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Time Pricing the Fourth of July Cookout

Blog Post | Food Prices

Time Pricing the Fourth of July Cookout

Independence and abundance.

Summary: The dollar price of a traditional Fourth of July cookout has increased since 2016, but rising wages have more than offset those higher prices. As a result, Americans spend less time working to earn this year’s Independence Day meal than they did a decade ago. Measured in time rather than dollars, the data show that abundance has continued to grow as the population has increased.


Every year, the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates the cost of a traditional Independence Day cookout. The basket includes summer cookout staples such as cheeseburgers, chicken breasts, pork chops, potato chips, pork and beans, fresh strawberries, homemade potato salad ingredients, fresh-squeezed lemonade ingredients, chocolate chip cookies, and ice cream.

Since 2016, the dollar cost of this basket has risen 30.3 percent, from $56.67 to $73.82. At first glance, that suggests celebrating the Fourth of July has become significantly more expensive.

But money prices tell only half of the story. The real question is not how many dollars the meal costs, but how much time people must work to earn those dollars. Since 2016, blue-collar worker hourly earnings increased 50.4 percent, from $21.48 to $32.31 per hour.

Because wages rose faster than prices, the time price of the cookout actually fell 13.4 percent—from 2.64 hours of work in 2016 to just 2.28 hours today, a savings of 21 minutes.

Another way to measure progress is to ask: How much more does the same hour of work buy? We call this the abundance multiplier. Compared with 2016, the same amount of work today buys 15.5 percent more.

America added 22 million people between 2016 and today, a population increase of 6.8 percent. Yet abundance didn’t merely keep pace with population—it grew 2.28 times as fast. Every 1 percent increase in people produced a 2.28 percent increase in cookout abundance. That’s the signature of superabundance: on average, every additional person contributes more than they consume. Even though there are 22 million more of us, we’ll actually spend 7.5 percent less time working as a country to pay for our celebration compared with 2016.

Americans may spend more dollars, but they spend less of their lives earning this year’s Independence Day feast.

Government money printing during the COVID-19 pandemic did cause a temporary spike, but we have returned to the long-term trend of decreasing time prices and increasing abundance.

This year saw a slight reversal. Compared with the record-low time price in 2025, food prices increased 4.1 percent while blue-collar hourly earnings rose 3.5 percent. As a result, the time price of the cookout edged up by just 0.5 percent—less than one minute of additional work. Even after that small increase, the Independence Day cookout remains substantially more affordable in time than it was a decade ago.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

New York Times | Food Production

Why Are Berries Everywhere, in Every Season? Driscoll’s.

“In just the last decade, berries have completed the journey from fragile, local, seasonal treat to worldwide refrigerator staple and marketing juggernaut. Global production has tripled since 2000, according to research from the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization, and still cannot keep up with demand. In sales and volume, berries are the fastest-growing category in American produce, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Most of that growth has been driven by Driscoll’s, a $7 billion California company that began as a multifamily farm in 1904, patented its first strain of strawberries in 1958 and is still controlled by family members. In 1989, its board made what the company calls the Meadowood Declaration, a resolution that seemed preposterous at the time: to make all four berries available, in every season, in every part of the world.”

From New York Times.

Phys.org | Agriculture

Gene Discovery Could Shave Years off Avocado Breeding

“Scientists have found a genetic switch that could shave years off avocado breeding by allowing researchers to identify one of a young tree's most important traits long before it flowers.

Researchers at UC Riverside helped identify the gene that controls whether an avocado tree has an A- or B-type flowering pattern. These flowering patterns determine how neighboring trees exchange pollen, making them an important factor in avocado production…

Avocado growers typically plant a mix of A- and B-type trees because the two flowering patterns complement one another. When one type is releasing pollen during its male phase, the other is more likely to be receiving pollen during its female phase, increasing the chances of successful pollination and fruit production…

Previously, there was no way to determine whether a seedling would become an A- or B-type tree until it matured, a process that can take five to 10 years. The newly identified genetic marker changes that. The gene, known as SDMYB, is a floral transcription factor that controls flowering behavior in avocado trees.”

From Phys.org.

Innovate Animal Ag | Treatment of Animals

In-Ovo Technology Is Making Egg Production More Humane

“Original research conducted by Innovate Animal Ag shows that as of June 1, 2026:

  • 40% of the EU’s commercial egg layer flock was sexed with in-ovo technology–a 6-point penetration increase from April 1, 2025.
  • Since 2021, over 281 million male embryos have been removed before hatching globally.
  • In Europe, in-ovo sexing technology has reached a production rate of 100 million female chicks per year, climbing from 500k chicks per month in 2021 to well over 8 million female chicks per month by the publication of this report, a CAGR of over 75%.
  • In-ovo sexing is beginning its market-based rollout in the US with over 4% of the country’s commercial layer flock having publicly announced a transition to use the technology as existing flocks are retired.
  • In Switzerland, where in-ovo sexing technology kicked off in 2025, in-ovo sexing penetration climbed rapidly and now sits at around 85 to 100% of the country’s layer flock. In Norway, in-ovo sexing has hit a 52% market penetration.
  • The global penetration of in-ovo sexing is forecasted to continue its sharp growth in the next few years, led by expansion in the US, continued strength in Europe as a consequence of Italy’s ban on male chick culling, growth in markets where the technology has recently entered such as Australia and Brazil, and potential penetration into greenfield markets like Canada and China.”

From Innovate Animal Ag.

United Nations | Food & Hunger

Global Hunger Declines Again

“Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025 showing that progress is possible, but gains remain fragile and far too slow to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the 2030 deadline…

The warning comes in the latest edition of The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report issued on Tuesday by five United Nations agencies.

Estimates show that 7.8 per cent of the global population, or roughly 645 million people, faced hunger in 2025.

This is down from 8.1 per cent in 2024 and 8.6 per cent in 2022, or nearly 14 million fewer people than in 2024 and 43 million fewer compared to 2022.”

From United Nations.