, the philosopher and mathematician Hypatia (born between 350 and 370 AD and died 415 AD) would work in Alexandria, in the spirit of the Musaeum even after that institution’s destruction. Both women and men were allowed to study the texts in the Great Library.

While other cities had built libraries before, Alexandria pioneered the idea of a universal library at a scale never before achieved. Libraries and archives were kept in many cities in various ancient civilizations, including Egypt, Mesopotamia, Syria and Greece. However, those earlier institutions were limited in scope, typically only contained local knowledge or covered a particular subject area, and were chiefly oriented toward conservation of a particular cultural tradition or heritage.

The idea of a universal library, like that of Alexandria, proved game-changing. Alexandria’s library contained works concerning practices from far away. To give an example, it included scrolls describing Buddhism, which arrived in the library as a result of diplomatic exchange between India’s Ashoka and Ptolemy II Philadelphus. Alexandria inspired other cities to create rival “universal libraries,” such as the Library of Pergamum in what is today Turkey.

The Great Library was eventually destroyed. The main library structure was likely burned in 48 BC, when the last Ptolemy ruler, Ptolemy XIII, laid a siege against his wife, sister and co-ruler Cleopatra and her lover, the Roman dictator Julius Caesar. The secondary library building, in the Serapeum temple, which was added when the first library could fit no more scrolls, may have survived until the 4th century, when the Byzantine Emperor Theodosius I ordered the demolition of all pagan temples.

For seeking to compile all of the known knowledge in the world in one place and make it accessible to scholars from all parts of the Mediterranean, Alexandria during the third and second centuries BC is deservedly our eighth Center of Progress. Alexandria pioneered the concept of a universal library. Long after the Great Library of Alexandria ceased operating, people have continued to expand the store of human knowledge, and access to it, ultimately culminating in tools like Google and Wikipedia. Today, many of us carry the keys to a library that is infinitely larger than Alexandria’s—in our pockets in the form of smartphones.

Blog Post | Economic Growth

The Human Meaning of Economic Growth

Misunderstandings of the relationship between wealth and flourishing have obscured the anti-​human implications of slowing growth rates.

Summary: Economic growth has been a driving force behind the dramatic improvements in human wellbeing over the past few centuries. This growth has resulted from the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution and capitalism. Criticisms of growth stem in large part from misunderstandings of the relationship between economics and human values.


Why is the world as prosperous a place as it is? And why isn’t it much more prosperous? These questions are broad enough to admit countless answers, but as good an answer as any is the economic growth rate.

You might have heard that economic growth is overrated, that it’s a fine idea, but unsustainable, or even that it’s entirely counterproductive because it puts profits above people and the economy above the planet. These narratives have been widespread in recent years. They’re also based on a fundamental misconception of the nature of wealth and what a growing economy means for humanity.

Properly conceived, wealth is the actualization of human values in the real world. Economic growth is the upward trajectory of human achievement. The forms of prosperity that most of humanity strives for, such as health, knowledge, pleasure, safety, professional and personal freedom, and so many others, were vastly scarcer throughout most of human history—and would be orders of magnitude more abundant today if economic policies had been slightly different. That is the power of economic growth, and it is within our power to influence the world of future generations for better or worse.

The History of Economic Growth

Virtually everywhere and always throughout human history, economic growth was nonexistent. While pockets of momentary economic progress took place in certain instances, the overall trend was one of perpetual stagnation. But just a few hundred years ago, with the advent of the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution, and capitalism, that all began to change.

When the conceptual tools of science became widely applied to create the technological advancements of the Industrial Revolution, they brought an unprecedented optimism about the capacity for investment in new discoveries and inventions to reliably uncover useful knowledge of the natural world. This change inspired the broad transformation of mere wealth (resources hidden away in vaults and treasure chests) into capital (resources invested in new inventions and discoveries).

By the time Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx wrote their Communist Manifesto in 1848, the optimism of investment had already transformed Western Europe. As Engels and Marx saw it, “The bourgeoisie [capitalist class], during its rule of scarce one hundred years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together. Subjection of Nature’s forces to man, machinery, application of chemistry to industry and agriculture, steam-​navigation, railways, electric telegraphs, clearing of whole continents for cultivation, canalisation of rivers, whole populations conjured out of the ground — what earlier century had even a presentiment that such productive forces slumbered in the lap of social labour?”

Marx and Engels misunderstand the complex reasons for increased productivity (attributing it to untapped “social labour”) but the quotation is significant because, despite their sympathy for state centralization of the economy, they could not ignore the success of capitalism.

While no year before 1700 saw a gross world product of more than $643 billion (in international inflation-​adjusted 2011 dollars), by 1820 global GDP reached 1 trillion. By 1940 the number had passed 7 trillion, and by 2015 it had passed 108 trillion.

Contrary to the popular misconception that capitalism has made the rich richer and the poor poorer, this new wealth contributed to growing the economies of every world region while outpacing population growth. While the world’s extreme poor have become wealthier so too have all other economic classes.

What’s So Great about Growth?

A growing economy isn’t about stacks of paper money getting taller, or digits being added to the spreadsheets of bank ledgers. These things may be indicators of growth, but the growth itself is composed of goods and services becoming more abundant. Farms and factories producing more and better consumption goods; engineers creating better machines and materials; clean water reaching more communities; sick people receiving better healthcare; scientists running more experiments, poets writing more poems, education becoming more broadly accessible; and for whatever other forms of value people choose to exchange their savings and labor.

Gross domestic product or GDP (called gross world product or world GDP when applied at the global level) is an imperfect but useful and widely employed measure of economic growth, and its reflection in the real world takes such forms as rising life expectancy, nutrition, literacy, safety from natural disaster, and virtually every other measure of human flourishing. This is because, at the most fundamental level, “economic growth” means the transformation and rearrangement of the physical environment into more useful forms that people value more.

Before the year 1820, human life expectancy had always been approximately 30-35 years. But with the great decline in poverty and rise of capital investment in technology and medicine, global life expectancy has roughly doubled in every geographic region in the last century. Similar trends have occurred in global nourishmentinfant survivalliteracy, access to clean water, and countless other crucial indicators of wellbeing. While these trends are bound to take the occasional momentary downturn because of life’s uncertainties and hardships, the unidirectional accumulation of technological and scientific knowledge since the Age of Enlightenment gives the forward march of progress an asymmetric advantage. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns resulted in a brief and tragic decline in life expectancy, but the number has since risen to an all-​time high of 73.36 years as of 2023.

What is the direct causal connection between economic growth and these improvements to human wellbeing? Consider the example of deaths by natural disaster, which have fallen in the last century from about 26.5 per 100,000 people to 0.51 per 100,000 people. More wealth means buildings can be constructed from stronger materials and better climate controls. And when those protections aren’t enough, a wealthier community can afford better infrastructure such as roads and vehicles to efficiently get sick or injured people to the hospital. When those injured end up in the hospital, a wealthier society’s medical facilities will be equipped with more advanced equipment, cleaner sanitation, and better-​trained doctors that will provide higher quality medical attention. These are just a few examples of how wealth allows humans to transform their world into a more hospitable place to live and face the inevitable challenges of life.

The benefits of economic growth go far beyond the maximization of health and safety for their own sake. If what you value in life is the contemplation of great art, the exaltation of your favorite deity, or time spent with your loved ones, wealth is what awards you the freedom to sustainably pursue those values rather tilling the fields for 16 hours per day and dying in your 30s. Wealth is what provides you access to an ever-​improving share of the world’s culture by increasing the abundance and accessibility of printed, recorded, and digital materials. Wealth is what provides you with the leisure time and transportation technology to travel the world and experience distant wonders, remote holy sites, and people whose personal or professional significance to you would otherwise dwell beyond your reach.

As the Harvard University cognitive scientist Steven Pinker demonstrates in his popular book Enlightenment Now, “Though it’s easy to sneer at national income as a shallow and materialistic measure, it correlates with every indicator of human flourishing, as we will repeatedly see in the chapters to come.”

The Long-​Term Future of Growth

Human psychology is ill-​equipped to comprehend large numbers, especially as they relate to the profound numerical implications of exponentiation. If it sounds insignificant when politicians and journalists refer to a 1 percent or 2 percent increase or decrease in the annual growth rate, then like most people, you’re being deceived by a quirk of human intuition. While small changes to the economic growth rate may not have noticeable effects in the short term, their long- term implications are absolutely astonishing.

Economist Tyler Cowen has pointed out in a Foreign Affairs article, “In the medium to long term, even small changes in growth rates have significant consequences for living standards. An economy that grows at one percent doubles its average income approximately every 70 years, whereas an economy that grows at three percent doubles its average income about every 23 years—which, over time, makes a big difference in people’s lives.” In his book Stubborn Attachments, Cowen offers a thought experiment to illustrate the real-​world implications of such “small changes” to the growth rate: “Redo U.S. history, but assume the country’s economy had grown one percentage point less each year between 1870 and 1990. In that scenario, the United States of 1990 would be no richer than the Mexico of 1990.”

Cowen gave the negative scenario in which the growth rate was 1 percent slower. US Citizens would have drastically shorter lifespans, less education, less healthcare, less safety from violence, more susceptibility to disease and natural disaster, fewer career choices, and so on. Now imagine the opposite scenario, in which US economic policy had just 1 additional percentage point of growth each year. The average American today would in all probability be living much longer, having much nicer housing, choosing from far more career opportunities, and enjoying more advanced technology.

Just imagine your income doubling, and what you could do for yourself, your family, or the charity of your choice with all that extra wealth. Something along those lines could have happened to most Americans. But instead, growth has been significantly slowed in the United States because taxes and regulations have constantly disincentivized and disallowed new innovations.

At the margins, many dying of preventable diseases could have been cured, many who spiraled into homelessness could have accessed the employment opportunities or mental health treatment they needed, and so on. While economic fortune seems like a luxury to those who already enjoy material comfort, there are always many at the margin for whom the health of the economy is the difference between life and death.

These are among the reasons that Harvard University economist Gregory Mankiw concludes in his commonly used college textbook Macroeconomics that, “Long-​run economic growth is the single most important determinant of the economic well-​being of a nation’s citizens. Everything else that macroeconomists study — unemployment, inflation, trade deficits, and so on — pales in comparison.”

When we think of the future our children or grandchildren will live in, depending on our choices between even slightly more or less restrictive economic policies today, we could be plausibly looking at a future of widespread and affordable space travel, life-​changing education and remote work opportunities in the metaverse, new sustainable energy innovations, a biotechnological revolution in the human capacity for medical and psychological flourishing, genome projects and conservation investments to revive extinct and protect endangered species, and countless other improvements to the human condition. Or we could be looking at a drawn-​out stagnation in poverty alleviation, technological advancement, and environmental progress. The difference may well hinge on what looks today like a tiny change in the rate of compounding growth.

At the broadest level, more wealth in the hands of the human species represents a greater capacity of humans to chart their course through life and into the future in accordance with their values. Like all profound and far-​reaching forms of change, economic growth has a wide range of consequences, some intended and others unintended, many desirable and many others undesirable. But it is not a random process. It is directed by the choices of individuals, and allocated by their drive to devote more resources and more investment into those things they view as worthwhile. Ever since the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment, and the Industrial Revolution, the investment in human values has been on balance a positive sum game, in which one group’s gains do not have to come in the form of another group’s losses. This is demonstrated by the upward trends in human flourishing since the global rise in exponential economic growth. Indeed, it is intrinsic to the fundamental difference between a growing and a shrinking or stagnant economy: In a growing economy, everyone can win.

This article was published at Libertarianism.org on 11/17/2023.

Blog Post | Science & Education

AI in the Classroom Can Make Higher Education Much More Accessible

For some school subjects, artificial intelligence can transform the landscape of tutoring accessibility.

Summary: ChatGPT4 has demonstrated superiority in various student exams, revealing its potential to support academic learning and improve educational outcomes, particularly in test preparation. With its accessibility and affordability compared to traditional tutoring services, AI tutoring can help address the increasing demand for academic support, especially as universities begin to reinstate standardized testing requirements.


In 2023, OpenAI shook the foundation of the education system by releasing ChatGPT4. The previous model of ChatGPT had already disrupted classrooms K–12 and beyond by offering a free academic tool capable of writing essays and answering exam questions. Teachers struggled with the idea that widely accessible artificial intelligence (AI) technology could meet the demands of most traditional classroom work and academic skills. GPT3.5 was far from perfect, though, and lacked creativity, nuance, and reliability. However, reports showed that GPT4 could score better than 90 percent of participants on the bar exam, LSAT, SAT reading and writing and math, and several Advanced Placement (AP) exams. This showed a significant improvement from GPT3.5, which struggled to score as well as 50 percent of participants.

This marked a major shift in the role of AI, from it being an easy way out of busy work to a tool that could improve your chances of getting into college. The US Department of Education published a report noting several areas where AI could support teacher instruction and student learning. Among the top examples was intelligent tutoring systems. Early models of these systems showed that an AI tutor could not only recognize when a student was right or wrong in a mathematical problem but also identify the steps a student took and guide them through an explanation of the process.

The role of tutoring in education has grown in significance as more and more high school students have gone to college. Private tutoring is now a booming industry. Often you can find tutors charging anywhere up to $80 for test preparation with no shortage of eager parents willing to pay for their services. Tutoring has been a go-to solution for students to improve their grades outside the classroom. But more importantly, it has been a solution to improve their chances of getting into college, with many private tutoring services focusing on AP and SAT exams. This connection between college admission success and private tutoring costs has been a problem for parents who cannot afford the costs.

ChatGPT4 is available for $20 a month. Although the program itself can be used to answer questions and provide academic support, dedicated education websites have begun incorporating AI tutors to help with test prep. Khan Academy provides free courses on AP content and SAT exams and offers an AI-powered tutor for these subjects at $4 a month. Duolingo, a popular language learning app that offers university-recognized language exams, offers Duolingo Max at $14 a month. These tutoring services are accessible at your fingertips at any time. There is no need to schedule video conferencing calls, do background checks on tutors, or pay extra costs. Quality individualized academic support is available at a moment’s notice.

The availability of AI tutoring services is occurring at a crucial moment in education. As students become accustomed to post-pandemic life, student achievement across the nation still has not returned to where it once was. Despite that, many universities have begun reversing test-optional policies that had allowed students to avoid taking standardized tests such as the SAT. The demand for tutoring has skyrocketed as many new high school seniors struggle to meet the old standards of college admissions. Many school tutoring programs have not been able to provide the support students need, and private tutoring costs are only increasing.

AI has the potential to provide cheap and effective tutoring for these exams while being easily accessible. A Harvard computer science course has been able to incorporate ChatGPT to great success, using it to provide continuous and customized technical support and allowing professors to focus more on pedagogy. As technology improves, students will have more support for academic pursuits, opening an easier path to higher education but also allowing students to more easily explore academic interests beyond rigid classroom instruction.

Blog Post | Science & Technology

AI Is a Great Equalizer That Will Change the World

A positive revolution from AI is already unfolding in the global East and South.

Summary: Concerns over potential negative impacts of AI have dominated headlines, particularly regarding its threat to employment. However, a closer examination reveals AI’s immense potential to revolutionize equal and high quality access to necessities such as education and healthcare, particularly in regions with limited access to resources. From India’s agricultural advancements to Kenya’s educational support, AI initiatives are already transforming lives and addressing societal needs.


The latest technology panic is over artificial intelligence (AI). The media is focused on the negatives of AI, making many assumptions about how AI will doom us all. One concern is that AI tools will replace workers and cause mass unemployment. This is likely overblown—although some jobs will be lost to AI, if history is any guide, new jobs will be created. Furthermore, AI’s ability to replace skilled labor is also one of its greatest potential benefits.

Think of all the regions of the world where children lack access to education, where schoolteachers are scarce and opportunities for adult learning are scant.

Think of the preventable diseases that are untreated due to a lack of information, the dearth of health care providers, and how many lives could be improved and saved by overcoming these challenges.

In many ways, AI will be a revolutionary equalizer for poorer countries where education and health care have historically faced many challenges. In fact, a positive revolution from AI is already unfolding in the global East and South.

Improving Equality through Education and Health Care

In India, agricultural technology startup Saagu Baagu is already improving lives. This initiative allows farmers to increase crop yield through AI-based solutions. A chatbot provides farmers with the information they need to farm more effectively (e.g., through mapping the maturity stages of their crops and testing soil so that AI can make recommendations on which fertilizers to use depending on the type of soil). Saagu Baagu has been successful in the trial region and is now being expanded. This AI initiative is likely to revolutionize agriculture globally.

Combining large language models with speech-recognition software is helping Indian farmers in other ways. For example, Indian global impact initiative Karya is working on helping rural Indians, who speak many different languages, to overcome language barriers. Karya is collecting data on tuberculosis, which is a mostly curable and preventable disease that kills roughly 200,000 Indians every year. By collecting voice recordings of 10 different dialects of Kannada, an AI speech model is being trained to communicate with local people. Tuberculosis carries much stigma in India, so people are often reluctant to ask for help. AI will allow Indians to reduce the spread of the disease and give them access to reliable information.

In Kenya, where students are leading in AI use, the technology is aiding the spread of information by allowing pupils to ask a chatbot questions about their homework.

Throughout the world, there are many challenges pertaining to health care, including increasing costs and staff shortages. As developed economies now have rapidly growing elderly populations and shrinking workforces, the problem is set to worsen. In Japan, AI is helping with the aging population issue, where a shortage of care workers is remedied by using robots to patrol care homes to monitor patients and alert care workers when something is wrong. These bots use AI to detect abnormalities, assist in infection countermeasures by disinfecting commonly touched places, provide conversation, and carry people from wheelchairs to beds and bathing areas, which means less physical exertion and fewer injuries for staff members.

In Brazil, researchers used AI models capable of predicting HER2 subtype breast cancer in imaging scans of 311 women and the patients’ response to treatment. In addition, AI can also help make health resource allocations more efficient and support tasks such as preparing for public health crises, such as pandemics. At the individual level, the use of this technology in wearables, such as smartwatches, can encourage patient adherence to treatments, help prevent illnesses, and collect data more frequently.

Biometric data gathered from wearable devices could also be a game-changer. This technology can detect cancers early, monitor infectious diseases and general health issues, and give patients more agency over their health where access to health care is limited or expensive.

Education and health care in the West could also benefit from AI. In the United States, text synthesis machines could help to address the lack of teachers in K–12 education and the inaccessibility of health care for low-income people.

Predicting the Future

AI is already playing a role in helping humanity tackle natural disasters (e.g., by predicting how many earthquake aftershocks will strike and their strength). These models, which have been trained on large data sets of seismic events, have been found to estimate the number of aftershocks better than conventional (non-AI) models do.

Forecasting models can also help to predict other natural disasters like severe storms, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires. Machine learning uses algorithms to reduce the time required to make forecasts and increase model accuracy, which again is superior to the non-AI models that are used for this purpose. These improvements could have a massive impact on people in poor countries, who currently lack access to reliable forecasts and tend to be employed in agriculture, which is highly dependent on the weather.

A Case for Optimism

Much of the fear regarding AI in the West concerns the rapid speed at which it is being implemented, but for many countries, this speed is a boon.

Take the mobile phone. In 2000, only 4 percent of people in developing countries had access to mobile phones. By 2015, 94 percent of the population had such access, including in sub-Saharan Africa.

The benefits were enormous, as billions gained access to online banking, educational opportunities, and more reliable communication. One study found that almost 1 in 10 Kenyan families living in extreme poverty were able to lift their incomes above the poverty line by using the banking app M-Pesa. In rural Peru, household consumption rose by 11 percent with access to phones, while extreme poverty fell 5.4 percent. Some 24 percent of people in developing countries now use the mobile internet for educational purposes, compared with only 12 percent in the richest countries. In lower-income countries, access to mobile phones and apps is life-changing.

AI, which only requires access to a mobile phone to use, is likely to spread even faster in the countries that need the technology the most.

This is what we should be talking about: not a technology panic but a technology revolution for greater equality in well-being.

Blog Post | Education & Literacy

How to Combat Gloom and Pessimism

Given the inhospitable world we have evolved in, humans have learned to prioritize the bad news.

Summary: Optimism flourishes more in rapidly growing countries, fueled by the promise of improvements in living standards, a phenomenon less evident in relatively developed nations like the US. Human nature, predisposed to focus on negative news, collides with media outlets’ profit-driven emphasis on sensationalism, perpetuating a cycle of pessimism. Understanding our negativity bias and learning probabilistic reasoning skills can help navigate the deluge of alarming headlines, while seeking out sources of positive news can provide a more balanced perspective.


Surveys show that optimism is highest in rapidly growing countries that are catching up with the developed world. High growth rates allow the citizens of those nations to experience massive year-on-year increases in standards of living – something that, in the absence of an AI-led revolution in productivity, is unlikely to occur in already developed countries. Slow and steady progress, such as the one currently underway in the United States, does not seem sufficient to inspire widespread optimism about the future.

The problem of incrementalism is compounded by the interaction between human nature and the media. Given the inhospitable world we have evolved in, humans have learned to prioritize the bad news. Consequently, the media has embraced the “if it bleeds, it leads” business model. Worse still, growing competition between television, newspapers, and websites has significantly increased negative content over time. The inclusion of an additional negative word in a headline, for example, leads to 2.3 percent more clicks, according to a recent study.

Unfortunately, most people are unaware of our innate negativity bias. It may be helpful to include the understanding of basic human psychology in high-school curricula. While we may not be able to purge the negativity bias from our brains, understanding how and why we react to a ceaseless barrage of terrifying headlines in certain ways may help us gain a proper perspective on the world around us.

Another way to get around the apocalyptic headlines and focus on the largely positive trendlines is to develop a more sophisticated understanding of statistical probabilities. While evidence suggests that humans have an innate capacity for probabilistic reasoning, the formal application of Bayesian inference – which is to say, adjustment of our beliefs or guesses about something as we learn more information – is a learned skill. Infants and untrained adults show abilities that align with Bayesian principles on a basic level, indicating an intuitive understanding of probability and uncertainty. However, the precise and formal application of Bayesian reasoning requires education, especially in complex scenarios.

Finally, humans can choose what kind of information to consume. Knowing that traditional media does not offer a realistic picture of the world, people can sign up for services – such as the Human Progress weekly newsletter – that collate the positive happenings ignored by mainstream media outlets.