“Tropical cyclones are among the most dangerous and costly weather phenomena, yet forecasting them remains a profound scientific challenge. Here, we introduce WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C), an AI operational weather model producing state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts for track, intensity, and size of tropical cyclones worldwide. Trained on a combination of global analysis data1 and a global database of historical tropical cyclones2,3, WN-C generates large ensembles of possible global weather and cyclone scenarios extending 15 days into the future. Evaluated on tropical cyclones from 2023–2025, the track, intensity and wind radii predictions from WN-C offer an average of a day or more of lead time advantage over leading operational models, an improvement in accuracy comparable to the progress seen over the last decade of operational development.”

From Nature.