“I’m writing this post because when I look at all the publicly available information I reluctantly come to the view that there’s a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D – an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor – happens by the end of 2028.

This is a big deal.

I don’t know how to wrap my head around it.

It’s a reluctant view because the implications are so large that I feel dwarfed by them, and I’m not sure society is ready for the kinds of changes implied by achieving automated AI R&D.

I now believe we are living in the time that AI research will be end-to-end automated. If that happens, we will cross a Rubicon into a nearly-impossible-to-forecast future. More on this later.

The purpose of this essay is to enumerate why I think the takeoff towards fully automated AI R&D is happening.”

From Import AI.

“Most people in the world would think very little before flicking on the lights, charging a mobile phone or turning on a laptop to read this.

But that’s a very different reality from the almost 700 million people in the world who have no access to electricity. While this number is large, it has halved this century, falling from 1.35 billion to 675 million. You can see this in the chart.

However, this progress has been far from even. The number has fallen across all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa, where it has increased.

That doesn’t mean no progress has been made: the share of people in Sub-Saharan Africa with electricity has doubled, rising from 26% to 53%. But population growth has outpaced this expansion, meaning the number of people without electricity has still risen.”

From Our World in Data.

“Suicide deaths among young adults and youth declined after a federal agency simplified the phone number for a national crisis hotline and increased resources, a new study says…

Patel, a clinical fellow in surgery at Harvard Medical School and surgical resident at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, said that when researchers first examined figures for all age groups, the lifeline’s potential impact appeared to be slight.

But when they broke down the data, they saw a significant decline among those age 15 to 34 — encompassing the high-risk teenage years — that had been masked by results in other groups.

The researchers noted a decline from both observed suicide deaths in 2022 and from predictions based on a long-term upward trend. In 2010, about 11 suicides per 100,000 were reported in that age group. By 2022, that had risen to nearly 18 per 100,000. Three years after the 988 number went online, however, that had fallen to approximately 15 per 100,000, according to the study…

In addition to the nationwide figures, state-by-state data also shows an association with the establishment of the 988 number.

The 10 states with the largest increases in calls after its establishment — 146.2 percent more — also saw a larger decline in suicide deaths, about 18.2 percent. The 10 states with the lowest call volume increase — about 23.6 percent — saw a lower, 10.6 percent decline.”

From Harvard Gazette.

“If you walk into an emergency room (ER) in 10 years, you’ll encounter a new type of caregiver: an artificial intelligence (AI) system designed to get you a diagnosis faster and help your care team make more informed decisions. While you sit in the waiting room, you’ll be hooked up to a blood pressure cuff that’s constantly and autonomously monitored. All the while, an AI agent will be listening in while you and your doctor talk about your symptoms, ready to flag any mistakes your physician makes or suggest next steps.

This vision of AI-assisted emergency health care may soon be reality. In a new study, researchers show that a type of AI known as a large language model (LLM) often outperformed physicians at diagnosing complex and potentially life-threatening conditions, including decreased blood flow to the heart, even in the fast-moving stages of real ER care when information is limited, they report today in Science. In early ER cases, the model identified the correct or a very close diagnosis in about 67% of cases, compared with roughly 50% to 55% for physicians. And the technology is only getting better.”

From Science.