“Current predictions of climate change impacts rely on conservative assumptions about a lack of adaptation, projecting significantly increased heatwave mortality. However, long-term studies have shown a decline in actual heatwave deaths, raising questions about the underlying mechanisms.
We combined Eurostat weekly mortality data (baseline extracted via Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess and smoothed through Principal Component Analysis dimension reduction and reconstruction) with economic indicators, Copernicus temperature data since 1950, and ENTSO-E electricity demand data. Panel regression analyzed mortality patterns during weeks with daily temperatures exceeding 22 °C for 2000–2022. During the analyzed period, Europe outpaced climate change, with the capacity to tolerate an additional 1 °C rise every 17.9 years [95% CI 15.3–22.7]…
Additionally, increasing economic output, likely driven by infrastructural improvements, especially greater affordability of air conditioning, enabled tolerating each additional 1 °C due to a per capita GDP increase of 19.7 thousand euros [95% CI 14.6–30.3]. Consistently, the increase in cooling energy demand was the strongest in eastern Europe.”