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The Canadian Child-Deaths Would Not Have Shocked Our Ancestors

Blog Post | Overall Mortality

The Canadian Child-Deaths Would Not Have Shocked Our Ancestors

Half of all children died before adulthood in archaic societies, one quarter before their first birthday and another quarter before the age of 15.

Summary: The recent discoveries of unmarked graves at former residential schools in Canada have shocked the world and exposed the brutal legacy of colonialism. However, for most of human history, such atrocities were common and accepted. This article argues that we should appreciate the human progress that has made us more sensitive to this suffering.


Revelations of graveyards containing the bodies of some 4,000 children from the First Nations in Canada have shocked the world. The dead were some of the 150,000 indigenous children sent or forcibly taken to residential schools meant to divorce the former from their birth culture.

The graves represent the injustice and misery of the past, but our reaction to them is proof of our advancement. In pre-industrial times, child deaths were so common that those graves wouldn’t have shocked anyone. In fact, a death rate of some three percent of children is low by historical standards. It was only in the past 50 or 60 years that the child mortality rate fell below 3 percent – even in rich countries.

The usual estimation is that half of all children died before adulthood in archaic societies, one quarter before their first birthday and another quarter before the age of 15, which is the end of puberty and our reasonable definition of becoming an adult. That seems to hold over all societies examined, including the Roman Empire, 18th century Britain, and all other groups of humans over time. (It is also, roughly speaking, true of the other Great Apes.)

This sorry state of affairs was brought to an end in three stages. The first stage was the discovery of infectious disease. John Snow, for example, showed that cholera cycled through the sewage and water systems. His discovery led to the single greatest aid to human health ever: the development of proper water systems, which provide fresh water and carry away sewage. Essentially, drains were the first step in reducing child mortality.

The second stage was the development of antibiotics. As late as 1924, an infected blister killed the U.S. President’s son. It wasn’t until the late 1930s that effective antibiotics were deployed at any scale. It took another decade to discover a treatment for tuberculosis, which was one of the great killers of the first half of the 20th century.

The third stage was the development of vaccines for common childhood diseases. Smallpox had been preventable since the 1790s with vaccination and through variolation before that. But polio remained a problem until the 1950s and measles into the 1960s. That last disease could, if unleashed against a population with no resistance at all, kill over 10 percent of people infected.

The combined effect of these discoveries – alongside better medical care, nutrition, shelter, and heating – has been a 100-fold reduction in youth mortality over the 20th century. The process isn’t finished yet. Far too many children still die due to a lack of access to clean water, antibiotics, and desirable immunizations. But those discoveries are all spreading, and, in that sense, the world is getting better at record speed.

In rich nations, such as Canada, Britain, the United States, the child mortality rate ranges from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent – down from 50 percent in human history. A significant portion of the remaining mortality is due to accident, not disease.

This article is not meant to diminish the pain of losing a child or to suggest that pain was lighter in the past because it was reasonable to expect to lose a child. Rather, it is to point out how that loss is so much less common today.

Nor is it implying that the First Nations children in Canada were treated acceptably. Rather, the above data is meant to remind the reader that previous generations of humans would have found nothing strange at all about graveyards full of children. That we find them shocking today is proof of human progress.

Today’s expectation, an entirely reasonable one, is that any child born today will live between 70 and 80 years. We’re in the first two or three generations of humans who ever existed where the assumption of reaching adulthood is better than a 50/50 break. How can that not be thought of as progress?

Blog Post | Health & Medical Care

This Mother’s Day, Celebrate Progress for Mothers and Children

The woman who inspired Mother’s Day lost 9 of her 13 children to now-preventable illnesses.

Summary: The life of Ann Jarvis, the woman who inspired Mother’s Day, was filled with tragedies that illustrate the difficulties of motherhood in the past. With almost nonexistent prenatal care, only 4 of her 13 children reached adulthood. Learn more about the progress made in maternal and childhood health in this article by Chelsea Follett.


This article originally appeared in The Virginian‐​Pilot.

Few know the story of the woman who inspired Mother’s Day. Her name was Ann Jarvis, and the many tragedies in her life demonstrate how much more difficult motherhood was in the past and the progress that has been made since.

Ann was born in 1832 in Virginia, and married at age 18. After marrying, Ann had 13 children over the course of 17 years. In that era, prenatal care was almost nonexistent. During the 19th century, about 500 to 1,000 mothers died for every 100,000 births. Giving birth 13 times, as Ann did, meant that she faced between a 6 and 13 percent chance of death. Fortunately, she survived. Today, the maternal mortality rate, while still higher in poor countries than in rich ones, is falling—decreasing from 342 deaths per 100,000 live births in the year 2000 to 211 per 100,000 in 2017, the World Bank’s most recent year of data.

Children also faced fearful survival odds and were often killed by childhood ailments that are now preventable or treatable. Ann’s family was no exception: only four of her children lived to adulthood. Her children died of illnesses such as measles, typhoid, and diphtheria, which are now far less common thanks to vaccines and better sanitation. 

The grief of losing nine children is beyond the imagination of most people today. Ann faced better odds than her foremothers in this regard, although she fared worse than the statistical average. The average number of a mother’s children lost to premature death had fallen from three in 1800 to just two in 1850, the year that Ann wed. That figure fell to one child in 1900. Today, thankfully, childhood death is extraordinarily rare in developed countries, where most mothers can expect to see all of their children survive. That progress is ongoing, and has come about thanks to medical advances, improved sanitation, and rising prosperity to fund them—as well as the efforts of people like Ann.

In 1858, while she was pregnant with her sixth child, Ann began organizing women’s clubs with the goal of reducing childhood death. The clubs raised funds to buy medicine for local children, hired assistants for mothers suffering from tuberculosis, brought supplies to sick quarantining households to prevent the spread of disease, and more. “The clubs inspected food and milk for contamination—long before governments took on such tasks—and they visited homes to teach mothers how to improve sanitation. Ann became a popular speaker, addressing subjects [such as] ‘Great Value of Hygiene for Women and Children.’” 

Ann helped popularize the practice of boiling drinking water in her community, preventing cases of the often‐​deadly waterborne illnesses (such as tuberculosis and typhoid fever) that ravaged humanity before widespread chlorination.

Despite the demands of childrearing and her volunteer work on behalf of mothers and children, Ann also found time to organize efforts during the Civil War to treat wounded soldiers from both sides. A devout Methodist, Ann was also active in her religious community and taught Sunday School lessons.

Anna, one of Ann’s four children to make it to adulthood, created Mother’s Day in Ann’s honor. She was inspired by something Ann had said during Sunday School: “I hope and pray that someone, sometime, will found a memorial ‘mother’s day’ commemorating her for the matchless service she renders to humanity in every field of life. She is entitled to it.” 

Given her tireless work to improve maternal and childhood health, Ann certainly deserves credit. This Mother’s Day, despite the problems that remain, take a moment to appreciate progress in the fight against premature death for mothers and their children.

Blog Post | Health & Medical Care

Your World, Better: Global Progress And What You Can Do About It

An excerpt from the new book detailing positive trends, the problems that remain and what we can do about them.

Summary: The world has improved dramatically in many aspects, from health and longevity to literacy and freedom. Yet many people are unaware of this progress and are pessimistic about the future. This article presents some evidence of global improvement, the challenges that remain, and the ways that everyone can contribute to making the world better.


Louis XIV (the Fourteenth) reigned over France for 72 years, from 1643 to 1715. Calling himself ‘The Sun King,’ he ruled with absolute authority over the most powerful country in Europe. As symbol of his dominance, he built the immense Palace of Versailles, home to more than 350 people and regular host to 6,000 courtiers. Its famed Hall of Mirrors was lit by 3,000 candles. The gardens had a zoo, 400 sculptures and more than a thousand fountains.

But for all his wealth and power, Louis’ life was filled with tragedy. He and his wife Maria Theresa had six children but only one survived into adulthood. Three kids died as infants, Philippe Charles died at three of a chest infection and Marie Therese at age five from tuberculosis – a bacterial disease that eats away your lungs. Even their longest-lived child, Louis the Grand Dauphin, did not survive long enough to become king after his father, dying of smallpox at the age of fifty. The Sun King’s wife Maria died at 44, from infection. And he himself died at age 77 when his leg was infected with gangrene, which rots flesh.

Beyond good health, King Louis’s family lacked a lot else: their palace may have had a thousand fountains, but it didn’t have a single flush toilet – lucky people went in a bowl that servants would remove, others just squatted in a corner. And while six thousand candles may sound like a lot, they produce about the same amount of illumination as a couple of modern light bulbs. Most of Versailles would have been pitch black as soon as it got dark.

When it comes to quality of life, you may have it better than the family of the Sun King. You definitely have it better when it comes to remaining alive: it is doubtful that any of his family would have died as they did if they’d had access to modern medicine. And this was the wealthiest family in the most sumptuous house in the land – the vast majority of French people at the time lived lives that we would simply find unbearable. The world is just a much better place to inhabit than it was 300 years ago. But it is also a much better place to live in than it was 30 years ago.

One way of looking at that improvement is to think about the chance you’d be reading this book if I’d written it a few hundred years ago. There is a very good probability you would have been too dead to read it. Even if alive, the likelihood you could read anything was small: literacy was a rare skill. Books were incredibly expensive, and most people were very poor, so even if you were in the tiny minority both literate and alive you probably wouldn’t have been able to afford a copy. And in many times and places this book would have been banned –it speaks approvingly of things that were often illegal or at least very dangerous to suggest, from freedom to believe in the god of your choice (or none at all) through gay rights to democracy.

Young (and old) people are getting sick less often, fewer people never learn to read or write, not as many are getting arrested by the police because of what they think and believe, less are getting hit or shot, and a lot less people are being told it’s the law that the color of your skin or your gender makes you a worse person.

It might come as a surprise that the world is getting better. Most people believe poverty is getting worse worldwide and that most other people are miserable. Ask someone your grandparents’ age if things have improved since they were young and they might well say no. Only about one out of every three older people in the United States think life is better today than it was fifty years ago –and these are the people who are old enough to remember fifty years ago. But even after Covid-19, even despite the tragedies of the past few years, I think they are wrong.

Mostly, people remember the good stuff and forget the bad stuff about their past. Adults tend to remember childhood as a time of boundless energy where there was nothing to worry about and a lot of fun to be had. Life as a kid is more complicated than that. But its why older people can say “you don’t know how lucky you are” and “things were better in my day” pretty much straight after each other. They mean “you are lucky to be young but unlucky to be a kid today rather than when I was a kid.” I’d say the truth is closer to the other way around – although there are some really good bits about being young.

Ask someone in their seventies or eighties what they got sick with, and what their friends got sick with. Or ask them about “duck and cover” drills at school, when they practiced for war with Russia

and the atomic bombs that would fall. Or ask them about how African Americans were treated in restaurants, on trains, or in the school system. Or ask someone your parents’ age about where they could watch a show – just one TV in the house, maybe, which had maybe four or five things to watch. Ask them if they wore a seatbelt in the back of the car. Ask them about ‘acid rain.’ Their answers might be reason for them – and you – to think hard about the good old days, and how good they were compared to now.

And even though life in America has got better since your parents or your grandparents were young, life in the rest of the world has got better even faster. We are really fortunate we live in this country, because people in the U.S. are still amongst the healthiest, the most educated, and the richest worldwide. But the rest of the planet is catching up. From Asia to Africa to South America, fewer people are dying young, fewer people don’t learn to read, fewer people urinate or defecate in a field or street rather than in a toilet.

In the past years of pandemic, economic crisis and mass unemployment, the violent death of innocent people and violence aimed at those who protest those deaths, war, hurricanes, corruption and abuse, certainly the world hasn’t gotten better for many of us.

Some people still die young. Many people lose a parent or a grandparent – or more than one—way too early. Families still live lives of hunger and misery. Covid-19 and its impacts demonstrate we can backtrack on health and poverty. People still get locked up, often for things that shouldn’t be a crime. Racism, sexism, and abuse of minorities remains rampant worldwide. Amongst the things that are getting worse, progress towards democracy has reversed in recent years, the coral reefs are bleaching, and the climate is getting hotter.

Perhaps it is not enough to know there’s less bad stuff happening when so much bad stuff is still happening. Certainly, in a world richer and more technologically advanced than ever, it is more shocking than ever that some people remain living in extreme deprivation. But past progress does suggest that there’s nothing inevitable about tragedy or misery. If we work together, the world can continue to improve. No individual human being has solved a global problem by themselves, but billions have been part of solutions. And you can be, too.

This is an excerpt from the book Your World, Better: Global Progress And What You Can Do About It.