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No, Prosperity Doesn’t Cause Population Collapse

Blog Post | Population Growth

No, Prosperity Doesn’t Cause Population Collapse

Wealth doesn’t have to mean demographic decline.

Summary: For decades, experts assumed that rising prosperity inevitably led to falling birth rates, fueling concerns about population collapse in wealthy societies. But new data show that this link is weakening or even reversing, with many high-income countries now seeing higher fertility than some middle-income nations. As research reveals that wealth and fertility can rise together, policymakers have an opportunity to rethink outdated assumptions about tradeoffs between prosperity and demographic decline.


For years, it was treated as a demographic law: as countries grow wealthier, they have fewer children. Prosperity, it was believed, inevitably drove birth rates down. This assumption shaped countless forecasts about the future of the global population.

And in many wealthy countries, such as South Korea and Italy, very low fertility rates persist. But a growing body of research is challenging the idea that rising prosperity always suppresses fertility.

University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde recently observed that middle-income countries are now experiencing lower total fertility rates than many advanced economies ever have. His latest work shows that Thailand and Colombia each have fertility rates around 1.0 births per woman, which is even lower than rates in well-known low-fertility advanced economies such as Japan, Spain and Italy.

“My conjecture is that by 2060 or so, we might see rich economies as a group with higher [total fertility rates] than emerging economies,” Fernández-Villaverde predicts.

This changing relationship between prosperity and fertility is already apparent in Europe. For many years, wealthier European countries tended to have lower birth rates than poorer ones. That pattern weakened around 2017, and by 2021 it had flipped.

This change fits a broader historical pattern. Before the Industrial Revolution, wealthier families generally had more children. The idea that prosperity leads to smaller families is a modern development. Now, in many advanced economies, that trend is weakening or reversing. The way that prosperity influences fertility is changing yet again. Wealth and family size are no longer pulling in opposite directions.

This shift also calls into question long-standing assumptions about women’s income and fertility. For years, many economists thought that higher salaries discouraged women from having children by raising the opportunity cost of taking time off work. That no longer seems to hold in many countries.

In several high-income nations, rising female earnings are now associated with higher fertility. Studies in Italy and the Netherlands show that couples where both partners earn well are more likely to have children, while low-income couples are the least likely to do so. Similar findings have emerged from Sweden as well. In Norway, too, higher-earning women now tend to have more babies.

This trend is not limited to Europe. In the United States, richer families are also beginning to have more babies than poorer ones, reversing patterns observed in previous decades. A study of seven countries — including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia — found that in every case, higher incomes for both men and women increased the chances of having a child.

This growing body of evidence challenges the assumption that prosperity causes people to have fewer children. 

Still, birth rates are falling across much of the world, with many countries now below replacement level. While this trend raises serious concerns, such as the risk of an aging and less innovative population and widening gaps in public pension solvency, it is heartening that it is not driven by prosperity itself. Wealth does not automatically lead to fewer children, and theories blaming consumerism or rising living standards no longer hold up.

Although the recent shift in the relationship between prosperity and fertility is welcome, it is not yet enough to raise fertility to the replacement rate of around 2.1 children per woman — a challenging threshold to reach.

But the growing number of policymakers around the world concerned about falling fertility can consider many simple, freedom-enhancing reforms that lower barriers to raising a family, including reforms to education, housing and childcare. Still, it’s important to challenge the common assumption that prosperity inevitably leads to lower birth rates: Wealth does not always mean fewer children.

This article was published at The Hill on 6/16/2025.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria | Charity & Aid

1.1 Million Mexicans Lifted Out of Poverty Thanks to Remittances

“During the first nine months of 2025, remittances to Mexico totaled 45,681 million, 5.5% less than the 48,360 million received during the same period in 2024.

Despite this decrease, remittances increased in several states in the central-southern region during the first nine months of the year, notably Chiapas (+1.2%), Oaxaca (+2.0%), Puebla (+1.9%), Guerrero (+4.2%), Veracruz (+0.9%), and Morelos (+1.3%).

1.1 million people in Mexico have been lifted out of multidimensional poverty thanks to remittance transfers. If remittance income is not included in the 2024 measurement, the population living in poverty in Mexico would increase from 38.5 million to 39.6 million people.”

From Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.

Blog Post | Pollution

From Waste to Wealth: the Alchemy of Innovation

Environmental challenges can be transformed into economic opportunities.

Summary: Scientists and engineers are finding ways to turn pollution and waste into valuable resources. From recovering fertilizer from toxic lakes to creating biodegradable packaging from farm residues, innovation is transforming environmental problems into opportunities for growth. By reimagining waste as a resource, we can make the planet cleaner while fueling new industries and jobs.


Every summer, toxic algae blooms turn Lake Erie and other US lakes into a green soup, threatening drinking water for millions. Every year, American farmers burn millions of pounds of grain stalks after harvest. And every day, Americans throw away enough packing peanuts to fill an Olympic swimming pool. What if I told you that each of these waste streams could become valuable resources—and that the solutions are emerging from university laboratories right now?

We stand at a unique moment in history. For the first time, we possess the scientific tools to transform our most pressing environmental challenges into economic opportunities. The numbers tell a compelling story. According to the World Bank’s “What a Waste 2.0” report, global waste is projected to rise by 70 percent, from 2.01 billion tons today to 3.4 billion tons in 2050. Yet, the circular economy, or using waste productively to create wealth, could unlock $4.5 trillion in economic benefits by 2030. The question isn’t whether we can afford to innovate—it’s whether we can afford not to.

Three Breakthrough Innovations from North Dakota

The convergence of nanotechnology, materials science, and biotechnology has created unprecedented possibilities for environmental remediation. In a laboratory at North Dakota State University, my research team is developing three innovations that exemplify this waste-to-wealth transformation:

  1. Calcium peroxide nanoparticles that absorb phosphates from polluted lakes and convert them into sustainable fertilizer
  2. Flax-fiber composites that transform agricultural waste into biodegradable packaging materials
  3. Starch-based foam alternatives that replace petroleum-based packing peanuts with compostable materials

These aren’t pie-in-the-sky concepts. They’re practical solutions that could scale from our Fargo lab benches to global implementation within a decade. Here’s how each one works—and why they matter.

Turning Lake Poison into Farm Food

Over 500 “dead zones” now plague our planet’s bodies of water, with the number doubling every decade since the 1960s. These oxygen-depleted areas, caused primarily by phosphate runoff from agriculture, cost the United States $2.4 billion annually in economic losses. The 2014 Toledo water crisis, which left half a million people without access to drinking water for three days, was just a preview of what may come unless we act.

Here’s where nanotechnology can change the game. At our NDSU lab, we’re developing calcium peroxide nanoparticles—imagine particles 5,000-times smaller than the width of a human hair—that act as molecular sponges for phosphate pollution. When deployed in eutrophic (nutrient-rich) lakes, these nanoparticles serve a dual purpose that borders on alchemy: First, they absorb phosphates from the water with an efficiency 500-times greater than conventional materials; second, they slowly release oxygen over 30 days, breathing life back into suffocating bodies of water.

But here’s the truly exquisite part: Those absorbed phosphates don’t disappear. Our research team harvests them to create sustainable fertilizer. Consider the irony—the very phosphates that are killing our lakes came from fertilizer runoff, and now we’re capturing them to make new fertilizer. It’s the circular economy in its purest form.

The timing couldn’t be more perfect. The global phosphate fertilizer market, currently valued at $72 billion, is facing a sustainability crisis. Morocco controls 70 percent of the world’s phosphate rock reserves, and at current extraction rates, most of these reserves will be depleted within a century. By recovering phosphates from water pollution, we’re not just cleaning lakes, we’re securing agriculture’s future. Our preliminary calculations suggest that phosphate recovery from US agricultural runoff alone could replace 15 percent of imported phosphate fertilizer, saving farmers billions while restoring water quality.

From Farm Waste to Amazon Packages

The second innovation transforms an agricultural nuisance into packaging gold. North Dakota grows 90,000 acres of flax annually, primarily for the valuable oil in its seeds. But after harvest, millions of pounds of stalks are typically burned or buried, a waste of remarkably strong natural fibers that have been used for over 30,000 years for textiles, food, paper, and medicine.

At our NDSU lab, we’re extracting these fibers and mixing them with biodegradable polymer matrices to create packaging materials that rival petroleum-based plastics in performance while completely biodegrading in three to six months. The resulting composite materials achieve tensile strengths of 50–70 megapascals—stronger than many conventional plastics—using 35 percent less energy to produce.

The market is hungry for such solutions. The biodegradable packaging sector is experiencing rapid growth, projected to reach $922 billion by 2034. More important, consumers are voting with their wallets: 82 percent say they’ll pay premiums for sustainable packaging, and 39 percent have already switched brands for better environmental practices. Major corporations aren’t waiting. Dell already uses mushroom-based packaging grown on agricultural waste, while IKEA has committed millions of dollars to eliminate polystyrene entirely.

North Dakota sits on a gold mine of opportunity. The state’s two million acres of various crops produce enormous volumes of agricultural residue. By viewing these stalks, husks, and shells not as waste but as industrial feedstock, North Dakota could become a hub for sustainable packaging materials. A single processing facility could create 200 rural jobs while generating $50 million in annual revenue from materials currently worth nothing.

Replacing Satan’s Snowflakes

The third innovation addresses what some environmentalists refer to as “Satan’s snowflakes”—namely, those infuriating polystyrene packing peanuts that seem to multiply in your garage and never decompose. Americans generate enough polystyrene waste to circle the Earth in a chain of coffee cups every four months. This material persists for 500 to one million years, breaking into microplastics that contaminate our food chain.

In our NDSU lab, we’re developing starch-based foam alternatives using corn, wheat, and potatoes, all crops that North Dakota grows in abundance. These “bio-peanuts” dissolve completely in water, compost within 90 days, and require just 12 percent of the energy needed to produce traditional polystyrene. They even eliminate the static cling that makes unpacking electronics feel like wrestling an electric eel.

The economics are compelling. Companies such as electronics retailer Crutchfield report saving $70,000 to $120,000 annually in freight costs after switching to lighter, bio-based packing materials. With 11 states and 250 cities already banning polystyrene foam, and the European Union implementing strict regulations on single-use plastics, the market for alternatives isn’t only growing, it’s becoming mandatory.

Perhaps the most profound impact is psychological. Every online purchase delivered with biodegradable packing materials sends a message: Modern conveniences can be maintained without mortgaging the environment. While a small victory, such progress is building momentum for larger, more significant changes.

The Scaling Potential: From Lab to Global Impact

The opportunity is enormous: If just 10 percent of US agricultural waste were converted to packaging materials, it would replace 33 million tons of petroleum-based plastics annually. If our phosphate recovery technology were deployed in the 100 most-polluted lakes globally, it could recover enough phosphorus to fertilize five million acres of farmland while restoring recreational value worth $10 billion.

These aren’t distant possibilities—our NDSU innovations are progressing through the typical stages: proof of concept, pilot testing, demonstrations, and commercialization. We’re currently in pilot testing, with plans for field demonstrations next year. Industry partners have expressed strong interest, particularly from agricultural cooperatives seeking value-added opportunities for crop residues.

Innovation Beats Despair: Lessons from Environmental History

Some critics might ask, “Aren’t these solutions just Band-Aids on the gaping wound of industrial civilization?” Such a question, however, misses the profound lesson of environmental history. Every major pollution crisis we’ve faced, from London’s killer smog to acid rain and the ozone hole, seemed insurmountable until human ingenuity proved otherwise.

Consider the track record. Since 1970, the United States has reduced major air pollutants by 78 percent while increasing gross domestic product by 321 percent. The Montreal Protocol has eliminated 99 percent of ozone-depleting substances, saving approximately two million people from skin cancer each year. Acid rain, once predicted to cost $6 billion annually to address, was solved for less than $2 billion per year. These victories weren’t achieved by abandoning modern life but by making modernity cleaner and more efficient.

The same patterns are emerging in clean technology. Solar panel costs have plummeted 90 percent in the past decade. Renewable energy is often among the lowest-cost power sources, especially when comparing marginal generation costs. When accounting for storage or backup needs, however, total system costs can vary by region and grid mix. Battery prices have decreased by 97 percent over the past 30 years. Each follows Wright’s Law—costs decline predictably as production scales. Our NDSU waste-to-resource innovations will follow similar trajectories.

The investment community recognizes this potential. Clean technology attracted $1.8 trillion in investments globally in 2023, surpassing fossil fuel investments for the first time. The bioeconomy, currently valued at $4 trillion, is projected to reach $30 trillion by 2050. These aren’t charitable donations, but rather hard-nosed bets on profitable technologies that happen to benefit the planet.

From Lab Bench to Marketplace

Numerous university spin-offs have traveled the well-worn path from laboratory to marketplace. Companies such as Membrion (ceramic membranes developed at the University of Washington) and Integricote (nanocoatings developed at the University of Houston) demonstrate that academic innovations can achieve commercial success while addressing environmental challenges.

The Optimistic Imperative

The waste crises facing our generation are real and urgent—but so is our capacity to transform them into opportunities for prosperity. The toxic algae choking our lakes could become tomorrow’s sustainable fertilizer. The agricultural waste burning in our fields could become the packaging protecting tomorrow’s e-commerce deliveries. The petroleum-based foams polluting our oceans could be replaced by materials that harmlessly dissolve back into the earth.

This transformation, however, won’t happen automatically. It requires continued investment in research, supportive policies that incentivize innovation over incineration, and entrepreneurs willing to scale laboratory successes into industrial realities. The trajectory is clear: Waste is becoming wealth, pollution is becoming profit, and environmental restoration is becoming economic opportunity.

From my lab bench in Fargo, I see a future in which every environmental challenge sparks a thousand innovative solutions, every waste stream becomes a value stream, and the same human ingenuity that created these problems engineers their solutions. That’s human progress at its finest.

Center for Global Development | Poverty Rates

Latin American Poverty Drops by Nearly Half in 20 Years

“Poverty in the region [of Latin America] has dropped by nearly half over the past 20 years, from 58 percent in 2003 to 30 percent in 2023, equivalent to a decline of 28 percentage points (Figure 5A). Argentina, Chile, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil have experienced the most significant reductions in poverty during this period, with decreases between 31 and 61 percentage points. The trend is downward in all but three countries. In Guatemala and Honduras, poverty has remained roughly constant over the available data period. Venezuela is the only country where poverty has increased overall, from 65 to 71 percent during this period.”

From Center for Global Development.

World Bank | Poverty Rates

Tajikistan’s Remarkable Poverty Reduction over past Decade

“Over the past decade, Tajikistan has achieved a remarkable poverty reduction, with the national poverty rate dropping from 56 percent in 2010 to just below 20 percent in 2024.

During the same period, the share of middle-class households — defined as those living on more than $15 per person a day — quadrupled from 8 to 33 percent, signaling profound improvements in living standards.”

From World Bank.