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The Deal That Could Kick-Start Africa's Industrial Revolution

Blog Post | Economic Growth

The Deal That Could Kick-Start Africa's Industrial Revolution

Wherever it has been tried, industrialization has lifted millions out of poverty, extended life expectancies, raised literacy rates, and improved living conditions.

It looks likely that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will be implemented in the next few weeks. Only 22 African nations need to ratify the AfCFTA before it can be enacted, and thus far, 19 countries have done so. Last week experts from the United Nations Economic Commision for Africa met to discuss AfCFTA implementation strategies.

The enactment of the AfCFTA is fantastic news for the continent. Securing free trade throughout the continent has the potential to kick-start Africa’s industrial revolution and develop its economy in ways never before seen

Rwandan President Paul Kagame proposed the AfCFTA last March. Since then, 52 of the 55 AU members have endorsed the free-trade area. And, once implemented, the agreement will boost intra-African trade by immediately removing all tariffs on 90 per cent of goods. The remaining ten per cent of tariffs on “sensitive goods” will be phased out later.

Currently, only 18 per cent of exports from African countries are traded within the continent. By comparison intra-regional trade accounts for 69 per cent and 59 per cent of total exports in Europe and Asia, respectively. The United Nations Economic Commission on Africa estimates that under the AfCFTA, intra-African trade could increase by 52.3 per cent by 2022. And once the final 10 per cent of tariffs are removed, this trade could double again.

Increasing intra-African trade spells especially good news for Africa due to the nature of the goods typically traded within the continent. The Brookings Institution notes that when African nations trade with each other, they’re much more likely to trade in higher-value manufactured goods, whereas the exports leaving the continent are typically in commodities.

Many African economies rely heavily on exporting raw materials, and for three-quarters of African nations, commodities account for at least 70 per cent of their exports. This hurts many African economies because raw materials are especially prone to frequent price fluctuations, so reliance on commodities risks economic volatility and unstable business environments.

But there’s good news. Increasing the trade of higher value manufacturing goods through the AfCFTA will help African nations diversify their exports and build more resilience to price fluctuations. A more stable economy will attract investors and allow for the growth of more small and medium enterprises — since smaller businesses with less cash flow are the most vulnerable in a fluctuating economy.

More manufacturing will help Africa’s economy prosper because the fastest-growing regions in the world are the ones that diversify their economies the most. According to Brookings, since 1990 “East Asian economies were able to diversify exports at a rapid pace.” In contrast, “most African countries instead relied on rents from extractive industries.” This means that between 1990 and 2017, East Asia’s GDP increased by over 400 per cent, whereas Africa’s GDP grew by 177 per cent. It’s an impressive figure, but it’s far from the continent’s full potential.

All rich countries have taken the same path to development. They all went through a period of industrialisation, during which the population that had predominantly worked in agriculture (as most Africans do today) moved to cities for better paid factory work. Once people had some disposable income from their manufacturing jobs, they were able to afford to educate their children, who would go on to securer high-paying skilled work.

More ratifications of the AfCFTA are welcome. The continent’s second-largest economy, South Africa, has recently begun the process to ratify the agreement. However, some significant nations, such as Zimbabwe and Nigeria, remain reluctant to ratify. Not ratifying the AfCFTA could prove particularly damaging for Zimbabwe, where 60 per cent of export revenue is reliant on mineral commodities.

By increasing the intra-continental trade of manufactured goods, the AfCFTA really could prove to be revolutionary. Wherever it has been tried, industrialisation has lifted millions out of poverty, extended life expectancies, raised literacy rates, and improved living conditions. And, for those reasons, we should hope the AfCFTA’s 22-member threshold is soon reached.

This first appeared in CapX.

The Keyword | Employment

AI Is Helping Workers Across Jobs, but Not Replacing Them

“Google is launching the first iteration of the AI & Economy ATLAS (Activity, Task, Landscape, and Adoption Study), an ongoing, large-scale, de-identified study of how people are using Google’s AI products and tools…

Here a few of the most interesting observations so far:

  • AI use at work is broad but shallow: Workplace adoption spans all industry sectors and also 68% of all occupations that collectively represent 90% of total U.S. employment. However within jobs, people are using AI selectively: in a typical job AI is used for only ~21% of tasks.
  • At work, most AI use is focused on collaboration and assistance with tasks, and so far task automation is uncommon: ATLAS data shows the vast majority of AI interactions at work focus on collaborative uses such as ideation, strategy, information retrieval, and learning. Tasks like creative design and hypothesis testing (categorized in ATLAS as “non-routine cognitive”) show up in AI work interactions at a much higher rate than in the economy as a whole (65% vs 35%). Less than 10% of those interactions fully automate tasks.
  • AI use is not limited to white collar workers, it’s also assisting workers in predominantly physical and manual occupations with adjacent tasks: AI use for work is not limited to jobs traditionally seen as knowledge work. While not as prevalent, workers in manual and technical trades (e.g., auto technicians, industrial mechanics) are using conversational AI as a live collaborator for real-time diagnostics, troubleshooting, and on-the-fly learning. When workers in these areas use our AI tools, they’re 2x more likely to use multimodal AI (i.e. using AI to create images or video). For example, automotive technicians and industrial mechanics use AI to interpret complex test results, debug electrical wiring, and inspect machinery for wear.
  • AI is delivering value at home that may be missed in standard economic metrics, particularly around high-friction administrative tasks: Over 86% of interactions with AI tools in ATLAS occur outside of work. People are using AI in new and interesting ways not captured in standard economic metrics including productive household activities (e.g. researching purchases, help with using appliances, and tools) and high-friction administrative tasks (e.g. navigating government services like taxes, licensing, and fines).”

From The Keyword.

Blog Post | Employment

Evolving Markets Drove the Remote Work Revolution

Free choices—not mandates—have made flexible work a lasting reality.

Summary: Remote and hybrid work have become a durable feature of the modern workplace, with most remote-capable employees choosing flexible arrangements that benefit both workers and employers. Evidence suggests these models can improve productivity, job satisfaction, health, and employee retention while reflecting voluntary market decisions rather than government mandates. As with many past workplace improvements, adoption has largely preceded legal recognition, suggesting that policy should remove barriers to flexible work instead of attempting to direct it.


Back in 2020, I noted, “The dramatic rise in telework amid the pandemic is a radical experiment, but its effects will be long-lasting.” I was right. Rates of full-time, in-office work plummeted during the pandemic, and while many employers have since shifted from fully remote work to hybrid work schedules, hybrid work levels have remained stable since 2022. In 2025, 78% of full-time remote-capable U.S. employees are either hybrid or fully remote, with hybrid as the most common arrangement.

What is sustaining this transformation of the workplace? The inconvenient answer for those who see government action as the source of progress is that this transformation is thanks to freely chosen, mutually beneficial decisions by employers and employees rather than any top-down mandate. 

The proof is in how durable these patterns have been. Millions of workers and employers continue to choose them because they work. Roughly half of the U.S. workforce consists of employees who are capable of working remote or hybrid jobs. The most common arrangement sees workers commute two days a week and work remotely the other three. Most workers appreciate the flexibility, with a mere 6% of remote-capable workers saying they prefer to work on-site full-time.

An analysis from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that across industries, the rise in remote work and total factor productivity growth may be positively correlated, and many employees report higher productivity at home. Some research also suggests that hybrid and fully remote work may have positive effects on individual employee productivitysatisfaction, and physical health, as well as employee retention.

Historically, most improvements for workers have followed a similar pattern—wherein the market dictates employer-employee relationships, not government—despite a popular narrative to the contrary. The economist Benjamin Powell observed that legal labor standards, working-hour limits, and the introduction of a minimum wage in the United States and other wealthy countries after industrialization largely mirrored policies that employers had already implemented of their own accord. Legislation merely codified preexisting norms instead of prompting a change in industry practices. 

Economist Price Fishback similarly noted, for example, “State laws limiting the number of working hours for women … passed after many employers had substantially reduced hours for women. Recent studies have found that the laws had relatively little effect.” 

A century ago, the Ford Motor Company pioneered limiting the workweek to five days. Ford’s example soon inspired manufacturers across the country and around the world to adopt the Monday-to-Friday workweek. That occurred because employers discovered that productivity increased, while employees valued the extra leisure time. As the economist Ludwig von Mises put it, “The nineteenth century’s labor legislation by and large achieved nothing more than to provide ratification for changes which the interplay of market factors had brought about previously.”

Today, remote and hybrid work often benefits both employers and employees, and this work flexibility rise occurred in spite of many outdated government rules that hinder such arrangements. These rules are in desperate need of reform. For example, various federal tax rules discriminate against remote work arrangements, while differing state rules can subject remote workers to double taxation, and occupational licensing rules limit workers’ options to move between states. If anything, the government has stood in the way of the great workplace transformation toward remote and hybrid work.

Calls to legally mandate remote or hybrid work are a misguided attempt to give the government credit for a shift that has already happened independently of government action. Premier Jacinta Allan of Victoria, Australia, announced that her state government will enshrine a legal right for employees, in both the private and public sectors, who can perform their job from home to do so at least two days a week. The law comes into effect in September.

The legal change will benefit few employees, as 65% of Victorians are already hybrid or remote, but it will create more bureaucratic headaches by adding unnecessary red tape for employers and employees alike. “WFH [work from home] is already happening, and there is no reason to legislate a one-size-fits-all approach,” cautioned Andrew McKellar, the chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

This represents perhaps the first example of a legal entitlement to work from home, coming long after the market has already made such arrangements widespread. “If you can do your job from home, we’ll make it your right—because we’re on your side,” said Allan. In reality, it is employers and employees exercising their freedom in the market, not political mandates, that have made the flexibility of remote and hybrid work widely available today.

This article was originally published at RealClearMarkets on 6/23/2026.

Wall Street Journal | Employment

The New Jobs Being Created by AI

“Artificial intelligence has sparked fears it will become a job killer. It’s also fueling a crop of new careers.

AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as head of AI and AI engineer. That tally doesn’t include the huge number of temporary construction jobs tied to building the mammoth data centers AI relies on…

The fast-emerging new jobs help train AI to improve its performance and take on more tasks, and help train humans to use AI in their work. The jobs run the gamut from high-level careers in AI strategy to hourly work. Many of these new employees work directly for AI companies, but other industries including finance, healthcare and manufacturing are also snapping up such workers as they seek to capitalize on the technology.”

From Wall Street Journal.

World Bank | Quality of Government

Côte D’Ivoire’s Land Reforms Are Unlocking Jobs and Growth

“Secure land tenure transforms dormant assets into active capital—unlocking access to credit, encouraging investment, and spurring entrepreneurship. These are the building blocks of job creation and economic growth.

When landowners have secure property rights, they invest more in their land. Existing data shows that with secure property rights, agricultural output increases by 40% on average. Efficient land rental markets also significantly boost productivity, with up to 60% productivity gains and 25% welfare improvements for tenants…

Building on a long-term partnership with the World Bank, the Government of Côte d’Ivoire has dramatically accelerated delivery of formal land records to customary landholders in rural areas by implementing legal, regulatory, and institutional reforms and digitizing the customary rural land registration process, which is led by the Rural Land Agency (Agence Foncière Rurale – AFOR).

This has enabled a five-fold increase in the number of land certificates delivered in just five years compared to the previous 20 years.”

From World Bank.