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01 / 05
Agricultural Subsidies in Wealthy Countries Hurt African Producers

Blog Post | Food & Hunger

Agricultural Subsidies in Wealthy Countries Hurt African Producers

By artificially lowering commodity prices, subsidies prevent African producers from earning a fair price for their labor.

Summary: Africa is the poorest continent in the world, containing over a billion people living in extreme poverty. This article argues that international agricultural subsidies perpetuate this poverty by forcing African farmers to compete on an uneven playing field.


It’s estimated that in 2021, approximately 490 million of Africa’s almost 1.4 billion people lived on less than $1.90 per day. To get a sense of African poverty, note that 9 of the 10 poorest countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. Many factors cause Africa’s underdevelopment, but contrary to what some may think, the continent’s economic prospects are far from hopeless. Indeed, even in the developed world, much can be done to help improve the lives of millions of the world’s poorest people. If we in the West are to help those that we proclaim to care about, one of the first policies to go should be price-distorting agricultural subsidies.

Western (and Chinese) subsidies are bad for many African farmers. Africa relies on commodity exports, and when developed states dole out gargantuan sums of money to domestic producers, global commodity prices fall. These subsidies not only waste an enormous amount of taxpayer money, but by artificially lowering commodity prices, subsidies distort the price mechanism and prevent African producers from earning the fair market price for their labor.

The case study of cotton subsidies impacting West African producers illustrates this phenomenon well.

The four West African countries that have a significant interest in the global cotton trade are Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali. Together they are known as the Cotton-4. They are all on the United Nations’ Least Developed Countries list and collectively earn about 60 percent of their total crop revenue directly from cotton.

The Cotton-4 countries only produce about 3 percent of the world’s cotton. China and the United States combined produce over 40 percent, even though African farmers are often more efficient at producing cotton. Why do China and the United States produce so much more when their cotton farmers are comparatively inefficient? One reason is because the U.S. and Chinese governments funnel huge amounts of money toward cotton production, which distorts incentives and causes farmers to artificially increase supply.

Although the price-distorting effects of these subsidies have been known for decades, governments continue to enact policies that impoverish Africans. A 2007 Oxfam study reported that if the United States eliminated cotton subsidies, the global price of cotton would rise between 6 percent and 14 percent. This would lead to a significant increase in West Africa’s yearly revenue and could help lift thousands of Africans out of poverty. However, the United States went on to spend over $7 billion on cotton subsidies in the past decade and is projected to give domestic cotton farmers a further $700 million in aid this year.

Thankfully, the desire to reduce agricultural subsidies in the United States has become an increasingly popular and bipartisan issue. The libertarian Cato Institute, the conservative Heritage Foundation, and the liberal Brookings Institution have all called for agricultural subsidies to be reduced. Unfortunately, the largest price-distorter of all, China, shows no interest in changing its protectionist leanings.

The Chinese government has spent over $41 billion on cotton subsidies in the past decade and uses high tariffs to prevent African producers from being able to sell cotton in the lucrative Chinese market. Chinese subsidies have also been criticized due to evidence highlighting that the Chinese Communist Party uses cotton production to exert control over ethnic minorities.

More than 85 percent of Chinese cotton is produced in Xinjiang province, home to many of the nation’s Uyghur Muslims. The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a Chinese-owned paramilitary organization, produces about 33 percent of all Chinese cotton. The $41 billion of Chinese cotton subsidies have not improved the lives of poor Chinese cotton farmers. Rather, these funds may have been used to build prison complexes and textile factories that are home to and staffed by the coerced Uyghur minority.

While cotton subsidies are a fine example of how U.S. and Chinese policies are hurting Africans, the impact of unfair agricultural policies on poorer Africans reaches far beyond the cotton sector.

Another example of subsidies hurting the incomes of the world’s poor can be seen in the European Commission’s recent attempt to protect the EU’s dairy farmers by purchasing 380,000 metric tons of skimmed milk powder. This decision created an enormous stockpile of milk that resulted in global milk prices plummeting. Unsurprisingly, African dairy producers took the brunt of this economic blow.

To get a sense of just how big a problem agricultural subsidies are, in 2016 the United States, the European Union, and China spent $33 billion, $100 billion, and $212 billion, respectively, on trade-distorting agricultural subsidies. African producers are being forced to compete on an uneven playing field, and unfortunately, they are losing.

While some may acknowledge the negative impacts that subsidies have on developing countries, many more attempt to defend the policy because they incorrectly believe that these funds are allocated to struggling farmers in developed countries. The case of U.S. subsidies illustrates how this belief is false. In 2016, the median household income for U.S. farmers was $76,000, which is 29 percent higher than the median income for all U.S. households. In addition, commercial family farms, which have a high median household income of $167,000, received 69 percent of commodity payments and 78 percent of insurance indemnities. These funds are not being allocated to farmers struggling to get by.

Removing subsidies is difficult because people assume that doing so will hurt agricultural workers. However, New Zealand’s experience in reducing aid to its agricultural sector demonstrates that countries need not fear the consequences of ridding themselves of wasteful protectionism.

Before the 1980s, New Zealand’s farmers enjoyed high levels of government support. Due to a budget crisis, the government removed agricultural protections in 1984, and farmers were forced to compete with global producers. Despite predictions that such action would end family farming and cause large numbers of farmers to move off their lands, just 1 percent of farmers were forced out of the market. Instead, New Zealand’s farmers adjusted and began to explore new markets. Productivity rose, market-distorting effects brought about by government funding went away, and today, New Zealand’s farming sector is dynamic and internationally competitive. The same story could happen in the United States, Europe, or anywhere else.

Free markets improve productivity and increase prosperity. On the other hand, as seen in New Zealand, subsidies distort prices, cause land to be allocated in ways that maximize an individual farmer’s ability to acquire government money—rather than in a way that makes land more productive—and hurt both domestic consumers and overseas producers.

Too many governments that lament living conditions in the developing world implement policies that keep people impoverished. Developed countries need to align their policies with their rhetoric and start helping African producers by removing subsidies and simply allowing the market to work. In doing so, their own economies will become more efficient, and millions of people across the world will be richer.

Blog Post | Energy & Natural Resources

The Simon Abundance Index 2024

The Earth was 509.4 percent more abundant in 2023 than it was in 1980.

The Simon Abundance Index (SAI) quantifies and measures the relationship between resources and population. The SAI converts the relative abundance of 50 basic commodities and the global population into a single value. The index started in 1980 with a base value of 100. In 2023, the SAI stood at 609.4, indicating that resources have become 509.4 percent more abundant over the past 43 years. All 50 commodities were more abundant in 2023 than in 1980.

Figure 1: The Simon Abundance Index: 1980–2023 (1980 = 100)

The SAI is based on the ideas of University of Maryland economist and Cato Institute senior fellow Julian Simon, who pioneered research on and analysis of the relationship between population growth and resource abundance. If resources are finite, Simon’s opponents argued, then an increase in population should lead to higher prices and scarcity. Yet Simon discovered through exhaustive research over many years that the opposite was true. As the global population increased, virtually all resources became more abundant. How is that possible?

Simon recognized that raw materials without the knowledge of how to use them have no economic value. It is knowledge that transforms raw materials into resources, and new knowledge is potentially limitless. Simon also understood that it is only human beings who discover and create knowledge. Therefore, resources can grow infinitely and indefinitely. In fact, human beings are the ultimate resource.

Visualizing the Change

Resource abundance can be measured at both the personal level and the population level. We can use a pizza analogy to understand how that works. Personal-level abundance measures the size of an individual pizza slice. Population-level abundance measures the size of the entire pizza pie. The pizza pie can get larger in two ways: the slices can get larger, or the number of slices can increase. Both can happen at the same time.

Growth in resource abundance can be illustrated by comparing two box charts. Create the first chart, representing the population on the horizontal axis and personal resource abundance on the vertical axis. Draw a yellow square to represent the start year of 1980. Index both population and personal resource abundance to a value of one. Then draw a second chart for the end year of 2023. Use blue to distinguish this second chart. Scale it horizontally for the growth in population and vertically for the growth in personal resource abundance from 1980. Finally, overlay the yellow start-year chart on the blue end-year chart to see the difference in resource abundance between 1980 and 2023.

Figure 2: Visualization of the Relationship between Global Population Growth and Personal Resource Abundance of the 50 Basic Commodities (1980–2023)

Between 1980 and 2023, the average time price of the 50 basic commodities fell by 70.4 percent. For the time required to earn the money to buy one unit of this commodity basket in 1980, you would get 3.38 units in 2023. Consequently, the height of the vertical personal resource abundance axis in the blue box has risen to 3.38. Moreover, during this 43-year period, the world’s population grew by 3.6 billion, from 4.4 billion to over 8 billion, indicating an 80.2 percent increase. As such, the width of the blue box on the horizontal axis has expanded to 1.802. The size of the blue box, therefore, has grown to 3.38 by 1.802, or 6.094 (see the middle box in Figure 2).

As the box on the right shows, personal resource abundance grew by 238 percent; the population grew by 80.2 percent. The yellow start box has a size of 1.0, while the blue end box has a size of 6.094. That represents a 509.4 percent increase in population-level resource abundance. Population-level resource abundance grew at a compound annual rate of 4.3 percent over this 43-year period. Also note that every 1-percentage-point increase in population corresponded to a 6.35-percentage-point increase in population-level resource abundance (509.4 ÷ 80.2 = 6.35).

Individual Commodity Changes: 1980–2023

As noted, the average time price of the 50 basic commodities fell by 70.4 percent between 1980 and 2023. As such, the 50 commodities became 238.1 percent more abundant (on average). Lamb grew most abundant (675.1 percent), while the abundance of coal grew the least (30.7 percent).

Figure 3: Individual Commodities, Percentage Change in Time Price and Percentage Change in Abundance: 1980–2023

Individual Commodity Changes: 2022–2023

The SAI increased from a value of 520.1 in 2022 to 609.4 in 2023, indicating a 17.1 percent increase. Over those 12 months, 37 of the 50 commodities in the data set increased in abundance, while 13 decreased in abundance. Abundance ranged from a 220.8 percent increase for natural gas in Europe to a 38.9 percent decrease for oranges.

Figure 4: Individual Commodities, Percentage Change in Abundance: 2022–2023

Conclusion

After a sharp downturn between 2021 and 2022, which was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, government lockdowns and accompanying monetary expansion, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the SAI is making a strong recovery. As noted, since 1980 resource abundance has been increasing at a much faster rate than population. We call that relationship superabundance. We explore this topic in our book Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet.

Appendix A: Alternative Figure 1 with a Regression Line, Equation, R-Square, and Population

Appendix B: The Basic 50 Commodities Analysis: 1980–2023

Appendix C: Why Time Is Better Than Money for Measuring Resource Abundance

To better understand changes in our standard of living, we must move from thinking in quantities to thinking in prices. While the quantities of a resource are important, economists think in prices. This is because prices contain more information than quantities. Prices indicate if a product is becoming more or less abundant.

But prices can be distorted by inflation. Economists attempt to adjust for inflation by converting a current or nominal price into a real or constant price. This process can be subjective and contentious, however. To overcome such problems, we use time prices. What is most important to consider is how much time it takes to earn the money to buy a product. A time price is simply the nominal money price divided by the nominal hourly income. Money prices are expressed in dollars and cents, while time prices are expressed in hours and minutes. There are six reasons time is a better way than money to measure prices.

First, time prices contain more information than money prices do. Since innovation lowers prices and increases wages, time prices more fully capture the benefits of valuable new knowledge and the growth in human capital. To just look at prices without also looking at wages tells only half the story. Time prices make it easier to see the whole picture.

Second, time prices transcend the complications associated with converting nominal prices to real prices. Time prices avoid subjective and disputed adjustments such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the GDP Deflator or Implicit Price Deflator (IPD), the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE), and the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Time prices use the nominal price and the nominal hourly income at each point in time, so inflation adjustments are not necessary.

Third, time prices can be calculated on any product with any currency at any time and in any place. This means you can compare the time price of bread in France in 1850 to the time price of bread in New York in 2023. Analysts are also free to select from a variety of hourly income rates to use as the denominator when calculating time prices.

Fourth, time is an objective and universal constant. As the American economist George Gilder has noted, the International System of Units (SI) has established seven key metrics, of which six are bounded in one way or another by the passage of time. As the only irreversible element in the universe, with directionality imparted by thermodynamic entropy, time is the ultimate frame of reference for almost all measured values.

Fifth, time cannot be inflated or counterfeited. It is both fixed and continuous.

Sixth, we have perfect equality of time with exactly 24 hours in a day. As such, we should be comparing time inequality, not income inequality. When we measure differences in time inequality instead of income inequality, we get an even more positive view of the global standards of living.

These six reasons make using time prices superior to using money prices for measuring resource abundance. Time prices are elegant, intuitive, and simple. They are the true prices we pay for the things we buy.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) track and report nominal prices on a wide variety of basic commodities. Analysts can use any hourly wage rate series as the denominator to calculate the time price. For the SAI, we created a proxy for global hourly income by using data from the World Bank and the Conference Board to calculate nominal GDP per hour worked.

With this data, we calculated the time prices for all 50 of the basic commodities for each year and then compared the change in time prices over time. If time prices are decreasing, personal resource abundance is increasing. For example, if a resource’s time price decreases by 50 percent, then for the same amount of time you get twice as much, or 100 percent more. The abundance of that resource has doubled. Or, to use the pizza analogy, an individual slice is twice as large. If the population increases by 25 percent over the same period, there will be 25 percent more slices. The pizza pie will thus be 150 percent larger [(2.0 x 1.25) – 1].

Blog Post | Human Development

1,000 Bits of Good News You May Have Missed in 2023

A necessary balance to the torrent of negativity.

Reading the news can leave you depressed and misinformed. It’s partisan, shallow, and, above all, hopelessly negative. As Steven Pinker from Harvard University quipped, “The news is a nonrandom sample of the worst events happening on the planet on a given day.”

So, why does Human Progress feature so many news items? And why did I compile them in this giant list? Here are a few reasons:

  • Negative headlines get more clicks. Promoting positive stories provides a necessary balance to the torrent of negativity.
  • Statistics are vital to a proper understanding of the world, but many find anecdotes more compelling.
  • Many people acknowledge humanity’s progress compared to the past but remain unreasonably pessimistic about the present—not to mention the future. Positive news can help improve their state of mind.
  • We have agency to make the world better. It is appropriate to recognize and be grateful for those who do.

Below is a nonrandom sample (n = ~1000) of positive news we collected this year, separated by topic area. Please scroll, skim, and click. Or—to be even more enlightened—read this blog post and then look through our collection of long-term trends and datasets.

Agriculture

Aquaculture

Farming robots and drones

Food abundance

Genetic modification

Indoor farming

Lab-grown produce

Pollination

Other innovations

Conservation and Biodiversity

Big cats

Birds

Turtles

Whales

Other comebacks

Forests

Reefs

Rivers and lakes

Surveillance and discovery

Rewilding and conservation

De-extinction

Culture and tolerance

Gender equality

General wellbeing

LGBT

Treatment of animals

Energy and natural Resources

Fission

Fusion

Fossil fuels

Other energy

Recycling and resource efficiency

Resource abundance

Environment and pollution

Climate change

Disaster resilience

Air pollution

Water pollution

Growth and development

Education

Economic growth

Housing and urbanization

Labor and employment

Health

Cancer

Disability and assistive technology

Dementia and Alzheimer’s

Diabetes

Heart disease and stroke

Other non-communicable diseases

HIV/AIDS

Malaria

Other communicable diseases

Maternal care

Fertility and birth control

Mental health and addiction

Weight and nutrition

Longevity and mortality 

Surgery and emergency medicine

Measurement and imaging

Health systems

Other innovations

Freedom

    Technology 

    Artificial intelligence

    Communications

    Computing

    Construction and manufacturing

    Drones

    Robotics and automation

    Autonomous vehicles

    Transportation

    Other innovations

    Science

    AI in science

    Biology

    Chemistry and materials

      Physics

      Space

      Violence

      Crime

      War

      Blog Post | Cost of Material Goods

      “Home Alone” Grocery Shopping, but with Time Prices

      Things can become more expensive and more affordable at the same time.

      This article was originally published at Gale Winds on 12/9/2023.

      In the 1990 movie Home Alone, eight-year-old Kevin McCallister went grocery shopping. He bought a half gallon of milk, a half-gallon of orange juice, a TV dinner, bread, frozen mac and cheese, laundry detergent, cling wrap, toilet paper, a pack of toy soldiers, and dryer sheets. His bill came to $19.83.

      Professor Christopher Clarke at Washington State University did an analysis of the items and estimated that today’s price would be about $40.60, or 104.7 percent higher. But we know that things can become more expensive and more affordable at the same time. How is this possible?

      Because wages typically increase faster than prices. In the past 33 years, unskilled hourly wages have increased by 178.3 percent from $6.03 per hour to around $16.50. This means the time price of Kevin’s basket has fallen by 25.2 percent. For the time it took to earn the money to buy the basket in 1990, you get 1.337 baskets today. Grocery abundance has increased by 33.7 percent.

      If you had been upskilling from an unskilled labor job in 1990 to a blue-collar job today, your wages increased 505.8 percent from $6.03 to $36.50 an hour. Your time price fell by 66.2 percent, giving you almost three times more (195.6 percent) for your hour of work.

      Don’t forget to count the kids before taking off on Christmas vacation this year, and remember, life can become more abundant every day if people are free to innovate.