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Wheat Superabundance Proves Malthus Wrong

Blog Post | Food Production

Wheat Superabundance Proves Malthus Wrong

Compared to 1960, we can grow 250 percent more wheat on 9 percent more land, at an 85.7 percent lower time price.

Summary: For centuries, people feared that population growth would outstrip food supply, leading to famine and collapse. Yet wheat tells a different story: production has soared, yields have multiplied, and the cost in human effort has plummeted. Despite wars, droughts, and disruptions, innovation and open markets have made wheat more abundant than ever.


The Reverend Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) got it backwards. In his 1798 Essay on Population he warned that “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.”

Malthus even added, with no small dose of condescension, that “a slight acquaintance with numbers will shew the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second.”

When Malthus published his essay, the world’s population hovered around 1 billion. By 1960 it had reached 3 billion. Today it stands at roughly 8.2 billion. And yet, instead of mass starvation, food production has outpaced population growth. Consider wheat.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, since 1960 wheat production has surged by 250 percent, while the world’s population grew by only 171 percent. For every 1 percent increase in population, wheat production rose by 1.46 percent. Even more remarkable, this bounty came from just 9 percent more arable land. Wheat yields—the amount harvested per acre—have soared by 271 percent.

But what about the time price? Glad you asked. Since 1960, the time price of wheat has fallen by 85.7 percent.

Put differently, the time it took to earn the money to buy a single bushel of wheat now buys almost seven bushels.

Yes, there have been moments when wheat prices spiked—due to droughts, wars, and politics. Yet with fewer conflicts, relentless innovation, and open markets, wheat has only grown more abundant. If Reverend Malthus could see our world today, I suspect he’d be relieved—and perhaps even delighted—that human ingenuity proved him to be so spectacularly wrong.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

WBUR | Pollution

Boston Harbor Shellfish Are Safe to Eat for the First Time in a Century

“It’s been a little over hundred years since residents or fishermen were able to catch shellfish safe to eat in the Boston Harbor…

Now, the state has declared that shellfish from parts of Boston Harbor can be safely caught and eaten again…

Harvesting in the harbor was banned almost entirely in 1925 after contaminated oysters led to a national typhoid epidemic. In the decades since, Boston Harbor has undergone a multi-billion dollar clean-up…

Up until now, only licensed commercial harvesters have been able to fish in certain areas of the harbor. Their catches went through a purification process before being sold and eaten.

Earlier this month, state officials updated the classification for parts of the outer harbor near Hingham, Hull and Winthrop to ‘conditionally approved’ — meaning residents and commercial harvesters alike will soon be able to collect shellfish from those areas.”

From WBUR.

South China Morning Post | Food Production

World’s First Clone-Hybrid Rice Could Double Global Output

“Chinese researchers have developed a revolutionary form of hybrid rice that can replicate itself through seeds that are clones, faithfully preserving high-yield traits generation after generation…

The price of hybrid seeds can reach 200 yuan (US$28) per kilogram in China, and even higher in other countries – up to 100 times more than that of regular rice seeds.

Moreover, the offspring of these high-priced seeds lose their hybrid vigour – superior traits from crossbreeding – forcing farmers to buy seeds again every year.

A research team led by Wang Kejian at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences’ China National Rice Research Institute has developed hybrid rice capable of near-perfect clonal reproduction through apomixis – a process in which seeds develop without fertilisation.

The team’s work, which is pending peer review, was published on the preprint server bioRxiv on October 17 under the title ‘Fixing Hybrid Rice: >99% Efficient Apomixis with Near-Normal Seed Set.’

Its new Fix8 series achieves more than 99.7 per cent cloning efficiency with seed-setting rates rivalling conventional hybrids, effectively creating self-replicating super rice.”

From South China Morning Post.

Our World in Data | Food Production

Food Supplies Everywhere Have Grown Faster than the Population

“We just lived through the period with the fastest population growth in human history. Six decades ago, there were three billion people on our planet. Since 2022, there have been more than eight billion people — an increase of five billion over this period.

It would have been impressive if food supplies had merely kept pace with population growth. But as the chart above shows, they grew even faster. On every continent, food supplies — measured by calories — grew faster than the population. This rise in food production per person was a major reason for the decline of extreme poverty and hunger.”

From Our World in Data.

Mongabay | Food Production

Heat-Resistant Seeds Offer Restoration Lifeline in Brazil

“Fire-resistant seeds offer promise, at a low cost, for restoring areas devastated by burning in Brazil’s Cerrado savanna, a project by biologist Giovana Cavenaghi Guimarães shows.

Guimarães, a doctoral candidate at São Paulo State University (UNESP), focused on five species of Cerrado-native seeds, including jatobá (Hymenaea courbaril), amendoim-bravo (Pterogyne nitens), mulungu (Erythrina mulungu) and canafístula (Peltophorum dubium). All are naturally adapted to extreme heat.

According to Guimarães, these plants can survive in adverse conditions such as the high temperatures caused by wildfires, which makes their seeds ideal for environmental recovery after such events. The species also have a greater germination capacity: on average, 99% of seeds develop into trees…

According to Guimarães, planting seeds of these native fire-resistant species can be a solution to recover large areas destroyed by wildfires, especially in the Cerrado, the Brazilian biome that burns the most. Data from INPE, Brazil’s national space agency, showed 46.8% of all fire outbreaks recorded in the country in the first 10 months of the year — almost 50,000 — occurred in the Cerrado.”

From Mongabay.