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Free Trade Is Fairer Than You Think

Blog Post | Trade

Free Trade Is Fairer Than You Think

Capitalism fosters impartiality, not unfairness.

Summary: Free trade is often accused of being unfair and corrosive to democratic institutions, concentrating power in the hands of elites while leaving ordinary people behind. The evidence suggests the opposite. Participation in markets cultivates norms of fairness, impartiality, and trust that strengthen democratic institutions and expand individual rights.


In earlier essays, I argued that trade makes us more prosperous, more trusting, and less corrupt. But isn’t trade unfair? Doesn’t the constant churn of global competition take power out of the hands of ordinary people and place it in the hands of wealthy individuals and corporations? Is democracy dying a slow death from the disease of globalization? As I show in this essay, the answer to each of these questions is an emphatic no. Trade, it turns out, strengthens democratic institutions and encourages more impartial treatment of one another. Overall, the complexity of the globalized economy has made us a much fairer bunch.

The French philosopher Montesquieu wrote, “The spirit of commerce produces in men a certain feeling for exact justice.” As Middlebury political scientist Keegan Callanan notes, Montesquieu believed that everyday trade trains us in habits of fair dealing. Over time, these small, routine acts of fairness cultivate a broader sense of exact justice that extends far beyond the marketplace. And researchers have tried to test this philosophical hunch.

Take the Ultimatum Game as an example. In this experiment, two participants are provided a specific sum of money. One participant is granted the power to divide the sum between the two. If the other player accepts the division—whether it is 50:50 or 99:1—both players keep their share. If the receiver rejects the offer, both go home empty-handed. Harvard anthropologist Joseph Henrich has found that proposers from industrial societies (e.g., United States, Indonesia, Japan, and Israel) tend to make offers between 44 and 48 percent, while the Machiguenga of the Peruvian Amazon offer only 26 percent.

Experiments by Henrich and fellow researchers involving 15 small-scale agrarian societies—consisting of hunter-gatherers, horticulturalists, nomadic herders, and sedentary farmers—have also shown that groups more heavily immersed in trade and market exchange with outsiders are less likely to make inequitable offers. Later experiments confirmed “that fairness (making more equal offers) in transactions with anonymous partners is robustly correlated with increasing market integration.”

Within the Ultimatum Game, however, there is still a risk for the proposer: the possibility of going home with nothing if the offer is too small. A proposer might therefore make a more generous offer out of self-interest simply as a strategy to avoid missing out on free money. To explore how deeply rooted this sense of fairness is, Henrich and his colleagues added the Dictator Game to their experiments. In this economic game, the receiver has no opportunity to reject the offer: they get whatever they are given. Yet even under these new rules, Henrich reported that  

people living in more market-integrated communities again made higher offers (closer to 50 percent of the stake). People with little or no market integration offered only about a quarter of the stake. Going from a fully subsistence-oriented population with no market integration…to a fully market-integrated community increases offers by 10 to 20 percentile points [see Figure 1].

Even when fairness and generosity have no strategic payoff, market integration predicts more equal treatment.

Figure 1. Dictator Game offers and market integration

As Montesquieu observed, the habits of fairness developed through everyday trade can extend well beyond the marketplace. Over time, they spill into our civic and political institutions. Democratic governments, in particular, seek to concretize fairness through their procedures and protections. This may help explain why the 2025 Index of Economic Freedom report finds a positive relationship between economic freedom and democratic governance (see Figure 2). Economic freedom, it argues, is “an important stepping stone on the road to democracy.”

Figure 2. Economic freedom and democratic governance

Research has consistently shown trade and market exchange to be champions of democracy. Economists Marco Tabellini and Giacomo Magistretti found that economic integration with democratic countries significantly boosts a country’s democracy scores (see Figure 3). Trade not only transmits goods and services across borders, but also democratic values and institutions. Studies by University of Maribor sociologist Tibor Rutar have also found a positive relationship between trade openness and democracy. Economic freedom has been shown to improve the durability of democratic institutions, while democratic backsliding is often preceded by restrictions on the economy. Political and civil liberties struggle to survive under a heavy-handed state, yet flourish with the expansion of economic freedom (see Figure 4). All in all, democracy and global capitalism appear to be two peas in a pod. As AEI’s Michael Strain explains:

It is no surprise that the rise of populism and economic nationalism has coincided with growing skepticism toward liberal democracy and growing comfort with political violence. The erosion of economic liberalism – free people, free markets, limited government, openness, global commerce – reflects a loss of respect for the choices people make in the marketplace. If we devalue choices made in markets, why wouldn’t we devalue choices made at the ballot box?

Figure 3. Trade with democracies and democratization

Source: Marco Tabellini and Giacomo Magistretti, “Economic Integration and the Transmission of Democracy,” Harvard Business School Working Paper 19-003, March 2024, p. 42.
Note: The y-axis (Polity 2) shows democracy levels. The x-axis (Log) measures trade with democratic countries (relative to GDP).

Figure 4. Economic freedom and personal freedom

Source: Robert Lawson, Ryan Murphy, and Matthew D. Mitchell, “Economic Freedom of the World in 2023,” in Economic Freedom of the World: 2025 Annual Report, eds. James Gwartney, Robert Lawson, and Ryan Murphy (Fraser Institute, 2025), p. 25.

Consider a specific case of unfairness: gender inequality. Generally, fairness is about impartial treatment between various groups. Gender inequality, however, is about impartiality within a group. In Sex and World Peace, Texas A&M’s Valerie Hudson and her colleagues argue that women are often treated as “the boundaries of their nations” because “women physically and culturally reproduce their group.” Far from being outsiders that are merely tolerated, women are seen as the creators and perpetuators of the group itself. “Indeed,” Hudson and her coauthors explain, “this is one of the reasons why the symbol of a nation is often personified as a woman, in order to elicit these deep feelings of protection. A woman becomes a ‘protectee’ of the men of the group, especially those in her own family.”

Unfortunately, the desire to protect women often translates into controlling them. In order to preserve the supposed cultural integrity of the in-group, women’s freedom is restricted. Their behavior becomes closely bound to the honor of their family and community—especially the men of both.

Greater exposure to the global economy, however, weakens this unfair patriarchal hold. For example, political scientists David Richards and Ronald Gelleny explored the effects of economic globalization—measured by foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, trade openness, and IMF and World Bank structural adjustment policies—on what they termed “women’s status” or women’s ability to fully exercise specific rights found in the corpus of international human rights law. Overall, they found that “sixty-seven percent of the statistically significant coefficients indicated an association with improved women’s status.” Similar measures—along with additional indicators such as the number of McDonald’s restaurants and IKEA stores per capita—are associated with improvements in women’s decision-making power within households, freedom in movement and dress, safety from physical violence, ownership rights, and declines in son preference and the number of “missing women.”

Supporting these findings, political scientists Eric Neumayer and Indra de Soysa have shown that increased trade openness reduces forced labor among women and increases their economic rights, including equal pay for equal work, equality in hiring and promotion practices, and the right to gainful employment without the permission of a husband or male relative. Other studies reach similar conclusions. Analyzing global data from 1981 to 2007, Neumayer and de Soysa also found that increased trade openness improves both economic and social rights, including the right to initiate divorce, the right to an education, and freedom from forced sterilization and female genital mutilation.

A study published in the journal International Organization examined four measures of women’s equality: (1) life expectancy at birth, (2) female illiteracy rates among those over age 15, (3) women’s share of the workforce, and (4) women’s share of seats in parliament. The study found that international trade and investment led to improvements in women’s health, literacy, and economic and political participation. The evidence makes clear that economic freedom matters for the well-being of women everywhere (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. Economic freedom and gender equality

Source: Rosemarie Fike, Moving Closer to Gender Equality?, Women and Progress Report, Fraser Institute, 2023, p. 11.
Note: Countries are divided into four quartiles based on their Economic Freedom of the World Index (EFW) scores, from most to least economically free. The EFW measures the size of government, rule of law and property rights, currency stability, trade openness, and regulation. The bars show the average Gender Disparity Index (GDI) score for each quartile. The GDI measures women’s freedom of movement, property rights, freedom to work, and legal status. A higher GDI score indicates greater gender equality.

Unfairness is one of the most common criticisms leveled against commercial society, often accompanied by claims that it undermines democracy and fosters partiality. The evidence presented here suggests the opposite. Engaging in trade and market exchange teaches us to treat others more generously and impartially. The natural outcome of these values is the institutional protection of certain rights. Fair treatment for all becomes the name of the game. We begin to trust one another’s choices and to believe in our shared ability to build society together.

Blog Post | Tourism & Leisure

The World Cup Is Putting American Abundance on Display

Four policy lessons we can take from our visitors’ viral moments.

Summary: The 2026 World Cup has highlighted the remarkable abundance of everyday life in the United States, as international visitors have enthusiastically embraced experiences that many Americans take for granted. This viral phenomenon reflects the country’s high standard of living while illustrating how economic dynamism, open markets, and private enterprise contribute to widespread prosperity and hospitality. The influx of foreign visitors also demonstrates tourism’s value as both a major economic export and a source of American soft power, strengthening international goodwill through personal experiences rather than government efforts.


As briefly mentioned in my last column for The Dispatch, World Cup tourists’ repeated astonishment with everyday American abundance has become a viral sensation—and in a very good way. Seemingly not a day goes by without some happy foreign soccer fan raving on social media or to the press about quintessentially “American” things—free drink refills, bottomless chips and salsa, ginormous sports stadiums, fancy cars, big houses, ranch dressing, frigid air conditioning, shiny hospitals, etc.—that we consider relatively mundane features of daily life in the United States. (Buc-ee’s, Costco, and Texas Roadhouse have been particularly big hits, and for good reason.)

These viral posts have delighted American onlookers and captured endless media commentary on how the foreigners’ innocent—and often hilarious—observations have helped unite a divided U.S. and remind us locals of just how good we have it. In an era of endless grousing about the U.S. economy—reflected in various surveys of American “sentiment” and sometimes even justified—the ongoing episode has been a welcome, optimistic change of pace and a loud, folk-libertarian reminder that a nation’s capital, policies, and political class are most definitely not the same as its communities and citizens.

The scenes have also raised several noteworthy economic policy points—some good, some ominous—that deserve more attention.

Yes, We Have It Pretty Darn Good

For starters, the amazement of relatively wealthy foreigners—you don’t take weeks off touring America if you’re dirt poor—at relatively middle-class American environments is real-world evidence of our nation’s immense everyday wealth. 

The timing couldn’t be better (and, no, I’m not talking about the A/C-less heatwave in Europe).

As The Economist just documented, earlier this year Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and several other elite economists got into a heated (and very wonky) online debate about whether Americans’ living standards really were zooming ahead of those of our European counterparts.  The main point of contention was how to measure individuals’ purchasing power in both places, with one approach showing an increasing wealth gap and the other (Krugman’s) a relatively steady one. You can see the difference in the chart below: Using a constant “purchasing power parity” adjustment shows France’s GDP per capita—a standard way to measure individual wealth—to be declining versus that of the U.S., while using a “current PPP” adjustment shows little long term change, and thus a different wealth narrative.

As someone who loves both visiting foreign countries and returning home to my American creature comforts, I freely admit my biases in this debate. But both sides do raise some legitimate issues about how we should measure living standards across countries, as well as what should be measured. Overall, the debate has been delightfully intense and catty—at least for nerds like me.

Yet, as The Economist points out, both sides also seem to agree on a few things: First, Europe is growing more slowly than America, thanks in large part to the economic dynamism and tech-fueled productivity here. Second, even Krugman’s pro-Europe data (see chart above)—along with many other sources—show Americans to have higher average wages and more disposable income (yes, even after accounting for out-of-pocket healthcare costs) than the average European in most places (yes, there are exceptions), due to our superior labor productivity and their leisure choices. Third, and most importantly, both sides want to support their reading of the data with an “eye test”—i.e., visiting each place and just looking around—that the economists believe will confirm their own American/European wealth story. 

Hilariously enough, thousands of European World Cup tourists—along with ones from Japan and other countries, too—have performed just that test, mere days after the economists proposed it. And the result is an absolute rout for Team America:

There are many reasons for the foreigners’ astonishment. (A big one, in my opinion, is that these folks are seeing parts of Real America, especially in the Sun Belt and Midwest, that foreign tourists rarely visit, yet—as we’ve discussed here repeatedly—allow not-rich Americans to live very comfortable lives.) And, to be sure, not all the astonishment is genuine. 

But a lot of it obviously is, and at its root lies the Great American Prosperity Machine. Deal with it, haters.

Capitalist “Charity” Is Still Good

Another fascinating and wholesome part of the foreigners’ U.S. experience has been the outpouring of support they’ve received from both normie Americans—workers, neighbors, random passersby, etc.—and a wide range of American celebrities and companies. Most notable in this regard has been German soccer (fußball) fan Freddy, whose daily adventures in Middle America have earned him a giant online following and a Forrest Gump-like amount of in-kind support from pro sports teams, hotels, airlines, and a smattering of famous athletes, entertainers, and politicians (including at least one sitting governor who volunteered to help Freddy attend Germany’s game in Toronto after a flight cancellation). Freddy’s experience is unique, but only in terms of its magnitude: A wide range of U.S. businesses, municipalities, and influencers have rolled out the red carpet for these happy foreign visitors, greatly adding to the entire feel-good experience.

Unsurprisingly, this support has led dismissive cynics to explain that, actually, a lot of it is just a selfish attempt to boost sales, brands, and online engagement instead of genuine generosity and kindness. Some of those allegations are clearly false, but the correct ones are hardly worth complaining about. Instead, they evoke yet another lesson from Adam Smith: “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”

Scholars (ahem) often apply this quote to explain that “selfish” market transactions among free people are not only mutually beneficial but also can have broader social benefits and generate the wealth individuals need to perform charity (which Americans do a lot of, by the way). But Smith’s famous line also often applies to many “charitable” acts by corporations and celebrities: While maybe not motivated by pure altruism, these efforts are often a strategic effort to drive long-term profitability by improving brand reputation, attracting customers and workers, and generating more sales. 

There’s little reason to view such motivation as unseemly. First, the act still makes people better off in some way (and often entertains and encourages onlookers, too), so who cares whether it was done for “benevolent” or “selfish” reasons? “Dinner,” in Smith’s terms, still gets served. Second, it’s usually impossible to say why these “charitable” people and firms decided to help Freddy (and any others in need)—and it’s usually a combination of both sympathy and self-interest/promotion. On the latter motivation, see point 1 and Smith above. On the former, check out his other book.

Tourism as a Massive US Services Export (And Source of “Soft Power”)

Admittedly, the World Cup visitor story isn’t all wine and roses, and there are—as noted—some less-optimistic policy lessons buried in here, too. For one thing, all these visitors are a stark reminder of the economic and geopolitical value of foreign tourism—and its recent, policy-driven decline here in America.

As we discussed last year, one of the more interesting and unfortunate results of Trump’s tariff wars, deportations, and related overseas antagonism (threatening to invade Greenland, calling Canada the “51st state,” etc.) has been foreigners’ independent retaliation against U.S. goods and services. And tourism—a U.S. services export—has been the trend’s most conspicuous victim. According to a May 2026 Congressional Research Service report, in fact, international visits were down in 10 of 12 months last year, with the only increases coming before Trump took office (January) and due to an abnormally late Easter (April):

This drop, in turn, hurt lots of American businesses and likely reduced U.S. economic growth last year by billions of dollars:

According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2023, travel and tourism (both domestic and international) accounted for approximately 3% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), a nonprofit organization that advocates for and researches global tourism, international visitor spending in the United States was approximately $176 billion in 2025, a 4.6% decrease from 2024. WTTC further noted that GDP for the travel and tourism sector increased 4.1% globally in 2025 from 2024 but grew 0.9% for the United States.

On the bright side, CRS goes on to note that the World Cup could boost foreign visits and GDP growth in 2026, and—judging from the packed bars/restaurants and sky-high prices for match tickets, airline fares, and hotel rooms—you can easily see why. Even with a few embarrassing visa-related snafus, the monthlong event has been going pretty smoothly so far and is forecast to attract almost 1.25 million international visitors, each expected to spend more than $5,000 (nearly twice the typical international tourist). None of that erases the roughly $12.5 billion in lost international visitor spending that WTTC projected for 2025, but it’s still a welcome rebound—especially for the smaller American businesses that depend heavily on foreign tourist spending each year.

The scenes of international comity surrounding the World Cup in 2026 are also a vivid, real-time reminder of how U.S. tourism is a market-based source of America’s “soft power,” improving the United States’ image abroad and advancing U.S. geopolitical objectives without spending taxpayer dollars (or doing stuff far worse than just that). Scholars call this the “contact hypothesis,” i.e., the notion that person-to-person encounters can affect overseas perceptions of a country in ways that no government messaging campaign or foreign aid package can match. World Cup visitors’ ecstatic consumption of everyday Americana is soft power in (mostly) organic form, with our culture, hospitality, and abundance doing the diplomatic work that American government officials can’t (or won’t) do.

To be clear, the goodwill America earns from Waffle House, Bass Pro Shops, Fenway Park—and the Americans who live and work near these and other iconic spots—doesn’t automatically translate into durable shifts in foreign acceptance of U.S. policy. But at a time when America’s global image has taken a few (ahem) hits, having a million-plus foreigners document their travels and return home as amateur American ambassadors is a welcome development, reminding people everywhere that the words of one guy in the Oval Office don’t represent a 350 million-person country. 

The only question is whether the foreign tourism boost—and good vibes—can continue after the World Cup ends. The answer, unfortunately, will probably not be in Costco’s hands.

Seeing the Linkages Between Trade and Peace

Relatedly, all these good vibes are a nice reminder of one of the ways that trade—in this case both foreign tourism and global sports entertainment—can help encourage peace. As I documented in a 2020 paper, a wide body of research finds that heightened foreign trade can meaningfully reduce (but not eliminate) the chances of armed international conflict through several channels: 

First, by making countries more commercially interdependent, trade encourages these nations to avoid war or other large-scale armed conflicts (which could impose substantial economic losses). Second, trade and commercial bargaining are more cost-effective than war as a means of resolving disputes with, or obtaining resources from, another country. Third, trade increases material prosperity (e.g., goods, services, investment, ideas) and promotes mutual tolerance and understanding. And fourth, free trade can limit the political power of domestic constituencies that may benefit from increased conflict.

Recent studies reinforce these conclusions. One finds a strong causal “peace dividend” from trade generally, i.e., that a doubling of bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarized conflict by roughly 30 percent. Elsewhere, a recent survey of almost 2,000 Japanese firms finds they routinely pushed for diplomatic solutions to supply-chain disruptions involving allies and adversaries alike—new support for the concept of “commercial peace,” i.e., that global businesses have powerful incentives to oppose wars that might harm their facilities (or, you know, kill their customers).

Regardless of the driver, however, the outcome is clear: While global economic integration can’t eliminate armed conflicts, policies that liberalize trade can make peace among nations more likely—especially when compared to the isolationist, antagonistic alternative the U.S. government is pursuing today.

In their modest but viral way, the million-plus foreigners now cheering in American bars are making a similar point.

A version of this article was published at The Dispatch on 6/25/2026.

Reuters | Air Transport

Jet Fuel Market Adapts Smoothly to Shifting Supply Routes

“Global jet fuel demand is expected to average 7.77 million barrels per day this year, according to the International Energy Agency, little changed from 2025.

With Middle Eastern supply curtailed, ​buyers are seeking fuel from further afield.

One tanker, the Nord Ventura, sailed for more than a month from Louisiana to deliver about 300,000 barrels of jet fuel to Melbourne, the ​first such shipment since at least 2017, according to Kpler data.

Europe has sent a rare cargo to the Seychelles and imported barrels from New York Harbour, a region it typically supplies.

Asia has also drawn in cargoes from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Africa, while China has curbed exports to protect domestic supply.

In effect, the market is redistributing supply globally rather than relying on its most efficient routes.”

From Reuters.

CNBC | Energy Production

Pipeline to Bypass Strait of Hormuz Is Nearly Half Complete

“The United Arab Emirates has built nearly 50% of a second pipeline that will bypass the Strait of Hormuz, said the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, on Wednesday.

‘Right now, too much of the world’s energy still moves through too few chokepoints,’ Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said in an interview at the Atlantic Council.

The new pipeline will double ADNOC’s export capacity through Fujairah, a port that sits on the Gulf of Oman just beyond Hormuz. The UAE has accelerated the construction of the project due to the Iran war. The pipeline is expected to become operational in 2027.”

From CNBC.