fbpx
01 / 05
The Steep Climb of Bicycle Abundance

Blog Post | Cost of Material Goods

The Steep Climb of Bicycle Abundance

Entry-level workers can get 20.9 bicycles today for the time it took to earn one in 1910.

Summary: The bicycle, once a costly luxury, has become a symbol of how innovation transforms scarcity into abundance. What began as a marvel of mechanics in the 19th century is now affordable to nearly everyone, thanks to rising productivity and human ingenuity. Over time, free markets and technological progress have multiplied access to tools of freedom and mobility.


In 1885, John Kemp Starley invented the modern bicycle with two wheels of the same size and a rear wheel connected and driven by a chain. Interest in the new innovation exploded. By the 1890s, Europe and the United States were in the midst of a bike craze. A New York Times article from 1896 gushed that “the bicycle promises a splendid extension of personal power and freedom, scarcely inferior to what wings would give.” Long before their first flight in 1903, the Wright brothers were mastering gears, chains, and balance as talented bicycle mechanics and designers.

In 1910, you could buy a basic bicycle for $11.95 from the Sears, Roebuck, and Co. catalog. This sounds like a low price until you realize that entry-level, unskilled wages were $0.11 an hour. This means that it would have taken 108.6 hours to earn the money to buy one bicycle. Today, you can buy a basic bike at Walmart for $98, and entry-level limited food service workers wages are $18.75 per hour, indicating a time price of 5.2 hours. The time price has fallen 95.19 percent. For the time required to earn the money to buy one bicycle in 1910, you get 20.9 today. Personal bicycle abundance has increased 1,990 percent.

This astonishing increase in bicycle abundance occurred while the global population increased 369 percent, from 1.75 billion to 8.2 billion. Every 1 percent increase in population corresponded to a 5.4 percent increase in personal bicycle abundance. It’s as if all the new people brought their own bicycle as well as extra bicycles to share with everyone else.

When human beings are free to innovate, they turn scarcities into abundances.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

Blog Post | Cost of Material Goods

Ice Blocks to Electrons: The Rise of Refrigeration Abundance

Workers today get 214 refrigerators for the time price of one in 1925.

Summary: A century ago, people used large ice blocks and wooden cabinets to keep food cold. Today, electric refrigeration is more affordable, easy, and reliable thanks to technological innovation. The shift from ice blocks to electrons shows how human ingenuity can transform necessities from costly burdens into everyday conveniences.


In 1925, households kept food cool with iceboxes—wooden insulated cabinets chilled by a block of ice. Depending on size and quality, they typically cost between $15 and $50. With entry-level workers earning about $0.25 an hour, a $35 icebox carried a time price of 140 hours.

Today, a 4.4-cubic-foot mini fridge at Walmart sells for about $184. Entry-level workers in limited-service restaurants earn roughly $18.75 an hour, bringing the time price down to just 9.8 hours.

For the time it took a worker in 1925 to earn the money for one icebox, a worker today can buy 14.3 mini fridges.

The 1925 icebox didn’t actually come with any ice. The price of a 100-pound block of ice in 1925 was typically $0.25, and that could double during “ice famines” caused by mild winters. At $0.25 an hour, a 100-pound block of ice would cost one hour and would generally last for three to seven days. If the ice block lasted five days that would be a time price of 12 minutes a day.

The Walmart mini fridge requires 269 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, or 0.74 kWh per day. Residential electricity runs around $0.12 per kWh, so a year’s supply of electricity for cooling will cost $32.28, or 1.72 hours for entry-level workers. Spread out over the year, it would require 17 seconds a day.

For the time it took a worker in 1925 to earn the money to buy ice cooling for a day, workers today get 43 days of electric cooling.

Electric refrigerators entered American homes in 1927 when General Electric introduced the iconic “Monitor Top,” named for its resemblance to the USS Monitor, a Civil War ironclad warship. The unit sold for $525. With entry-level workers earning $0.25 an hour, the time price came to an extraordinary 2,100 hours. Today, the Walmart mini fridge costs 9.8 hours of work. The time price has fallen 99.53 percent. For the time it took a worker in 1927 to earn enough money for one electric refrigerator, a worker today can buy 214 mini fridges—a stunning increase of 21,300 percent in refrigeration abundance, compounding at 5.62 percent a year.

The US population has tripled from 116 million in 1925 to 348 million today. For every 1 percent increase in population, personal refrigerator abundance has increased 106 percent (21,300% ÷ 200% = 106%).

IEEE Spectrum | Cost of Technology

Sub-$200 Lidar Could Reshuffle Auto-Sensor Economics

“MicroVision, a solid-state sensor technology company located in Redmond, Wash., says it has designed a solid-state automotive lidar sensor intended to reach production pricing below US $200. That’s less than half of typical prices now, and it’s not even the full extent of the company’s ambition. The company says its longer-term goal is $100 per unit. MicroVision’s claim, which, if realized, would place lidar within reach of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) rather than limiting it to high-end autonomous vehicle programs. Lidar’s limited market penetration comes down to one issue: cost.

Comparable mechanical lidars from multiple suppliers now sell in the $10,000 to $20,000 range. That price—roughly a tenfold drop, from about $80,000—helps explain why suppliers now are now hopeful that another steep price reduction is on the horizon.”

From IEEE Spectrum.

San Diego Union-Tribune | Scientific Research

San Diego Startup Goes Toe-to-Toe with Gene-Sequencing Giant Illumina

“Element Biosciences is going toe-to-toe with gene-sequencing giant Illumina, unveiling a device that can read DNA for half the price of the industry leader’s technology.

On Thursday [2/19/26], Element Biosciences announced that its high-throughput benchtop sequencing device called VITARI can deliver a whole genome for $100.

A few years ago, Illumina came out with the NovaSeq, which turned heads for its $200 high-throughput whole genome sequencer.

Element’s VITARI is not only half the price of the NovaSeq, but it’s also a fraction of the size while maintaining lab-grade readings, the company said.”

From San Diego Union-Tribune.

Blog Post | Cost of Living

Are Americans Getting Richer? New Data Might Surprise You

Workers have proven resilient over the past decade, despite inflation and valid affordability fears.

Summary: We introduce the American Abundance Index, which measures living standards by how many hours Americans must work to afford a standard basket of goods, rather than by prices or wages alone. The index uses time prices to show that for most US workers, purchasing power has generally risen over the last two decades, even amid inflation and public pessimism.


The resilience of the American worker is one of the most underreported stories of the 2020s. From red tape to import taxes, successive governments have erected barriers to success. Yet America’s workers have persevered and figured out ways to prosper.

A new American Abundance Index illustrates this. The project from Human Progress, an arm of the Cato Institute, reveals the steady rise of the average worker’s purchasing power. The premise of the index is simple: how many hours do you need to work, compared to the month or year before, to be able to afford the “basket of goods,” which is a standard set of household items and services that comprise the Consumer Price Index used to calculate inflation.

The “time price” is how many hours of work it takes to purchase the basket of goods. The “abundance” is how much of the basket one hour of work can buy. The story told by the index is a very good one: since recordkeeping began, “abundance” for average private sector workers comes out to a net increase of 13.8 percent.

It increased the past year, too. The index shows the average private sector worker saw prices rise by 2.7 percent from December 2024 to December 2025, while their hourly wages grew by 3.8 percent. This means workers could work 1 percent less to buy the same basket of goods. Put differently, workers could afford 1 percent more stuff.

The reason for this is that earnings have continued to outpace inflation. So long as wages increase faster than inflation, the worker gets ahead. And it’s not just desk jobs that have enabled workers to purchase the same amount of goods and services for fewer hours worked. The gain for traditional “blue collar workers” is even higher: a historical net increase of 18.4 percent since 2006.

Despite workers significantly increasing their purchasing power over the past two decades, the past five years have taken a toll. The self-inflicted pain of printing vast sums of money during the pandemic sent the annualized inflation rate to over 9 percent in 2022, far outstripping raises. While inflation is now mostly under control, it has taken time for the gap between wages and inflation to settle, and workers are only now just catching up after their losses during those inflation-heavy years.

Americans continue to rank affordability as a top concern and do not believe the government is doing enough to address the cost of living. These frustrations are understandable. Prices are still rising while tariffs and uncertainty strangle businesses and push consumer confidence to a 12-year low. America’s growth and prosperity story has always been one of fits and starts, and workers are right to demand that government gets out of their way. But the new data make clear that 21st century Americans can still be content about how far they’ve come and optimistic about how far they’ve yet to go.

This article was originally published in the Washington Post on 2/6/2026.