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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that 2024 may turn out to be the warmest year in nearly two centuries. The United States Department of Agriculture predicts this year’s global harvest will be the largest in history.

How do we square these two facts? After all, climate scientists think that rising global temperatures are making crop failure more likely.

One explanation is local variability. In any given season, bad weather in one region can be offset by good weather in another. The long-term effects of climate change also vary; while some places endure more extreme weather, others will enjoy milder temperatures and longer growing seasons. Another explanation is technology and adaptation. Better irrigation, improved fertilizer and pesticides, robust crop varieties, and precision agriculture allow crop yields to remain high during adverse conditions and grow over time.

Add in global trade networks, which allow food to move from where it is abundant to where it is scarce, and humanitarian aid, which steps in during acute emergencies, and you get an incredibly resilient global food system.

How resilient?

In 2023, the data scientist Hannah Ritchie compared that year’s El Niño, the climate event responsible for recent high temperatures, to a historical analog:

From 1876 to 1878, a rare El Niño, combined with another weather oscillation – the Indian Ocean Dipole – led to severe drought across India, China, South America, and parts of Africa. Tens of millions died from famine.

Today, famines have disappeared outside of war zones. While climate change will surely pose new challenges to global food production, recent years suggest that humanity is well prepared to meet them.

Malcolm Cochran, Digital Communications Manager

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