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01 / 05
Our Editor’s 2025 End-of-Year Missive

Blog Post | Human Development

Our Editor’s 2025 End-of-Year Missive

Another year comes to an end and, judging by some of America’s smartest commentators, it shan’t be missed. The war in Ukraine rages on. U.S. debt is stratospheric. Conspiracies abound. Populism of left-wing and right-wing varieties marches on. There is plenty that is wrong with the world. But that was always the case and always will be, for, as Immanuel Kant reminds us, “Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.”

I am not so dismissive. Though I am frequently described as the Cato Institute’s resident optimist, I prefer to call myself a realist. Let me explain.

First, human “progress does not mean,” in the Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker’s words, “that everything becomes better for everyone everywhere all the time. That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle but problem-solving.” And behind the gory headlines that capture the public’s attention, millions of intelligent and industrious people across the globe are doing just that.

Malcolm Cochran, our digital communications manager, has laboriously collected 1,084 good-news stories, most of which never made it onto the front pages of the world’s newspapers. Here are some highlights:

  • Life expectancy has continued to rise in the world’s longest-lived countries, indicating ongoing progress against mortality at older ages.
  • In 2024, about 8.2 percent of people (roughly 673 million) were undernourished, 14 million fewer than in 2023.
  • Extreme poverty was estimated at 10.5 percent in 2022 (about 838 million people) and is projected to fall to 9.9 percent by the end of 2025.
  • Child extreme poverty fell from 507 million (2014) to 412 million (2024).
  • The number of child laborers dropped by over 100 million since 2000, even while the global child population grew by about 230 million.
  • Safely managed drinking-water access expanded to 2.2 billion more people between 2000 and 2024.
  • Safely managed sanitation expanded to 2.8 billion more people between 2000 and 2024.
  • Measles deaths fell about 88 percent since 2000, and measles vaccination is estimated to have saved nearly 59 million lives since 2000.
  • The global maternal mortality ratio fell by about 40 percent from 2000 to 2023.
  • The global suicide rate fell by about 35 percent over the last 20 years.

Second, I believe we are experiencing a contagion of negativity, driven by the hypercompetitive media environment, with newspapers, television stations, radio, and websites presenting a highly skewed picture of the state of the world. If it bleeds, it leads. But do not blame the media alone. Humans evolved to prioritize bad news, which means that, as experiments show, our eyes gravitate toward negative stories even when we deliberately set out to consume positive content. If you doubt that, the George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen makes a similar point in a podcast we recorded earlier this year.

So, when I say that I am a realist, I mean to convey that the true state of the world is much better than it seems from the barrage of negativity that the public is exposed to daily.

The problem, as always, is that unless you make a concerted effort to seek out good news, such as by signing up for our Doomslayer newsletter, you may never learn about the gradual, incremental improvements occurring around the world each day. Even then, it is easy to be overwhelmed by terrible headlines elsewhere, contributing to rising anxiety and depression. For that reason, I am particularly pleased that we expanded our team to include Adam Omary, a freshly minted PhD from Harvard University’s psychology department.

Adam joined Human Progress as a research fellow in October 2025. In his first three months, he published four articles, recorded two interviews for our podcast, and launched The Psychology of Progress on Substack. He is also co-directing a Cato initiative to commission original empirical studies on the psychological trade-offs of material, technological, and social progress. The project aims to understand why mental health appears to be faltering in the some prosperous societies and what psychological or cultural conditions are necessary to promote and sustain human flourishing.

Chelsea Follett recorded several podcasts and authored opinion pieces that appeared in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, U.S. News & World Report, The Hill, and elsewhere. She gave numerous presentations, including at the New Orleans Book Festival and at universities in Texas and Florida. Her book Centers of Progress was republished in Korean. Chelsea completed the manuscript for her second book, which seeks to de-romanticize the preindustrial past, as well as a draft of a new policy analysis paper coauthored with George Mason University’s Vincent Geloso on global inequality; both will be published next year.

Saul Zimet improved and expanded Human Progress’s use of AI across the website and social media to make our content more visually compelling and better optimized for digital platforms. Most notably, what began as a relatively simple experiment in creating Chelsea’s AI clone in late 2024 has blossomed into a suite of fine-tuned AI avatars of me, Chelsea, and Gale Pooley. That work has resulted in 54 mixed-media videos on our social accounts, along with much more content on our website.

Malcolm Cochran was busy managing our social media presence and newsletter. Across all platforms, our audience grew by 14,000, and our content was viewed more than 32 million times. He also workshopped and significantly improved his progress roundups, transforming them from a low-profile side project into a polished and widely read weekly feature. As noted, you can see the culmination of his efforts in this year’s list of 1,084 good-news stories.

As for me, it has been a busy year. I recorded several podcasts and traveled across the United States to give talks. My articles appeared in the Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Free Press, The Dispatch, Quillette, and elsewhere. Last month, I recorded what may well be the world’s first course on human progress for the Peterson Academy. The book on degrowth and romanticism that I am co-writing with the State University of New York-Oswego philosopher Craig Delancey is progressing, and we hope to have the manuscript ready in the first half of next year.

Those, then, are some of the efforts our team has made over the last twelve months to promote and defend human progress. The hours are long, but ours is a labor of love.

United Press International | LGBT

Philippine Court Allows Same-Sex Partners to Co-Own Property

“Same-sex partners can legally co-own property in the Philippines, the nation’s Supreme Court announced Tuesday, a landmark decision for LGBTQ rights in the overwhelmingly Christian nation.

The ruling, which was dated Thursday but released Tuesday, states for the first time that same-sex partners can jointly own property under Article 148 of the Family Code, the country’s primary law governing marriage, family and property relations.”

From United Press International.

World Health Organization | Gender Equality

Global Momentum Builds to End Female Genital Mutilation

“Interventions aimed at ending female genital mutilation over the last three decades are having an impact, with nearly two-thirds of the population in countries where it is prevalent expressing support for its elimination.

After decades of slow change, progress against female genital mutilation is accelerating: half of all gains since 1990 were achieved in the past decade reducing the number of girls subjected to FGM from one in two to one in three.”

From World Health Organization.

Blog Post | Wealth & Poverty

Dinner With Dickens Was Slim Pickins

Claims that characters in "A Christmas Carol" were better off than modern Americans are pure humbug.

Summary: There have recently been widespread claims that Dickens’s working poor were better off than modern minimum-wage workers. Such comparisons rely on misleading inflation math and selective reading. The severe material deprivation of Victorian life—crowded housing, scarce possessions, and basic sanitation problems—dwarfs today’s standards. Modern Americans, even at the lower end of the income scale, enjoy far greater material comfort than the Cratchits ever did.


Christmas is often a time for nostalgia. We look back on our own childhood holidays. Songs and traditions from the past dominate the culture.

Nostalgia is not without its purposes. But it can also be misleading. Take those who view the material circumstances of Charles Dickens’s “A Christmas Carol” as superior to our own.

Claims that an American today earning the minimum wage is worse off than the working poor of the 19th century have been popular since at least 2021. A recent post with thousands of likes reads:

Time for your annual reminder that, according to A Christmas Carol, Bob Cratchit makes 15 shillings a week. Adjusted for inflation, that’s $530.27/wk, $27,574/yr, or $13.50/ hr. Most Americans on minimum wage earn less than a Dickensian allegory for destitution.

This is humbug.

Consider how harsh living conditions were for a Victorian earning 15 shillings a week.

Dickens writes that Mr. Cratchit lives with his wife and six children in a four-room house. It is rare for modern residents of developed nations to crowd eight people into four rooms.

It was common in the Victorian era. According to Britain’s National Archives, a typical home had no more than four rooms. Worse yet, it lacked running water and a toilet. Entire streets (or more) would share a few toilets and a pump with water that was often polluted.

The Cratchit household has few possessions. Their glassware consists of merely “two tumblers, and a custard-cup without a handle.” For Christmas dinner, Mr. Cratchit wears “threadbare clothes” while his wife is “dressed out but poorly in a twice-turned gown.”

People used to turn clothing inside-out and alter the stitching to extend its lifespan. The practice predated the Victorian era, but continued into it. Eventually, clothes would become “napless, threadbare and tattered,” as the historian Emily Cockayne noted.

The Cratchits didn’t out-earn a modern American earning the minimum wage. Mr. Cratchit’s weekly salary of 15 shillings in 1843, the year “A Christmas Carol” was published, is equivalent to almost £122 in 2025. Converted to U.S. dollars, that’s about $160 a week, for an annual salary of $8,320.

The U.S. federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour or $15,080 per year for a full-time worker. That’s about half of what the meme claims Mr. Cratchit earned. Only 1% of U.S. workers earned the federal minimum wage or less last year. Most states set a higher minimum wage. The average worker earns considerably more. Clerks like Mr. Cratchit now earn an average annual salary of $49,210.

Mr. Cratchit couldn’t have purchased much of the modern “basket of goods” used in inflation calculations. Many of the basket’s items weren’t available in 1843. The U.K.’s Office of National Statistics recently added virtual reality headsets to it.

Another way to compare the relative situation of Mr. Cratchit and a minimum-wage worker today is to see how long it would take each of them to earn enough to buy something comparable. A BBC article notes that, according to an 1844 theatrical adaptation of “A Christmas Carol,” it would have taken Mr. Cratchit a week’s wages to purchase the trappings of a Christmas feast: “seven shillings for the goose, five for the pudding, and three for the onions, sage and oranges.” Mr. Cratchit opts for a goose for the family’s Christmas meal. A turkey—then a costlier option—was too expensive.

The American Farm Bureau Federation found that the ingredients for a turkey-centered holiday meal serving 10 people cost $55.18 in 2025. At the federal minimum wage, someone would need to work seven hours and 37 minutes to afford that feast.

A minimum-wage worker could earn more than enough in a single workday to purchase a meal far more lavish than the modest Christmas dinner that cost Mr. Cratchit an entire week’s pay. And the amount of time a person needs to work to afford a holiday meal has fallen dramatically for the average blue-collar worker in recent years despite inflation. Wages have grown faster than food prices.

There has been substantial progress in living conditions since the 1840s. We’re much better off than the Cratchits were. In fact, most people today enjoy far greater material comfort than did even Dickens’s rich miser Ebenezer Scrooge.

This article was originally published in the Wall Street Journal on 12/23/2025.

Associated Press | Trade

India and the EU Announce a Free Trade Deal Affecting Billions

“After nearly two decades of negotiations, India and the European Union announced Tuesday they have reached a free trade agreement to deepen economic and strategic ties. The accord, which the EU chief described as the ‘mother of all deals,’ could affect as many as 2 billion people…

The accord will see free trade on almost all goods between the 27 members of the EU and India, covering everything from textiles to medicines and bringing down high import taxes for European wine and cars.”

From Associated Press.