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01 / 05
Update on the Five Metals from the Simon–Ehrlich Bet

Blog Post | Natural Resource Prices

Update on the Five Metals from the Simon–Ehrlich Bet

Since 1900, the average abundance of these five metals has increased 36.5 percent faster than the population.

Summary: The Simon–Ehrlich wager famously demonstrated that population growth does not lead to resource scarcity but instead drives innovation and abundance. Since 1900, the production of five metals featured in the bet has risen dramatically. This bolsters Julian Simon’s argument that human ingenuity and technological progress enable us to produce more resources at lower costs, ensuring greater abundance even as populations grow.


Hannah Richie at OurWorldinData.org recently published an insightful article on the five metals featured in the Simon–Ehrlich wager. In 1990, Paul Ehrlich lost the 10-year bet and had to write a check to Julian Simon for $576.07. Simon had let Ehrlich pick the five metals in 1980 when the bet started. The payment reflected the inflation-adjusted decline of 36 percent in the average price of the five metals over the decade. This was despite an extraordinary global population increase during the 1980s of 850 million people (19 percent)—the largest growth in human history. Yet, even with this surge, resource prices dropped, reinforcing Simon’s argument that human population growth, coupled with ingenuity and the freedom to innovate, drives resource abundance rather than scarcity.

Libertarian economist Julian Simon made a famous wager with the renowned doomsayer Paul Ehrlich in 1980. Simon challenged Ehrlich to choose five metals that he believed would increase in price over the next decade. After the bet concluded, Ehrlich, humbled by the outcome, handed Simon a check, having lost the wager.

Richie highlights an important trend: The long-term abundance of these metals has increased significantly. Take a look at the staggering growth in their production since the early 1900s:

The five metals in the Simon-Ehrlich wager have actually become more abundant over time. The production of each of these metals has grown dramatically, defying Ehrlich's predictions of scarcity and rising prices.

Between 1900 and 2000, the global population grew by 400 percent, from 1.6 billion to 8 billion. During the same period, the production of the five metals soared: Chromium increased by an astounding 78,082 percent, copper by 4,062 percent, nickel by 26,918 percent, tin by 226 percent, and tungsten by 4,829 percent. On average, production of these metals rose by 22,823 percent.

The relationship between population growth and resource production is captured by the production elasticity of the population. It is the ratio of the percentage change in production divided by the percentage change in population. On average, every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to a 57.06 percent increase in the production of these five metals.

In our book Superabundance, we compared the time prices of these five metals for blue-collar workers from 1900 to 2018 and have since updated the data to 2022.

The prices of the five metals have also decreased over time, meaning fewer labor hours are required for a worker to afford them. This reflects both rising wages and falling commodity prices, which are indicators of growing progress and abundance.

The charts below detail the growth in abundance for each resource since 1900. Please note that vertical scales differ across the charts. The charts generally show the effects of 9/11, the financial crisis of 2008, and COVID-19 lockdown policies.

Since 1900, the metals have become much more abundant, even as the global population has grown. This demonstrates that humanity is not a burden on the earth's material resources; rather, through innovation and production, people have been able to expand resource availability.

This table summarizes our findings.

Between 1900 and 2022, the production, time price, and abundance of each of the metals have all increased. The chart also highlights the production elasticity of population, showing how the growth in population has been accompanied by a corresponding increase in metal production.

From 1900 to 2022, the global population increased by 400 percent. Over the same period, the abundance of these five metals increased by an average of 546 percent, demonstrating that abundance has grown 36.5 percent faster than the population.

Some have suggested that Simon was just lucky. This is why looking at a much longer time period reveals underlying trends behind temporary fluctuations.

These data reinforce Simon’s prediction: The more people, the more we produce, and the lower the prices.

Tip of the hat: Max More

This article was published at Gale Winds on 1/14/2025.

United States Geological Survey | Mineral Production

Lithium in Eastern States Could Replace Imports for a Century

“The southern Appalachians hold an estimated 1.43 million metric tons of lithium oxide, concentrated in the Carolinas, and the northern Appalachians hold an estimated 900,000 metric tons, concentrated in Maine and New Hampshire, according to estimates in a new USGS scientific paper published in Natural Resources Research. The lithium is present in pegmatites, large-grained rocks similar to granite.

‘This research shows that the Appalachians contain enough lithium to help meet the nation’s growing needs – a major contribution to U.S. mineral security, at a time when global lithium demand is rising rapidly,’ said USGS Director Ned Mamula. ‘USGS mineral science is the leading edge in the effort to restore America’s mineral independence by mapping our nation’s mineral resources. Everything else follows on the science: permitting reform and other policy changes to support investment in clean, responsible mining to 21st century standards, and mining workforce training for new American jobs. The United States was the dominant world producer of lithium three decades ago, and this research highlights the abundant potential to reclaim our mineral independence.'”

From United States Geological Survey.

Live Science | Mineral Production

Countries May Race to Harvest Antarctica’s Huge Mineral Caches

“A warming climate could expose a Pennsylvania-sized chunk of ice-free land in Antarctica by 2300, which could drastically reshape Antarctic geopolitics as well as the continent’s geography.

A study published in Nature Climate Change is the first to incorporate glacial isostatic adjustment — how land beneath heavy ice sheets uplifts after the ice retreats — into projections of ice-free land emergence in Antarctica. The results reveal that climate change could expose potentially valuable mineral resources that may spur renegotiations of the international treaties that currently govern Antarctica…

Within the area that Lucas and the research team projected would be ice-free by 2300 lie known or suspected deposits of copper, gold, silver, iron, and platinum — critical minerals used in manufacturing and valuable metals in and of themselves. In particular, the study found the largest land emergence in Antarctica is likely to occur over territories claimed by Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom and contains a range of mineral deposits, including copper, gold, silver, and iron.”

From Live Science.

Blog Post | Mineral Production

The Most Important Check in Economics

The Simon–Ehrlich wager and why predictions of resource scarcity keep getting it wrong.

Summary: A famous bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich illustrates two ways of thinking about resources and human ingenuity. Ehrlich thought of resources as a fixed pie, while Simon believed that human beings would find ways to make resources more abundant. As Simon predicted, thanks to markets and human ingenuity, the resource prices that Simon and Ehrlich bet on fell over a decade.


One of the most important checks ever written in economics was for $576.07.

It arrived in the mailbox of Julian Simon, the University of Maryland economist and Cato Institute senior fellow, on an October morning in 1990. The envelope was plain. There was no return address. Inside was a check from Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich, who died last week, was the Stanford biologist and author of the bestselling 1968 book The Population Bomb.

That small check settled one of the great arguments of the modern age.

Ehrlich had spent years warning that population growth would outrun the Earth’s resources, bring rising scarcity, and push humanity toward disaster. Simon believed the opposite. He argued that more people did not simply mean more mouths to feed. It also meant more minds to think, invent, and solve problems.

The dispute became so bitter that Simon proposed a bet.

“Pick any raw material,” he told Ehrlich, “and choose any future date. I’ll bet the price will go down.”

Ehrlich accepted. He and two colleagues selected five metals: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. They priced a basket of those commodities on Sept. 29, 1980, and agreed to compare the inflation-adjusted price 10 years later. If the real price rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich. If it fell, Ehrlich would pay Simon.

Ehrlich was certain that population growth would make resources scarcer and therefore more expensive. Simon was certain that human beings would find ways to make resources more abundant.

By Sept. 29, 1990, the world’s population had increased by about 850 million people, a rise of 19 percent. If the doomsayers were right, that should have pushed prices sharply upward.

It did not.

Inflation over the decade was 57 percent. Yet the nominal price of the five-metal basket barely budged, rising from $1,000 to $1,004. In real terms, the basket’s price fell by about 36 percent. Ehrlich mailed Simon the difference: $576.07.

That check mattered because it exposed a mistake that still poisons public debate.

The mistake is to think that natural resources are fixed gifts of nature and that economic life is therefore a grim contest over a pile that can only shrink as population grows. That view sounds sober. It is, in fact, blind to the central truth of human progress.

Resources are not simply things lying in the ground. Resources are matter plus knowledge.

Oil was once a nuisance that seeped into farmland and polluted water. A barrel of oil in the Stone Age was worthless. A barrel of oil in an industrial civilization could heat homes, move trucks, power factories, and feed chemical industries.

Nature gives us atoms. Human beings give those atoms value.

That is why Simon understood something Ehrlich missed. The ultimate resource is not copper or farmland. It is the human mind. More precisely, it is the human mind set free to experiment, trade, specialize, and innovate.

Freedom matters here. People do not solve problems automatically. They solve them when they are allowed to respond to scarcity with invention and enterprise. High prices invite substitution. Competition rewards efficiency. Property rights encourage investment. Markets spread information no planner can gather. Free people learn to do more with less.

This is not a fairy tale in which every problem solves itself. Pollution is real. Bad policy is real. Governments can strangle innovation, distort prices, and lock societies into waste and stagnation. Progress, in other words, is not guaranteed.

But the lesson of the Simon-Ehrlich bet is that the burden of proof belongs to the prophets of permanent scarcity. Time and again, they have underestimated human creativity and overestimated the world’s physical limits.

That is as true today as it was in 1980.

We hear that energy is running out, that growth must stop, that the planet cannot support prosperity for billions, and that human wants must be cut down to fit a closed and exhausted world. This language changes with the decade, but the instinct behind it is old. It treats people as liabilities. It imagines the future as a rationing exercise.

Simon offered a better vision. Human beings are not just consumers of resources. They are producers of ideas. They are creators of substitutes, technologies, and entirely new forms of wealth. They do not merely divide a pie. They learn how to bake bigger pies from ingredients earlier generations did not know they had.

The real contest, then, is not between population and resources. It is between two ways of seeing humanity.

One view sees every additional person as another claimant on scarcity. The other sees every additional person as a possible problem-solver, inventor, entrepreneur, scientist, or worker whose efforts can make life better for everyone else.

The check for $576.07 settled the bet. But the larger wager remains open.

Don’t bet against human beings, especially when they are free.

MINING.COM | Mineral Production

Japan Launches World’s First Deep-Sea Rare Earth Mining Test

“Japan has launched the world’s first test to extract rare earth elements from deep-sea mud, aiming to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.

Chikyu, a government-backed Japanese mining vessel set sail on Monday for waters near Minamitori Island, a remote coral atoll in the Pacific, to study seabed mud rich in rare earth elements at a depth of about four miles. If successful, the project would mark the first sustained attempt globally to lift rare-earth-bearing sludge from the ocean floor directly onto a ship.”

From MINING.COM.