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01 / 05
Income Inequality: When Does It Matter?

Blog Post | Personal Income

Income Inequality: When Does It Matter?

It is crucial not to confuse income inequality and poverty.

Following the outbreak of the Great Recession, income inequality became a focal concern of those who feel that the market economy has let them down. In 2011, “We are the 99 percent” became a unifying slogan of the Occupy Wall Street movement. In 2013, the U.S. President Barrack Obama described income inequality as the “defining challenge of our time.” A year later, Pope Francis called for a “legitimate redistribution of economic benefits by the state,” while Marxist economist Thomas Piketty tried to supply the movement for greater income equality with intellectual ammunition in his book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century

The elevation of Donald Trump to the U.S. Presidency impeded the movement’s momentum, but concern over income inequality did not disappear. Just this week, to give another example, The New York Times ran an article titled Happy Birthday, Karl Marx. You Were Right! According to Jason Barker, an associate professor of philosophy at Kyung Hee University in South Korea and author of the novel Marx Returns, “educated liberal opinion is today more or less unanimous in its agreement that Marx’s basic thesis – that capitalism is driven by a deeply divisive class struggle in which the ruling-class minority appropriates the surplus labor of the working-class majority as profit – is correct.” 

Contrary to Professor Barker, agreement on Marx’s basic thesis is no more unanimous than the liberal spectrum of opinion is monolithic. The Harvard University psychologist Steven Pinker, for example, has examined income inequality at considerable length in his recent book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress. Pinker questioned many of the rationales for treating income inequality as the “defining challenge of our time” and concluded that “income inequality is not a fundamental component of well-being.” Those who are concerned with income inequality should be aware of Pinker’s arguments – and engage with them in a serious manner.

To start with, it is crucial not to confuse income inequality and poverty. Standards of living are increasing, albeit unequally, in most of the world. The developing countries in particular have benefited handsomely from declining barriers to trade and movement of capital. That’s why inequality between countries is actually shrinking. As for inequality within countries, enrichment at the top has not come at a cost of mass impoverishment. The market economy is not a zero-sum game, where someone’s gain must come at someone else’s expense. “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer” is a synopsis of the socialist critique of the market system, implying the perceived inevitability of what Marx called the Law of Increasing Poverty. It is also a myth unsupported by empirical evidence.

Another set of arguments proffered by those who are worried about income inequality revolves around a variety of psychological theories, which claim that a person’s happiness depends on his or her relative position vis-à-vis other members of the community. This critique of income inequality includes concerns over “social comparisons,” “reference groups,” “status anxiety” and “relative deprivation.” Again, evidence in support of the critics’ arguments is scarce. “Contrary to an earlier belief that people are so mindful of their richer compatriots that they keep resetting their internal happiness meter to the baseline no matter how well they are doing,” Pinker writes, “richer people and people in richer countries are (on average) happier than poorer people and people in poorer countries.”

Then there is the so-called “spirit level theory,” which states that most social problems, including homicides, drug abuse and suicide, are a byproduct of the resentment brought about by income inequality. Once again, the criticism does not hold much water. First, there is no reason to believe that the existence of a rich individual causes greater psychological distress to a poor individual than competition with other poor individuals. Second, original studies that ostensibly proved the veracity of the “spirit-level theory” have been superseded by new and more extensive studies, which revealed that there is actually no causation between income inequality and unhappiness. Third, increasing income inequality is actually perceived as a proof of social mobility in developing countries, thereby increasing happiness.  

Finally, Pinker addresses the wide-spread confusion of income inequality with unfairness. Contrary to what some researchers, including myself, have called “inequity aversion,” new studies found that there is no innate preference among human beings for equal distributions. Actually, unequal distributions are often preferred – as long as they are perceived as meritocratic distributions. And that brings us back to the Great Recession. Few members of the Occupy Wall Street movement, I suspect, have heard of Pinker or undertook a deep dive into the psychological literature. Their revulsion at the bank bailouts was driven, so it seems, by a deep seeded feeling of injustice: the very people, who caused the market to crash, were made whole through the use of public money. 

The members of the Occupy Wall Street movement had a point, but they were wrong to confuse government response to the outbreak of the Great Recession with the innate workings of a market economy. “Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin,” as the American economist Alan H. Meltzer once put it. “It doesn’t work.” The banks that made bad investments a decade ago should have been allowed to go under. Bailouts, in other words, prevented the market from working. The governments that implemented the bailouts thought that they were preventing the market collapse. Instead, politicians have created a real grievance that remains with us to this day. 

International Labour Organization | Income Inequality

Wage Inequality Declined in Most Countries Since Start of 21st Century

“The Global Wage Report 2024-25 finds that since the early 2000’s, on average, wage inequality, which compares the wages of high and low wage earners, decreased in many countries at an average rate that ranged from 0.5 to 1.7 per cent annually, depending on the measure used. The most significant decreases occurred among low-income countries where the average annual decrease ranged from 3.2 to 9.6 per cent in the past two decades. 

Wage inequality is declining at a slower pace in wealthier countries, shrinking annually between 0.3 and 1.3 per cent in upper-middle-income-countries, and between 0.3 to 0.7 per cent in high-income countries”

From International Labour Organization.

Blog Post | Income & Inequality

Myths About American Inequality | Podcast Highlights

Chelsea Follett interviews John Early about popular misconceptions around inequality in the United States and the measurement errors behind them.

Listen to the podcast or read the full transcript here. To see the slides that accompany the interview, watch the video on YouTube or the Spotify app.

So, let’s start with your book, The Myth of American Inequality: How Government Biases Policy Debate. Why is everything that most people think they know about income, inequality, poverty, and other measures of economic well-being in America dead wrong?

In some ways, this is perhaps a somewhat boring answer about facts, but that’s what makes it important; we have to get the facts straight. The numbers that people’s opinions are based on are not correct. There are various ways in which they aren’t, but two big ones.

The first is that when the US census measures income, it doesn’t count two-thirds of what are called transfer payments, or money that the government gives to people for not doing anything. In other words, a transfer payment is not what we pay civil servants or the military. Transfer payments are things like food stamps or Medicaid, which are also two examples of things that the census does not count. They also don’t count 88 percent of the transfer payments that go to people who are classified as poor. They don’t count Medicare for the senior population. They don’t count what is called Supplemental Security Income. They don’t count many state and local transfer payments to poor people. They count some housing subsidies, the so-called Section 8 subsidies, but they don’t count others.

When you add all the pieces up, two-thirds of the total amount of transfer payments aren’t counted. So that’s one big piece.

The other big piece is they don’t adjust for taxes. At the bottom end of the income scale, people pay about seven and a half percent of their income in taxes, mostly sales taxes and excise taxes. At the upper end of the income scale, people pay between 35 and 40 percent of their income in taxes, mostly income taxes. So, if you don’t adjust for those taxes, you end up with a very skewed view of the income distribution.

The census splits US households into five groups based on income. The bottom quintile has the least income, and the top quintile has the most. Using the official census definition of income, the ratio between the top and the bottom is 16.7 to 1, so the top quintile has 16.7 times more income than the bottom.

Now, the first thing we did was ask what income was missing. Well, the first thing we found that was missing was capital gains. Capital gains are not counted as income for reasons that aren’t clear. That, of course, is missing mostly from the top half of the income distribution. At the low end of the distribution, there’s all sorts of income misreporting. Not terribly large, but there is some, people just don’t report all their income. And in the middle, employer-paid benefits are missing. So, adding all that earned income data made the ratio between the top and bottom much bigger. The top quintile earns 60 times more income than the bottom quintile.

But we’re still missing two-thirds of the transfer payments. If we add all the transfer payments, the difference between the top and bottom drops to 5.7 to 1.

So that’s all the money coming in, but the census also ignores the money the government takes through taxes. If we compare after-tax income and after-transfer payment income, the difference drops to only 4 to 1.

So, we’ve gone from 16.7 to 1 to 4 to 1 after counting all the money. We didn’t have to redefine anything.

Let me hit a couple of other points here.

It’s not only that the difference between the top and the bottom became smaller after adding all the income data and accounting for taxes. The differences between the bottom, the next to the bottom, and the middle virtually disappear. The bottom 60 percent of Americans all have almost the same amount of income. Let me explain that a bit.

Income in the second quintile is only 8 percent larger than in the bottom quintile. And yet there are 2.8 times more people working in second quintile households. And when they work, they work 1.8 times more hours. They work nearly 40 hours, and people in the bottom quintile work less than 20. And in the middle quintile, there is 32 percent more income, but over three times more people are working, and they work more than twice as many hours. They put out a whole lot more effort and don’t get much more income.

Now, there’s another important wrinkle: adjusting households for size. Households in the bottom quintile tend to be single individuals, retired individuals, people who’ve just graduated from college, and so on. Households become larger as you go up the income scale. When you adjust for size, the bottom quintile actually receives 5 percent more income than the second quintile does. And only 7 percent less than the middle.

There’s also the issue of change over time. There’s something called the Gini coefficient. It’s a measure that’s set up so that at zero, you have perfect equality. Every household has the same income. And at 1, all the income is in one household. The census publishes this measure, and it has risen over the long term. When President Obama or Chuck Schumer says income inequality is awful and it’s getting worse, this is what they’re referring to. But they don’t count all the transfer payments, which have gone from being like 10 percent of our federal budget to 75 percent over time. If you count all the transfers and take away the taxes, the Gini coefficient has actually fallen.

There’s also the question of economic mobility. In a previous paper, you found that two-thirds of children reared in the lowest quintile at some point escape to a higher quintile as adults. I don’t think people realize just how economically mobile Americans are.

Your last point there is really important. Almost all income distribution data are a slice in time. So, the statement that “the poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer” is just wrong because these categories are not static: people who were poor ten years ago are rich today, and some previously rich folks have fallen into lower income levels. Now, there are studies that track the same people through time, and during one’s lifetime, you generally move up. Almost everyone’s income goes up, except for those who choose not to participate in the labor force. Although their income goes up too because we keep raising the transfer payments.

The same also applies to income groups. In 1967, the top quintile of households were those that made around $60,000 or more in 2017 dollars. The people in the bottom quintile made between zero and $15,000 in 2017 dollars. In 2017, 77 percent of the population was making incomes that would have placed them in the top quintile 50 years earlier. That’s inflation-adjusted. And fewer than 2 percent of the people in the bottom quintile in 2017 would have been in the bottom quintile 50 years ago. So, throughout the income distribution, we’re all a whole lot better off.

Now, are we better off than five years ago? Well, some of us are, and some of us aren’t, but the overwhelming majority of us are better off than our parents and grandparents were. Far better off.

What is another hopeful fact about the US economy right now that people may not be aware of?

If you measure it right, the share of Americans in poverty has dropped from about 14 percent back when the war on poverty began to 1.1 percent.

So, when Lyndon B. Johnson declared the war on poverty in 1964, the poverty rate had declined from over 30 percent in the 1940s and 50s to around 17 percent. Now, what happened after that? Well, poverty continued to decline at the same rate for another four or five years. Then, it stopped going down and started rising and falling with the business cycle.

Why do you suppose that happened?

Mismeasurement.

Exactly. We declared a war on poverty. We started giving people a lot of money, but we didn’t measure that money as income. And so, it bounced between 11 percent and 15 percent, back and forth, back and forth. It dropped below 11 percent last year, but it’s still in the same range. But if we count all the transfer payments, it’s only 2.5 percent. And if we correct for the CPI overstating inflation, poverty would be less than 2 percent.

So, poverty has virtually disappeared. The people in that 2 percent are people who are especially challenged, either mentally or physically, and they may need help. But most people who are called poor are simply getting lots of money from the government, and they’re not poor anymore.

Johnson had two objectives for the war on poverty. One was to alleviate the suffering of those who were poor, but the other was to enable them to become productive citizens. We completely failed at that one. Only one third of work-age adults in the bottom quintile have a job. Back when Johnson started the war on poverty, two-thirds of them did.

Why? The government’s paying them to do nothing. So, they do nothing.

Get John Early’s book, The Myth of American Inequality: How Government Biases Policy Debate, here.

The Human Progress Podcast | Ep. 55

John Early: Myths About American Inequality

John Early, a mathematical economist and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, joins Chelsea Follett to discuss popular misconceptions about inequality in the United States and the measurement errors behind them. To see the slides that accompany the interview, watch the video on YouTube or the Spotify app.