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01 / 05
A Reminder of How Far Transatlantic Travel Has Come

Blog Post | Adoption of Technology

A Reminder of How Far Transatlantic Travel Has Come

Columbus's 1492 voyage took over two months; today it would take 9 hours.

Trans-Atlantic travel times decreases over the centuries

August 3 will mark the 526th anniversary of Christopher Columbus’s 1492 departure from Spain to the West Indies. The occasion is a reminder of just how dramatically transoceanic travel has improved in terms of lower cost, safer conditions and quicker travel times.

First, consider the cost. Columbus had to petition King Ferdinand II and Queen Isabella of Spain for two years for the exorbitant funds needed to make his voyage. The voyage cost approximately 2 million Spanish maravedis. According to physics professor Harry Shipman at the University of Delaware, 1 maravedi would be about 50 cents today, which would mean Columbus’s voyage cost a million current U.S. dollars.

Such trips are no longer limited to those with access to a royal treasury. In fact, more people than ever are able to afford international travel, including across the Atlantic. Competition that followed deregulation of U.S. airlines in 1978 slashed the price of tickets to make flying more accessible to more people, and progress is ongoing. A record 3.7 billion people flew in 2016.

As Marian Tupy has written, “Between 1990 and 2013, the average international round-trip airfare fell from $1,248 to $1,175 (in 2013 U.S. dollars).” A trip tracing Columbus’s journey from Madrid to San Salvador Island would cost slightly more than $1,000 in 2018. And flights from Madrid to India, which is where Columbus had originally wanted to go, are even cheaper.

By the time that the pilgrims on the Mayflower made their journey from England to the New World, the cost of crossing the Atlantic had fallen to around five pounds or $1,000 current U.S. dollars. But it is difficult for those accustomed to modern transatlantic travel to comprehend the danger and length of that rocky voyage by sea.

One passenger wrote that the Mayflower “encountered many times with cross winds, and met with many fierce storms, with which the ship was shrewdly shaken, and her upper works made very leaky.”

Another passenger died on the ship – a normal occurrence during transatlantic journeys of the era, just as many of Columbus’s crew died from scurvy, a disease caused by poor nutrition, a century earlier. Sea voyages entailed cramped living quarters, a diet of hard biscuits and beer, and the existential threat of storms that could wreck the ship. For most people, the most dangerous part of the trip nowadays is the possibility of leg cramps on a long flight.

And let us not forget that transatlantic journeys have shortened from several months to a matter of hours. For his first voyage in 1492, Columbus departed from Palos de la Frontera, Spain, and landed somewhere in the Bahamas. His journey took a grueling two months and nine days. The first steamship to cross the Atlantic did so in 207 hours in 1819. Today, a flight from Madrid to Nassau in the Bahamas would take an average of 9 hours on an air-conditioned plane with fresh food at the ready, proper restrooms, and most likely televisions with the latest movies.

Some may groan about the inconveniences of transatlantic flights. But they are nothing compared to the horrors of crossing the Atlantic in years past. The very first journeys were prohibitively costly, took months and involved tremendous risk. We can thank technological progress, competition and increasing prosperity for making the trip more affordable, safer and faster.

Blog Post | Cost of Services

Costco Raises Membership Fee, but It’s Still 21 Percent Cheaper than in 1983

The hot dog combo is 70 percent cheaper.

Costco raised its Gold Star annual membership fee to $65 in 2024. It had been $60 for the past seven years. The membership fee started at $25 in 1983. Back then, blue-collar workers earned around $11.22 an hour in compensation (wages and benefits). This puts the time price at around 2 hours and 14 minutes. Blue-collar workers earn closer to $36.92 today, putting the $65 membership time price at 1 hour and 46 minutes. Memberships are actually 21 percent cheaper today compared to 1983.

Charlie Munger from Berkshire Hathaway is supposed to have said that the membership card is an important filter:

Think about who you’re keeping out [with a membership card]. Think about the cohort that won’t give you their license and their ID and get their picture taken. . . . That cohort will have 100 percent of your shoplifters and 100 percent of your thieves.

Costco introduced its hot dog and soda combination in 1985 for $1.50. The price has not changed in 39 years. Blue-collar hourly compensation was around $12.50 an hour back then. It took 7.2 minutes to earn the money to enjoy this American treat. Today, at $36.92 an hour, it only takes 2.4 minutes. You get three combos today for the time it took to earn one back in 1985.

Costco went public on December 5, 1985. After adjusting for stock splits, the initial price was around $1.67. Today, shares are selling for around $892. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 17.47 percent. If you had invested $1,000 in Costco the same year it introduced its $1.50 deal, you would have $534,131, enough to buy 356,087 hot dog and soda combos.

Long live the entrepreneurs at Costco who make our lives so abundant.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 9/6/2024.

CNN | Cost of Services

Cheap Robotaxi Rides Rattle China’s Taxi Drivers

“The fleet of 500 vehicles operating in the city belongs to Apollo Go, a unit of Chinese tech giant Baidu. They serve an area that covers roughly half of Wuhan’s population, according to a May company release.

A major selling point is the price. Base fares start as low as 4 yuan (55 cents), compared with 18 yuan ($2.48) for a taxi driven by a human, state media Global Times reported on Wednesday.

The service launched in 2022 and started to gain traction during the first half of the year. The company aims to double its fleet to 1,000 cars by the end of 2024. Wuhan currently has around 17,000 regular cabs, according to the city’s transport bureau.”

From CNN.

Blog Post | Tourism & Leisure

Cruising Has Never Been More Abundant

Over the past 50 years, the time price of a Caribbean cruise has dropped over 70 percent. Blue-collar and unskilled workers now get 3.4 cruises for the time price of one in 1972.

Summary: In the last 50 years, the time price of a Caribbean cruise vacation has dropped significantly, making it accessible to blue-collar and unskilled workers. Ted Arison’s Carnival cruise line, starting in 1972, transformed cruising from an exclusive luxury to an affordable vacation for many. Today’s cruises offer vastly improved experiences and illustrate how entrepreneurial vision can make luxuries accessible to all.


Entrepreneur Ted Arison launched his first ship, the Mardi Gras, on March 11, 1972. At the time, cruising was considered an expensive luxury for older rich people. Over the past five decades, Arison’s Carnival cruise line made this high-end experience affordable for everybody, including plumbers, schoolteachers, and college students. The Mardi Gras sailed for 20 years and created the market we enjoy today. It even gave life to a popular TV show, The Love Boat, which aired from 1976 to 1990. Carnival cruise line managed to grow from a one-ship line to the largest cruise company in the world. The first Mardi Gras cost $5 million and accommodated 1,248 passengers on 10 decks.

1972 Mardi Gras

You could book a seven-day cruise from Miami to the Caribbean for $240 to $595. Blue-collar workers at the time were earning around $4.59 an hour in wages and benefits. At $240, a cruise would cost them 52.3 hours. Unskilled workers were earning closer to $2.14 an hour, making their time price around 112.2 hours.

In 2021, Carnival launched its new Mardi Gras. This $950 million ship accommodates 6,500 passengers and approximately 2,000 crew members. It hosts “Bolt” the world’s first shipboard roller coaster, along with a water park and a sports center and is powered with liquified natural gas. The quality of the experience has vastly improved in 50 years with better food choices, entertainment, comfort, and safety. The new Mardi Gras weighs 180,000 tons, around 6.6 times more than the 27,284-ton original. This larger size dramatically reduces sea sickness.

2024 Mardi Gras

Today you can book a seven-day cruise from Carnival’s new $163 million, 188,000-square-foot terminal at Port Canaveral, Florida, to the Caribbean for $549. Blue-collar workers are now earning around $36.15 an hour in wages and benefits, putting their time price at 15.2 hours. Unskilled workers are earning closer to $16.51 an hour today, making their time price around 33.3 hours.

For these workers, the time price has dropped more than 70 percent. For the time it took them to earn the money to buy 1 cruise in 1972, they get 3.4 today. Cruise abundance has increased 240 percent. If you “upskilled” from an unskilled worker in 1972 to a blue-collar worker by 2022, your cruise abundance increased by a factor of 7.38, or 638 percent. Everybody floats first class now.

The larger the market, the more affordable things become for everyone. Adam Smith wrote about this in 1776. From 1972 to today, US population increased 131 percent from 208 million to around 340 million. Every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to a 1.83 percent to 4.87 percent increase in personal cruise abundance.

It’s visionary entrepreneurs like Ted Arison that take on enormous risks and create whole new markets and then get fabulously rich by making luxuries affordable for everyone.

This article was published at Gale Winds on June 28, 2024.

Blog Post | Air Transport

Flying Abundance (And Safety) Has Increased Dramatically

Get 10.8 flights from New York to London today for the time price of one in 1970 and be 80.4 times safer.

Summary: Since the Wright brothers’ pioneering flight in 1903, the aviation industry has made remarkable strides in safety, affordability, and accessibility. Comparing flight prices from 1970 to today reveals a staggering 90.8 percent decrease in the time price of flying, with transcontinental flights now affordable for the average person. Additionally, advancements in aviation technology have made flying dramatically safer today than it was in 1970, and are likely to improve flying safety in the future.


The Wright brothers launched the era of aviation on December 17, 1903, with a 12-second flight. Since then, aeronautical engineers and market innovators have made the experience safer, faster, and much more affordable.

For example, in 1970 the price for a roundtrip ticket from New York to London was $550. Blue-collar workers at the time were earning around $3.93 an hour in compensation (wages and benefits). This suggests a time price of around 140 hours.

Today, the ticket price has dropped to around $467. Blue-collar workers are now earning closer to $36.15 an hour, putting the time price at 12.9 hours. The time price has fallen by 90.8 percent: for the time required to earn the money to buy one flight in 1970, you can get 10.8 flights today.

Flying abundance has increased by 980 percent, compounding at an annual rate of 4.5 percent over the last 54 years. During this same period the global population increased by 4.3 billion (117 percent), from 3.7 billion to more than 8 billion. Every 1 percentage point increase in population corresponded to an 8.4 percentage point increase in flying abundance.

This graphic highlights how flight abundance has increased to 10.8 times the amount it was in 1970.

Now transcontinental flights are affordable for almost everyone. Free-market entrepreneurial capitalism isn’t about making more luxuries for the wealthy, it’s about making luxuries affordable for the average person.

While it is true that the 1970s flights may have had roomier cabins and better dining, flying today is dramatically safer. The Aviation Safety Network tracks airline accident data. Revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) is a standard metric used in aviation. Using this data, Javier Mediavilla plotted the ratio of fatalities per trillion RPK from 1970 to 2019 using five-year averages. The ratio decreased by 98.76 percent, from 3,218 to 40, during this 49-year range. Flying is more than 80.4 times safer today than in 1970, and safety has been improving at a compound rate of around 9.37 percent a year.

This graph highlights how the number fatalities per RPK has seen a steep decline since 1970.

Considering both the time price and safety, flying has become 868 times more abundant since 1970 (10.8 x 80.4 = 868). If there had been no innovation in flying since 1970,  New York to London airfare would be around $5,059 today. Only the rich could afford transatlantic flights in 1970.

The 3,442-mile flight takes around seven hours. The supersonic Concorde could fly it in less than three. While there are no commercial supersonic flights available today, Boom Supersonic, a private company based in Colorado, aims to bring them back to US airlines by 2029. Perhaps spending half as much time on flights will allow people to use their most valuable resource for other value-creating activities.

This article was published at Gale Winds on 3/26/2024.