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01 / 05
Our Editor’s End of the Year Missive

Blog Post | Economic Growth

Our Editor’s End of the Year Missive

With yet another year of mixed blessings coming to an end, try to remember the good stories alongside the bad ones.

Earlier this month, I read Robin Harding’s article in the Financial Times titled, “Human progress stumbles on, pandemic or no pandemic.” It was a good reminder of Steven Pinker’s famous adage “that progress does not mean that everything gets better for everyone, everywhere, all the time. That would be a miracle, that wouldn’t be progress.” 

As Harding notes, the COVID-19 pandemic damaged the world economy less than expected. In fact, global output rose by 2.6 percent over the last two years (2020-2021). The Centre for Economics and Business Research now estimates that, for the first time, the world economy will exceed $100 trillion in 2022 – two years ahead of schedule.

While rich countries’ economies remain below their pre-pandemic levels, much of the rest of the world has marched on. Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and China, to give a few examples, are richer than they were two years ago. That, and the greater impact of COVID-19 on developed countries, means that the shrinking global income gap has declined still further.

Despite the impressive resilience of the global economy, the pandemic slowed and even reversed reductions in absolute poverty. That’s especially true of sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth continues to outpace economic growth. Therefore, instead of the projected 613 million of the world’s population living on less than $2 per day, 711 million people did so in 2021.   

Unfortunately, democracy continued its slow decline – a trend that started in 2006. According to Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2021 report, 75 percent of the world’s population saw at least some decline in democratic decision-making. Similarly, the Cato Institute’s and Fraser Institute’s 2021 Human Freedom Index found that “83 percent of the global population lives in jurisdictions that have seen a fall in human freedom since 2008.”

These findings come as the world remembers the 30th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26, 1991, and the flourishing of human freedom that followed. But how long will this memory last?

In 1967, Ronald Reagan noted that “Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction.” It is, perhaps, no coincidence that as the memories of the Cold War, communism, looming nuclear annihilation, and military dictatorships disappear, a new generation of voters tends to value freedom a little less than the previous generation did.

Historians, the American scholar Joel Mokyr noted, talk of “technological progress” and “political change.” That’s to say that when it comes to technological innovation, the sky is the limit. By building on previous market-tested knowledge, humans create and benefit from new inventions like mRNA vaccines, electric cars, and 3D printing.

And whilst technical and scientific knowledge has disappeared before – just think of the Dark Ages that followed the collapse of Rome in the West – it is difficult to imagine our vast knowledge, dispersed in countless libraries and hard drives, doing so again.

When it comes to politics, however, our horizons are limited by human nature. While freedom, as this website explains daily, may be the most beneficial way to organize a society, our propensity toward tribalism, zero-sum thinking, and bouts of mass irrationality often drives us into the hands of illiberal demagogues.

With yet another year of mixed blessings coming to an end, try to remember the good stories alongside the bad ones. And don’t worry if you forget. We will always be here to remind you of human progress.

World Bank | Poverty Rates

Global Extreme Poverty Rate Fell from 2022 to 2025

“Global poverty estimates up to 2023 were updated today on the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP), including nowcasted estimates up to 2025. The update includes three main changes to the PIP data (See the What’s New document for more details): First, the update brings new survey data for several country-years, including important updates to data from India; second, it includes the adoption of the 2021 Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs); and third, based on the new PPPs and new survey data, including new national poverty lines, the update revises the global poverty lines.

As a result of these combined changes, the global extreme poverty rate in 2022 is revised up from 9.0 to 10.5 percent, corresponding to an increase in the number of individuals living below the international poverty line from 713 to 838 million…

While revised poverty lines, underlying data revisions, and changes in PPPs affect the level of poverty, from a historical lens, the trends remain similar. The following graph shows the estimated poverty rates by regions since 1990. The graph also depicts the updated nowcasts of poverty following the methodology introduced in the September 2024 update. The nowcast suggests a modest decline in the global extreme poverty rate from 10.5 percent in 2022 to 9.9 percent in 2025. Based on the latest data, the South Asia region experienced the most significant decline in extreme poverty between 2022 and 2025. Conversely, the Middle East and North Africa was the only region to experience an increase in poverty during this period, up from 8.5 percent in 2022 to 9.4 percent in 2025.”

From World Bank.

Magnetic Media | Poverty Rates

Jamaica’s Poverty Prevalence Has Declined Dramatically

“Jamaica’s poverty prevalence for 2023 was estimated at 8.2 per cent, a decline from 16.7 per cent in 2021.

Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, disclosed that it was ‘the lowest figure ever recorded since poverty rates were first measured in 1989.'”

From Magnetic Media.

Yabiladi | Poverty Rates

Morocco’s Multidimensional Poverty Halved Since 2014

“The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has unveiled a new map of multidimensional poverty in Morocco, drawing on data from the 2014 and 2024 general censuses. This initiative aims to offer a clearer picture of the various forms of deprivation tied to deficits in education, health, housing, and access to basic infrastructure.

According to HCP, Morocco has seen a substantial decline in multidimensional poverty between 2014 and 2024. The proportion of the population experiencing poverty fell from 11.9% to 6.8%, representing a drop from around 4 million to 2.5 million people. The intensity of poverty, measured by the average deprivation rate, also saw a slight decrease, from 38.1% to 36.7%. As a result, the overall Multidimensional Poverty Index was nearly cut in half, falling from 4.5% to 2.5%.”

From Yabiladi.

World Bank | Poverty Rates

Poverty Declines Significantly in Bhutan from 2017 to 2022

“The report highlights Bhutan’s remarkable progress in poverty reduction, with the national poverty rate declining from 28 percent to 11.6 percent during this period. Key drivers include robust economic growth, improved labor market outcomes, enhanced agricultural productivity, effective COVID-19 relief programs, and strong remittance inflows.”

From World Bank.