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Can Finance Save the Wolves?

Blog Post | Conservation & Biodiversity

Can Finance Save the Wolves?

Economics informs us that unsolvable societal disputes don’t have to become political wrestling matches.

Most people have quite the dire view of finance and markets. Unscrupulous bankers and pompous hedge funds place unsound bets on obscure and risky investments; greedy businessmen jack prices and fire workers at the first sight of recessions caused by their own avarice. Money rules the world, goes the trope. But that also means that financial incentives have the power to align behavior more powerfully than most appeals to morals, kindness, or the good of the community.

Yale University finance professor William Goetzmann opens his book Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible with the observation that “finance is the story of a technology: a way of doing things. Like other technologies, it developed through innovations that improved efficiency. It is not intrinsically good or bad.” Markets, especially those for financial assets and property, are a way to rearrange reality’s unavoidable risks, benefits, and payoffs; they are “by, for, and about people’s lives.”

One fascinating way that modern financial engineering helps make the world a better place is through counterintuitive payments, such as in global forestry. Making money by chopping down trees is a model that everyone understands—get chainsaws and harvesters, hire some laborers, chop trees, and sell the wood for profit.

Another way is to make money by not chopping down trees, courtesy of resourceful financiers and carbon sequestration markets. In efforts to reduce their carbon emissions, major corporations routinely pay forest owners to keep more trees in the ground for longer. This “negative logging” is made possible by financial flows from those who want more trees to those who manage them.

In 2021, the World Bank paid nine districts in Mozambique’s Zambézia province for keeping forests intact. When in power, Brazil’s ex-president Jair Bolsonaro routinely tried to shake down the international community for cash payments in exchange for not deforesting the Amazon. Think what you will of this controversial political figure and his policies, but the economic mechanism his government proposed here was sound – rich Westerners want flourishing rainforests and an end to global deforestation, and poor farmers and loggers want to use economically unproductive land to better their standards of living. A deal naturally presented itself.

Well-structured financial payments can also solve another pickle that routinely devolves into political mudslinging: wildlife. City-dwellers often have a romanticized view of nature and ecologic systems, like the idea of healthy wolf populations. Ranchers and pastoralists who bear the visible costs of livestock killed usually have a different view. Cue unsolvable political showdowns.

In Sweden, where ecological concerns usually reign supreme, rural constituents and an anti-wolf lobby have recently gotten the upper hand. This summer, the government announced that it wanted to reduce the already inbred and endangered wolf population by half. The policy is based on no scientific evidence whatsoever. It is a political measure to reduce concentrated economic damages among a loud constituency.

It seems that only one group can be satisfied. The groups who favor more wolves and those favoring fewer can’t both have their way. When management over common-pool resources devolves into political disputes, policy usually pinballs between various interests as they wrestle control over the political apparatus.

Finance and Markets Can Align Mutually Incompatible Interests

Economics informs us that unsolvable societal disputes don’t have to become political wrestling matches. Instead, we need financial instruments and payoffs that have city-dwellers paying rural communities for the unavoidable death caused by having thriving predator populations.

If city-dwellers’ desire to have large or growing wolf populations in their countries is genuine, they should be willing to pay extra for cattle meat sourced from wolf territories, the livestock most at risk for wolf attacks.

Ecologic systems, like economic systems, are dynamic – changes to them don’t impact just one thing. When wolves return to areas where they were hunted to extinction during the 20th century, they unfortunately attack livestock or domestic animals. But they also keep the population of boars, deer, or elk in check, which reduce the damage to agriculture and gardens, cars, and people. Insurance companies could play a role by supporting conservation efforts for large predators—or offer reduced premiums for customers that do—since more wolves means fewer and/or more skittish deer and elk, which dramatically reduce vehicle collisions with wildlife.

Another way to achieve the same reshuffling of economic value is to have (generally wealthier) city-dwellers pay lavishly for ecotourism trips into areas where wolves are plentiful—like these projects in Spain’s Sierra de la Culebra. Some of the revenue streams should make it back to shepherds losing livestock to attacks or farmers who can credibly show the presence of wolves on their grounds (say, through wildlife cameras capturing their movements).

In Scandinavia, these conflicts become overwhelmingly political not only out of a lack of financial engineering but also because most compensation schemes are run by bureaucrats and financed by taxpayers. Vultures circle around political payouts as well as fresh carcasses.

Modeling by Anders Skonhoft at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology suggests that ex-ante payments for predator presence yield better outcomes than ex-post reimbursement of livestock damages. This is the animal husbandry equivalent to paying for not cutting down trees.

In the 1990s, the Swedish government introduced such an ex-ante scheme for the Sámi population and the reindeer they manage. Sámi herders routinely lose some 20 percent of their animals to carnivore attacks every year. By tying reimbursement to the presence of lynx and wolverine offspring rather than exact reindeer attacks, the scheme turns those most posed to disapprove of predators into their greatest defenders.

With the introduction of ecotourism in Africa and the Amazon, the same financial incentives have flipped loggers and poachers into guides, the enemies of predators becoming their greatest protectors. On a larger scale, the right financial structures—payouts, markets, and assets—can align the interest of unsolvable political enemies.

Yale Environment 360 | Forests

Ethiopia’s Forest Cover Is Rising as Deforestation Slows

“Over the last century, Ethiopia nearly eradicated its forests as trees were cleared for farming, grazing, and fuel. The loss of tree cover and tree roots allowed wind and rain to wash away fertile topsoil and contributed to declining crop yields…

Now the country is trying to reverse this trajectory…

The government reports that national forest cover rose from 17.2 percent in 2019 to 23.6 percent in 2023, while studies of restored areas have found substantial reductions in soil erosion. Between 2013 and 2023, the annual deforestation rate fell from more than 350 square miles to around 100 square miles.”

From Yale Environment 360.

Mongabay | Forests

Brazilian Amazon Deforestation Falls to Lowest Level in 13 Years

“Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has fallen to its lowest level in 13 years, according to new satellite data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), continuing a decline that began after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office in 2023.

INPE’s DETER alert system detected 2,874 square kilometers (1,110 square miles) of deforestation in the Amazon between August 1, 2025, and July 31, 2026. That was 36% below the previous 12-month period and 55.6% below the average of the preceding decade.

The total is the lowest since INPE introduced the current DETER system in 2015. Including data from its predecessor system, the last time alerts were lower was the 2012/13 deforestation year, when 2,766 sq km were recorded.”

From Mongabay.

L'Indipendente | Forests

In Italy, Forests Occupy a Third of the Territory, and Are Increasing

“Today, Italy is, in all respects, a forestry nation. The wooded areas have in fact exceeded 100 thousand square kilometers of extension and occupy over a third of the national territory. A figure that marks a significant change, for which from 2020 the forest area has exceeded the agricultural one used: a situation that had not been recorded since the Middle Ages. To photograph this transformation is the report Foreste in Comune, the first socio-economic survey on the forest heritage of the Italian municipalities promoted by PEFC Italia. The analysis shows that the forest has become a central component of the Italian landscape, with a whole series of benefits that derive from the increasingly widespread presence of forest ecosystems.”

From L’Indipendente.

Science | Forests

Earth’s Mangrove Forests Expand and Regrow over Four Decades

“Mangrove forests are coastal habitats that serve as nurseries for economically important fisheries. Natural disturbances such as cyclones and shore erosion, together with aquaculture, palm plantation, and rice paddy expansion, have led to global declines in mangrove forest cover, spurring national and international pledges to restore it. Zhang et al. created a 30-meter-resolution annual dataset from satellite imagery to assess how mangrove occurrence and canopy cover have changed from 1984 to 2023. Mangroves declined globally before 2010, but have mostly recovered since then, with both forest loss and degradation (declining canopy cover) rates slowing over time. Mangroves are mostly expanding into new habitats, but also regenerating in former habitat, suggesting hope for ecosystem recovery”

From Science.