“Using projections of anthropogenic emissions and global mean temperature responses under current policies [7], the central estimate for the projected temporally-smoothed rate of warming shows a declining trend in the coming decades (figure 1). The central estimate (see methods explained in figure captions) is projected to be 0.21 °C/decade around year 2025 and 0.15 °C/decade around year 2050. This downward trend could be greater if both nationally determined contributions and long-term net-zero climate targets are achieved. A failure to meet current commitments, a rapid reduction in sulfate aerosol emissions, larger-than-anticipated internal variability, and/or unexpected non-linear climate feedbacks could reverse this trend. Nevertheless, the central expectation is a declining rate of warming under climate policies now in place.”

From IOP Publishing.