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Starlink Is Riding Down the Wright’s Law Cost Curve

Blog Post | Communications

Starlink Is Riding Down the Wright’s Law Cost Curve

Elon Musk is using his billions to relentlessly discover new knowledge

In contrast to Moore’s Law, which is based on time, Wright’s Law predicts that with every doubling of cumulative product output, costs per unit will decrease 20 to 30 percent. SpaceX continues to ride down the Wright’s Law cost curve for satellite bandwidth capacity. ARK Invest estimates a 45 percent decline for every cumulative doubling in gigabits per second in orbit. They report:

Since 2004, the cost of satellite bandwidth has dropped 7,500-fold, from $300,000,000 to $40,000/Gigabits per second (Gbps). Thanks to Starship, costs could fall another 40-fold to ~$1,000/Gbps by 2028. Because 1Gbps can serve 200 customers at a capital cost of ~$1,000/Gbps, SpaceX could recoup its Starship investment with a one-time charge of $5 per customer.

SpaceX’s Starlink V3 program delivers 1 terabit per second (Tbps) of downlink speed, 10 times that of V2 Minis. A Starship V3 launch should add 60 Tbps to the network, over 20 times a V2 Mini launch.

As of September 2024, Starlink had reported four million customers globally, up from a million subscribers in December 2022. This means Starlink is growing by 100 percent each year. At this rate, everyone on the planet will be using Starlink in 14 years.

Today, Starlink Residential costs around $400 for the hardware and $50 a month for unlimited data service. If you’re a typical blue-collar worker, you’re earning $37 an hour in wages and benefits. The monthly time price is 1.35 hours ($50 ÷ $37), or around 2.7 minutes a day. For this time, you get access to a multitrillion-dollar communication-information system. Nice.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

CNBC | Communications

Young People Are Adapting to Social Media Through Moderation, Selectiveness

“A 2025 Deloitte consumer trends survey of more than 4,000 Brits found that nearly a quarter of all consumers had deleted a social media app in the previous 12 months, rising to nearly a third for Gen Zers.

Meanwhile, social media use has steadily declined since time spent on the platforms peaked in 2022, according to an analysis of the online habits of 250,000 adults in more than 50 countries by the Financial Times and digital audience insights firm GWI.

Globally, adults 16 and over spent an average of two hours and 20 minutes per day on social platforms by the end of 2024, down almost 10% since 2022, the report found. The decline was particularly pronounced among teens and 20-somethings.”

From CNBC.

Wired | Health & Medical Care

What It’s Like to Have a Brain Implant for 5 Years

“Rodney Gorham recently passed a milestone that few people have reached. He’s had a brain-computer interface implanted for five years.

Made by startup Synchron, the experimental implant allows him to control a computer and other digital devices around his home using just his thoughts. It’s been a lifeline for 65-year-old Gorham, who has amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS, and can no longer walk, talk, or move his hands.

Synchron is among several companies, including Elon Musk’s Neuralink, aiming to commercialize brain-computer interfaces to help individuals with paralysis. Over the past five years, Synchron’s software and hardware have gone through many iterations, with Gorham helping to shape the evolution of the technology. Out of the 10 volunteers to get Synchron’s implant, Gorham has been living with it the longest. He received it in December 2020 as part of a trial in Australia. (The longest-ever user of an implanted brain-computer interface is Nathan Copeland, who’s had one for more than 10 years. He has four research-grade arrays in his brain made by Blackrock Neurotech.)”

From Wired.

CNBC | Communications

Starlink and Deutsche Telekom to Launch Satellite Mobile Service

“SpaceX’s Starlink will partner with German telco giant Deutsche Telekom to launch a satellite-based mobile service in 10 European countries, the companies announced on Monday.

The service will go live in 2028 and bring mobile communications to areas where network expansion is particularly challenging, including in areas with nature conservation requirements or demanding topography, Deutsche Telekom said in a statement.

The launch will be the first in Europe to use Starlink’s second-generation satellites, known as V2, the company said.”

From CNBC.

The Guardian | Mental Health

Social Media Time Does Not Worsen Teenagers’ Mental Health

“Researchers at the University of Manchester followed 25,000 11- to 14-year-olds over three school years, tracking their self-reported social media habits, gaming frequency and emotional difficulties to find out whether technology use genuinely predicted later mental health difficulties.

Participants were asked how much time on a normal weekday in term time they spent on TikTok, Instagram, Snapchat and other social media, or gaming. They were also asked questions about their feelings, mood and wider mental health.

The study found no evidence for boys or girls that heavier social media use or more frequent gaming increased teenagers’ symptoms of anxiety or depression over the following year.

Increases in girls’ and boys’ social media use from year 8 to year 9 and from year 9 to year 10 had zero detrimental impact on their mental health the following year, the authors found. More time spent gaming also had a zero negative effect on pupils’ mental health.”

From The Guardian.