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Wheat Superabundance Proves Malthus Wrong

Blog Post | Food Production

Wheat Superabundance Proves Malthus Wrong

Compared to 1960, we can grow 250 percent more wheat on 9 percent more land, at an 85.7 percent lower time price.

Summary: For centuries, people feared that population growth would outstrip food supply, leading to famine and collapse. Yet wheat tells a different story: production has soared, yields have multiplied, and the cost in human effort has plummeted. Despite wars, droughts, and disruptions, innovation and open markets have made wheat more abundant than ever.


The Reverend Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) got it backwards. In his 1798 Essay on Population he warned that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.”

Malthus even added, with no small dose of condescension, that “a slight acquaintance with numbers will shew the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second.”

When Malthus published his essay, the world’s population hovered around 1 billion. By 1960 it had reached 3 billion. Today it stands at roughly 8.2 billion. And yet, instead of mass starvation, food production has outpaced population growth. Consider wheat.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, since 1960 wheat production has surged by 250 percent, while the world’s population grew by only 171 percent. For every 1 percent increase in population, wheat production rose by 1.46 percent. Even more remarkable, this bounty came from just 9 percent more arable land. Wheat yields—the amount harvested per acre—have soared by 271 percent.

But what about the time price? Glad you asked. Since 1960, the time price of wheat has fallen by 85.7 percent.

Put differently, the time it took to earn the money to buy a single bushel of wheat now buys almost seven bushels.

Yes, there have been moments when wheat prices spiked—due to droughts, wars, and politics. Yet with fewer conflicts, relentless innovation, and open markets, wheat has only grown more abundant. If Reverend Malthus could see our world today, I suspect he’d be relieved—and perhaps even delighted—that human ingenuity proved him to be so spectacularly wrong.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

CGIAR | Food Production

More Can Tho Rice Farmers Adopt Mechanized Seeding

“When the Fertilize Right (FerRight) project began working with rice farmers in Can Tho's Thanh An, Thanh Phu, Thoi Xuan, and Trung Hung communes, mechanized direct seeded rice (mDSR) was practiced by fewer than 1 in 100 of them. Two years later, the project's midline farmer survey found that 18% of farmers in these communes had adopted the technology — up from a 2023 baseline of just 0.7%. Fertilizer deep placement, a complementary practice often paired with mDSR, has also taken hold, now reaching 0.5% of farmers and growing. Together, the numbers are one of the clearest signals yet that the project, funded by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and implemented by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), is changing how farmers cultivate their rice.

Unlike traditional broadcast seeding, mDSR, paired with fertilizer deep placement, uses dynamic, air-assisted row seeders to place seed precisely 1 to 2 mm into the soil and deliver nutrients directly to the root zone. Multi-season field trials with the Cuu Long Rice Research Institute (CLRRI), spanning four crops from 2024 to 2026, show why the technology is catching on: seed rates fall by at least 50%, nitrogen fertilizer use drops by at least 20%, and the carbon footprint per kilogram of rice produced falls by at least 10%, alongside more uniform stands and greater resilience to pests, disease, and lodging.

Those gains show up in farmers' fields, too. Comparing mDSR adopters with farmers who still broadcast-seed, the project's farm-level adoption study found mDSR fields yielded 6.81 tons per hectare against 6.67 tons for broadcast seeding — a 2.1% advantage — with nitrogen-use efficiency up 1.4% and net income up 2.7% per hectare.”

From CGIAR.

BBC | U.S. Agriculture

Autonomous Crop Dusters Commercially Approved in US and Brazil

“Self-flying planes have been slower to emerge than self-driving cars, despite operating in what is generally considered a more structured and predictable environment.

That is partly because big tech companies 'doubled down' on cars, pouring vast sums into the technology, says Mykel Kochenderfer, an expert in safe aviation autonomy at Stanford University.

But it is also because aircraft are held to stricter safety standards than cars, creating a much higher bar for deployment…

In the US, the largest autonomous fixed-wing aircraft approved for commercial civilian use so far is Pyka's crop sprayer, which won authorization last year.

Though operations are limited to a tightly defined agricultural setting and require a ground operator and visual observer. It earlier secured similar approval in Brazil, where rules are more permissive…

Supporters say autonomous aircraft could address pilot shortages, remove people from dangerous work such as crop spraying, improve efficiency – for example, by allowing aircraft to carry more cargo – and cut costs if one operator can oversee many planes.

They also argue automation could make flying safer, pointing to past declines in accidents as more automated systems have been introduced.”

From BBC.

Science | Agriculture

Mexico First to Approve RNA-Based Fungicide for Sale

“Grape growers in Mexico have a new tool to fight powdery mildew, a common fungal disease, after the country became the first in the world to approve the commercial sale of an RNA-based biofungicide…

Oifirax, developed by the U.S. company GreenLight Biosciences, uses RNA molecules to silence a gene essential for the survival of the disease-causing fungus Erysiphe necator. The Mexican government announced the product’s commercial approval on 12 August, following a 9-month regulatory process involving the country’s health, agricultural, and environmental authorities…

Scientists have spent more than a decade developing products to control pests and diseases using a process called RNA interference. First off the block were pesticides: In 2023 GreenLight released Calantha, which targets the Colorado potato beetle. The spray uses RNA molecules to block a specific gene that encodes a key protein in the beetle. When the larvae eat leaves that have been sprayed, the RNA makes it into their gut, where cellular machinery destroys the matching messenger RNA (mRNA) that contains the instructions for creating the protein, killing the beetle.

The company’s new fungicide works in a similar way. It targets CYP51, a gene conserved among various fungal species that is involved in producing a crucial compound called ergosterol. When sprayed on grapes affected by powdery mildew, it prevents E. necator from producing ergosterol, causing its cell membranes to break down. This prevents the fungus from growing and ultimately leads to its death.

Oifirax has proved effective in eliminating E. necator without harming species such as monarch butterflies, honey bees, and earthworms, GreenLight CEO Andrey Zarur said during the press conference announcing the approval. He said the company submitted a bioinformatics analysis showing Oifirax doesn’t affect other soil organisms or vertebrates, and that Mexico’s regulatory agency will continue to conduct rigorous studies to ensure its safety.”

From Science.

Reuters | Food Prices

UK Food Inflation Falls Despite Energy Shock

“Britain's food industry warned in February that soaring energy costs following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could push food price inflation towards 10% by Christmas.

Six months later, food ​inflation has instead fallen to a near two-year low, as fierce supermarket competition, consumers' resistance to further price rises and better hedging by suppliers helped absorb ‌the shock.”

From Reuters.