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01 / 05
Is This the Best Time to Be Alive?

Blog Post | Wellbeing

Is This the Best Time to Be Alive?

Overwhelming evidence shows that we are richer, healthier, better fed, better educated, and even more humane than ever before.

Imagine, if you will, the following scenario. It is 1723, and you are invited to dinner in a bucolic New England countryside, unspoiled by the ravages of the Industrial Revolution. There, you encounter a family of English settlers who left the Old World to start a new life in North America. The father, muscles bulging after a vigorous day of work on the farm, sits at the head of the table, reading from the Bible. His beautiful wife, dressed in rustic finery, is putting finishing touches on a pot of hearty stew. The son, a strapping lad of 17, has just returned from an invigorating horse ride, while the daughter, aged 12, is playing with her dolls. Aside from the antiquated gender roles, what’s there not to like?

As an idealized depiction of pre-industrial life, the setting is easily recognizable to anyone familiar with Romantic writing or films such as Gone with the Wind or the Lord of the Rings trilogy. As a description of reality, however, it is rubbish; balderdash; nonsense and humbug. More likely than not, the father is in agonizing and chronic pain from decades of hard labor. His wife’s lungs, destroyed by years of indoor pollution, make her cough blood. Soon, she will be dead. The daughter, the family being too poor to afford a dowry, will spend her life as a spinster, shunned by her peers. And the son, having recently visited a prostitute, is suffering from a mysterious ailment that will make him blind in five years and kill him before he is 30.

For most of human history, life was very difficult for most people. They lacked basic medicines and died relatively young. They had no painkillers, and people with ailments spent much of their lives in agonizing pain. Entire families lived in bug-infested dwellings that offered neither comfort nor privacy. They worked in the fields from sunrise to sunset, yet hunger and famines were common. Transportation was primitive, and most people never traveled beyond their native villages or nearest towns. Ignorance and illiteracy were rife. The “good old days” were, by and large, very bad for the great majority of humankind. Since then, humanity has made enormous progress—especially over the course of the last two centuries.

How much progress?

Life expectancy before the modern era, which is to say, the last 200 years or so, was between ages 25 and 30. Today, the global average is 73 years old. It is 78 in the United States and 85 in Hong Kong.

In the mid-18th century, 40 percent of children died before their 15th birthday in Sweden and 50 percent in Bavaria. That was not unusual. The average child mortality among hunter-gatherers was 49 percent. Today, global child mortality is 4 percent. It is 0.3 percent in the Nordic nations and Japan.

Most of the people who survived into adulthood lived on the equivalent of $2 per day—a permanent state of penury that lasted from the start of the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago until the 1800s. Today, the global average is $35—adjusted for inflation. Put differently, the average inhabitant of the world is 18 times better off.

With rising incomes came a massive reduction in absolute poverty, which fell from 90 percent in the early 19th century to 40 percent in 1980 to less than 10 percent today. As scholars from the Brookings Institution put it, “Poverty reduction of this magnitude is unparalleled in history.”

Along with absolute poverty came hunger. Famines were once common, and the average food consumption in France did not reach 2,000 calories per person per day until the 1820s. Today, the global average is approaching 3,000 calories, and obesity is an increasing problem—even in sub-Saharan Africa.

Almost 90 percent of people worldwide in 1820 were illiterate. Today, over 90 percent of humanity is literate. As late as 1870, the total length of schooling at all levels of education for people between the ages of 24 and 65 was 0.5 years. Today, it is nine years.

These are the basics, but don’t forget other conveniences of modern life, such as antibiotics. President Calvin Coolidge’s son died from an infected blister, which he developed while playing tennis at the White House in 1924. Four years later, Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin. Or think of air conditioning, the arrival of which increased productivity and, therefore, standards of living in the American South and ensured that New Yorkers didn’t have to sleep on outside staircases during the summer to keep cool.

So far, I have chiefly focused only on material improvements. Technological change, which drives material progress forward, is cumulative. But the unprecedented prosperity that most people enjoy today isn’t the most remarkable aspect of modern life. That must be the gradual improvement in our treatment of one another and of the natural world around us—a fact that’s even more remarkable given that human nature is largely unchanging.

Let’s start with the most obvious. Slavery can be traced back to Sumer, a Middle Eastern civilization that flourished between 4,500 BC and 1,900 BC. Over the succeeding 4,000 years, every civilization at one point or another practiced chattel slavery. Today, it is banned in every country on Earth.

In ancient Greece and many other cultures, women were the property of men. They were deliberately kept confined and ignorant. And while it is true that the status of women ranged widely throughout history, it was only in 1893 New Zealand that women obtained the right to vote. Today, the only place where women have no vote is the Papal Election at the Vatican.

A similar story can be told about gays and lesbians. It is a myth that the equality, which gays and lesbians enjoy in the West today, is merely a return to a happy ancient past. The Greeks tolerated (and highly regulated) sexual encounters among men, but lesbianism (women being the property of men) was unacceptable. The same was true about relationships between adult males. In the end, all men were expected to marry and produce children for the military.

Similarly, it is a mistake to create a dichotomy between males and the rest. Most men in history never had political power. The United States was the first country on Earth where most free men could vote in the early 1800s. Prior to that, men formed the backbone of oppressed peasantry, whose job was to feed the aristocrats and die in their wars.

Strange though it may sound, given the Russian barbarism in Ukraine and Hamas’s in Israel, data suggests that humans are more peaceful than they used to be. Five hundred years ago, great powers were at war 100 percent of the time. Every springtime, armies moved, invaded the neighbor’s territory, and fought until wintertime. War was the norm. Today, it is peace. In fact, this year marks 70 years since the last war between great powers. No comparable period of peace exists in the historical record.

Homicides are also down. At the time of Leonardo Da Vinci, some 73 out of every 100,000 Italians could expect to be murdered in their lifetimes. Today, it is less than one. Something similar has happened in Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, Scandinavia, and many other places on Earth.

Human sacrifice, cannibalism, eunuchs, harems, dueling, foot-binding, heretic and witch burning, public torture and executions, infanticide, freak shows and laughing at the insane, as Harvard University’s Steven Pinker has documented, are all gone or linger only in the worst of the planet’s backwaters.

Finally, we are also more mindful of nonhumans. Lowering cats into a fire to make them scream was a popular spectacle in 16th century Paris. Ditto bearbaiting, a blood sport in which a chained bear and one or more dogs were forced to fight. Speaking of dogs, some were used as foot warmers while others were bred to run on a wheel, called a turnspit or dog wheel, to turn the meat in the kitchen. Whaling was also common.

Overwhelming evidence from across the academic disciplines clearly shows that we are richer, live longer, are better fed, and are better educated. Most of all, evidence shows that we are more humane. My point, therefore, is a simple one: this is the best time to be alive.

Reuters | Trade

European Council Gives Nod to Mexico Free Trade Deals

“The European Council on Monday gave the green light for the European Union to sign ​two deals governing trade, security and cooperation between ‌the European Union and Mexico…

The Interim Trade Agreement (ITA) would remove ​tariffs on goods such as EU agri-food exports and boost raw materials ‌cooperation ⁠while the Political, Economic and Cooperation Strategic Partnership Agreement (MGA) comes into effect.”

From Reuters.

Blog Post | Trade

Make Trade, Not War: How Free Exchange Creates Peace

Open markets lead to closed battlefields.

Summary: Trade does more than increase economic prosperity—it also fosters peace. By strengthening economic interdependence and aligning material incentives, trade reduces the likelihood of both interstate and civil conflict. A growing body of empirical research shows that open markets and cross-border exchange act as powerful constraints on violence, complementing or even surpassing the effects of democratic institutions.


In earlier essays, I argued that trade makes us richer, more trusting, more honest, more fair, and more tolerant. In this final essay, I will show that trade also promotes peace and mitigates the outbreak of war. Distrust, corruption, unfairness, and intolerance can often erupt into violence. By undermining these less-than-desirable attitudes and behaviors, trade can help reduce violence as well. But it may be even more straightforward than that: it’s simply not a good idea to maim or kill your customers or suppliers. War is bad for business. When you rely on others to buy your product or supply your needs, rocking the relational boat seems suboptimal. As economist Christopher Blattman wrote in his book Why We Fight,

Interdependence doesn’t eliminate the risk of war. There could still be a commitment problem, uncertainty, or unchecked leaders that push our two groups to fight. But because of entwined material interests, these forces must now overcome even more powerful incentives for compromise than usual. The gravitational pull of peace has grown stronger.

In The Better Angels of Our Nature, Harvard’s psychology professor Steven Pinker documented the worldwide decline in violence throughout history. One major contender for the driver of this more peaceful trend is known among international relations scholars as the democratic peace theory. As explained by Pinker, “Democratic government is designed to resolve conflicts among citizens by consensual rule of law, and so democracies should externalize this ethic in dealing with other states.” Trust in the procedures of democracy consequently builds trust between democratic governments. “Finally,” Pinker notes, “since democratic leaders are accountable to their people, they should be less likely to initiate stupid wars that enhance their glory at the expense of their citizenries’ blood and treasure.”

While the liberal peace theory remains influential, a growing wave of empirical research over the last three decades suggests that markets may play a bigger role than the ballot box. This shift in consensus toward what’s known as the capitalist peace theory posits that trade openness and economic interdependence are among the primary forces that mitigate war. Of course, scholars continue to debate over how much trade and economic freedom contribute to peace. But liberal peace theorists now include economic interdependence as an essential element within the broader liberal peace project. Economic interdependence is “part of the glue that cements the ‘liberal peace’ together.” As trade has grown worldwide, so has peace (see Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1. Growth in Global Trade

Source: Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Bertha Rohenkohl, Veronika Samborska, Simon Van Teutem, Diana Beltekian, and Max Roser, “Trade and Globalization,” Our World in Data (December 2025): https://ourworldindata.org/trade-and-globalization

Figure 2. The Rate of Wars Worldwide

Source: Bastian Herre, “How Different Measures Capture How Common and Deadly Conflicts Are, and When to Use Which One,” Our World in Data (July 6, 2023): https://ourworldindata.org/conflict-measures-how-do-researchers-measure-how-common-and-deadly-armed-conflicts-are. The rate is calculated by dividing the number of wars by the number of all states.

French economist Frédéric Bastiat wrote that trade barriers “create isolation, isolation gives rise to hatred, hatred to war, war to invasion.” And an abundance—and I do mean abundance—of empirical studies have shown Bastiat to be correct: trade indeed reduces interstate military conflict (see Figure 3). Other studies further solidify the adversarial relationship between trade and international violence: while trade reduces conflict, international conflict in turn reduces trade. One pair of scholars put it succinctly: “The positive relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful relationships is so well established that research now focuses on the conditions that cause variations.”

Figure 3. Trade and the Reduction of Conflict

Source: Julian Adorney, “Want Peace? Promote Free Trade,” Hinrich Foundation (September 10, 2020): https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/trade-geopolitics/trade-and-peace. Based on data from Patrick J. McDonald, “Peace through Trade or Free Trade?” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 48:4 (2004): 547-572.

Of course, these conditions and variations matter. For example, one study in the Journal of Conflict Resolution found that trade overall reduces conflict, but the pacifying effects vary by industry: trade in manufactured goods has a stronger pacifying effect than agricultural trade or trade in raw materials. Thus, trade in some industries yields more peace than others. Also, mere membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade or the World Trade Organization does not appear to reduce conflict. Countries must actually trade.

Civil war is also less likely to break out where trade is present. A 2012 study controlled for a number of variables, including income per capita, growth rates, total population, ethnic fractionalization, and oil exportation. It found that higher levels of economic globalization—including foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, import barriers, tariff rates, and the overall extent of trade—reduce the risk of civil war. A 2016 study demonstrated that secure property rights, high-quality legal institutions, sound money, and free trade lower the probability of civil war. Covering the period between 1970 and 1999, political scientists Katherine Barbieri and Rafael Reuveny found that international trade, foreign direct investment, and foreign portfolio investment reduce the risk of civil war in all states observed.

As is well known, civil wars are more likely to take place between different ethnic groups. In many cases, ethnic groups silo themselves off from one another, escalating distrust and hostility toward out-groups. Trade barriers play a role in this siloing. It turns out that barriers to trade entry can produce what economist Saumitra Jha has labeled as ethnic cronyism: a set of “ethnic trading networks” often “based upon personal and community ties.” Jha’s analysis of South Asian medieval ports demonstrated that trade and low barriers to trade entry made these areas five times less prone to religious rioting between Hindus and Muslims in the period from 1850 to 1950. During the same period, these areas were 25 percentage points less likely to experience any religious rioting. Between 1950 and 1995, these areas were still less than half as likely to experience ethnic rioting.

Violence does not mean traditional interstate or civil wars alone; it often begins with how states treat their citizens. The closing and centralization of the economy is, to borrow from economist Don Lavoie, the militarization of the economy. Militarized central planners tend to wage war on their own citizens. Crucially, trade openness acts as a check on this central power, keeping potentially violent governments at bay.

Barbara Harff, a leading expert in the study of genocide and political mass killings, examined incidences of genocide between 1955 and 1997. One factor that decreases the risk of political mass murder, she found, is economic interdependence. Political scientist Clair Apodaca has also shown trade to be “advantageous to guaranteeing human rights,” with foreign direct investment being “favorable for human rights.” Emilie M. Hafner-Burton of UC San Diego summarized the state of the scholarship well: “One of the key discoveries of the past few decades is that it is possible to promote human rights by encouraging economic openness and growth through trade and investment…Market-oriented economic development…is correlated with better protections for human rights.”

Over two centuries ago, German philosopher Immanuel Kant wrote, “The spirit of trade cannot coexist with war, and sooner or later this spirit dominates every people. For among all those powers (or means) that belong to a nation, financial power may be the most reliable in forcing nations to pursue the noble cause of peace[.]” Others echoed this sentiment. “PEACE,” Montesquieu argued, “is the natural effect of trade.” In Rights of Man, American revolutionary Thomas Paine described commerce as “a pacific system, operating to unite mankind, by rendering nations, as well as individuals, useful to each other…If commerce were permitted to act to the universal extent it is capable of, it would extirpate the system of war, and produce a revolution in the uncivilized state of governments.”

These philosophers and revolutionaries were correct. In the end, trade steers us away from war and brutality and toward peaceful cooperation. If we care about a future that is richer, freer, and more humane, then keeping markets open and people connected through trade is one of the surest paths to a more peaceful world.

Reuters | War

Congo, M23 Sign Framework for Peace in Qatar

“The Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 rebel group signed on Saturday a framework agreement for a peace deal aimed at ending fighting in eastern Congo that has killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more this year.

The agreement was signed by representatives from both sides at a ceremony in the Qatari capital Doha.

It was the latest of several documents that have been signed in recent months as part of efforts, backed by the United States and Qatar, to end the decades-long conflict in Congo that has often threatened to escalate into a full-blown regional war.

The framework was described by U.S. and Qatari officials as an important step to peace but one of many that lie ahead.”

From Reuters.

The Hindu | War

Maoists Seek Peace Talks with Chhattisgarh Government

“A purported letter of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist), offering to give up arms in view of the changed world and country’s circumstances, albeit with certain conditions, appeared in Chhattisgarh on Tuesday (September 16, 2025)…

‘In order to take forward the process of peace talks, we are making it clear that, in view of the changed world and country’s circumstances, as well as the requests made by the Prime Minister, Home Minister and senior police officers to give up arms and join the mainstream, we have decided to give up arms. We have decided to declare a temporary halt to the armed struggle. In future, we will fight with all political parties and struggling organisations on public issues,’ the letter read.

It added that the banned outfit was ‘ready to talk to the Union Home Minister or persons appointed by him or a delegation on this subject’.”

From The Hindu.