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Modern Heat and Light Have Transformed Human Life—Don’t Take Them for Granted

Blog Post | Environment & Pollution

Modern Heat and Light Have Transformed Human Life—Don’t Take Them for Granted

Without electricity, winter is a humanitarian emergency.

Summary: Electricity and heat are essential for human survival and well-being, especially in winter. This article explores how far humanity has come in terms of heat and lighting technology, and why these achievements should not be taken for granted.


The recent shooting of two power substations in North Carolina, temporarily leaving tens of thousands of Americans without power, has drawn attention to the susceptibility of U.S. electricity infrastructure to attacks. Such vulnerability is heightened in war. As winter approaches, Russia’s military has increasingly targeted Ukrainian power stations and critical infrastructure. The resulting blackouts have left millions of Ukraine’s people cold and cut off from modern necessities like electric light. The blackouts have also forced many businesses and schools to close, further disrupting the economy, as well as education for the country’s children.

“I’m not afraid of the bombs, but without electricity, water and heating you can’t work or have a normal life,” one Ukrainian refugee told the Wall Street Journal of her decision to stay out of the country.

The sudden, war-induced loss of electricity in parts of Ukraine stands out as a grim exception to the trend of increased electricity access globally and a stark reminder that the modern wonder of electric power should never be taken for granted. Those of us fortunate enough to enjoy steady access to electricity and heat seldom contemplate just how vital to our existence these basic services are.

Ukrainians’ “lack of access to fuel or electricity due to damaged infrastructure could become a matter of life or death if people are unable to heat their homes,” according to Dr. Hans Henri P. Kluge, the World Health Organization’s director for Europe.

Being forced to survive a winter without electricity in the modern age is a humanitarian emergency, a horrific step back toward a past best left behind. Because, lest we forget just how gruesome the premodern age was, all humans once faced wintertime without electricity—even royalty. Accounts from the French court of Versailles in the 17th century tell of a palace “so bitterly cold that the wine as well as water freezes in the glasses at the King’s table.”

When Homo erectus first learned to control fire a million years ago, humanity may have gained the ability to create warmth during winter and light after sunset, but the heat didn’t extend far, and the light was dim and absurdly costly.

From fire to electricity and LEDs, heat and lighting technology have come a long way—further than our ancestors could have imagined. And as free enterprise and exchange have lifted billions of people out of poverty over the last few decades, the long-run trend is that an ever-greater share of humanity can take the modern wonders of abundant heat and light for granted. 

In India, for example, only half of the population had access to electricity in 1993, the earliest year for which the World Bank has data. But that rose to 99 percent of the population by 2020, the most recent year of available data. Here you can watch a video of the powerful moment that a remote Indian village called Rakuru in the Himalayas turned on its first electric lights six years ago. “The people were hugging each other and dancing,” was how Shivani Saklani, an Indian GE employee who helped bring about the village’s electrification, described the scene. “The experience was so powerful it made me cry.” 

Progress is ongoing: in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, electricity access is rising, but is still only enjoyed by less than half of the population. Numerous energy entrepreneurs are hard at work trying to fulfill the need for electricity and spread it to more of the world’s people—people like Dozie Igweilo, whose startup uses solar lamps to help Nigerians through power outages.  

Sometimes, policy restrictions get in the way. For example, in the four years following the Fukushima disaster, there were 1,280 cold-related deaths due to the Japanese government’s ill-considered decision to end nuclear power production. And, of course, the invasion of Ukraine has revealed the folly of many European governments’ meddling with energy markets to ban hydraulic fracturing. Rather than helping the earth, these bans have enabled Russian energy blackmail.

Despite all the progress that humanity has made, today around 940 million people still live without electricity or reliable lighting. Due to Russia’s aggression, many Ukrainians are joining their ranks.

Remarkable photos of Ukraine viewed from space at night before and after the infrastructure attacks reveal the extent of the blackouts. Where there once were twinkling constellations of city lights, there are now vast stretches of darkness. The photos are vaguely reminiscent of the now-famous satellite images of North Korea at night: a field of eerie darkness contrasted with the light of prosperous towns and cities to the south.

The disparity between the images of Ukraine before and after the war, and of the authoritarian hermit kingdom and its free southern neighbor, both speak to a harsh but important truth. They show that progress is not automatic or irreversible. The conveniences of modern life are fragile, dependent on peace for their continued existence, and dependent on freedom to come into being in the first place.

So if you live in a community with abundant electricity, neither being immiserated by an oppressive communist regime nor bombed in a norm-violating war of conquest, take a moment to appreciate your situation. Remember just how life-changing electricity is, as you witness it warming homes and powering the numerous holiday lights (another modern marvel worth contemplating) warding off the winter gloom.

And if you’re interested in doing something to help the people of Ukraine as their lights go out, please consider donating to the fundraiser that HumanProgress.org’s former staffer is running to purchase generators so that Lviv schools might reopen and serve as warm havens for Ukraine’s schoolchildren.

Blog Post | Science & Technology

Mourning, Merriment, and Hazardous History of Holiday Lights

Before electric lights, the holiday season was a hot waxy mess.

Summary: For centuries, people decorated their Christmas trees with candles, creating a festive atmosphere but also risking deadly fires. This article examines the transition to electric Christmas lights, which have become far safer and cheaper over time.


Spectacular twinkling displays are a staple of the holiday season, from elaborately lit homes to drive-through light shows. But electric lights are more than a charming way to ward off the winter gloom; they have also made this time of year considerably safer than in the past. 

The first Christmas lights were candles. The practice of placing lit candles on Christmas trees dates to at least 1660 in Germany. Placing candles in windows may have originated with early American colonists. Whatever their origin, candles placed in windows and on trees became a widespread tradition. By 1856, U.S. President Franklin Pierce brought candlelit Christmas trees to the White House. 

Tragically, candles often proved as deadly as they were pretty. Christmastime conflagrations occurred so regularly that, by 1908, many insurance companies refused to cover fires started by Christmas trees. 

In 1911, the National Fire Protection Association, New York Board of Fire Underwriters, and Newark Fire Department issued a joint warning reading, in part, “Do not permit children to light, or re-light, the candles while parents are not present. They frequently set fire to their clothing instead. The tree itself will burn when the needles have become dry.”  

Christmas candles caused fire, deaths

Old newspapers reveal horrific Christmas candle fires, including a blaze that killed 36 people in Oklahoma in 1925 and a fire that struck a Chicago hospital in 1885. In one 1905 incident, a Kansas City man dressed as Santa Claus caught fire, along with his sack of toys. (In what might be considered a Christmas miracle, he survived). 

A series of innovators sought to make holiday candles safer. In 1867, a fellow named Charles Kirchhof patented a weighted candleholder meant to improve the stability of candles on trees. In 1878, Frederick Artz invented a still superior candleholder that clipped onto tree branches. But the biggest safety improvement came from switching from candles to electricity. 

Three days before Christmas, in 1882, electric holiday lights were born. Just two years after Thomas Edison patented the lightbulb, one of his employees, Edward Hibberd Johnson, realized the invention’s festive potential. He wrapped some small bulbs on a wire around a Christmas tree. The Detroit Post reported on the innovation: 

“There … was a large Christmas tree presenting a most picturesque and uncanny aspect. It was brilliantly lighted with many colored globes about as large as an English walnut … The result was a continuous twinkling of dancing colors, red, white, blue, white, red, blue all evening. I need not tell you that the scintillating evergreen was a pretty sight — one can hardly imagine anything prettier. The ceiling was crossed obliquely with two wires on which hung 28 more of the tiny lights; and all the lights and the fantastic tree itself with its starry fruit were kept going by the slight electric current brought from the main office on a filmy wire.” 

“Electric trees will prove to be far less dangerous than the wax candle parlor trees,” Johnson noted at the time.  

Electric lights were ‘extravagant’

At first, only the rich could afford such electric lights; one 1884 New York Times editorial dubbed them “extravagant.” Less than 10 percent of America had electricity when Christmas lights debuted. But the cost of electricity rapidly plummeted, and 60 percent of the country had access to electricity by the time weatherproof lights came on the market in 1927.  

Fully lighting a Christmas tree with electric bulbs could cost as much as $300 in the early 1900s, the equivalent of around $8,500 today. The first “pre-wired” strings of electric Christmas lights, called “festoons,” launched in 1903 and cost $12 each (almost $400 today). Many people could only afford to rent rather than buy electric holiday lights. 

By 1914, a string of lights cost just $1.75 (about $50 today). Business competition led to even cheaper and safer electric holiday lights sweeping the market in the 1920s and 1930s.  

Electricity can also, of course, cause fires. In 1943, the singer and actor Bing Crosby, famous for holiday hits like White Christmaslost his home to a fire owed to faulty Christmas light wiring. But thanks to continued safety improvements, house fires have been declining in frequency for decades in the United States.   

So, the next time you gaze at some holiday lights, take a moment to appreciate how electricity has transformed the season and saved countless lives.

This article was originally published by RealClearHistory.

Blog Post | Energy & Natural Resources

Light Has Burst Forth in Astonishing Abundance

Every one percent increase in population corresponds to a 79,773 percent increase in global light abundance.

Summary: From fire and candles in the past to LEDs and solar panels in the present, artificial light has been a pivotal factor in human civilization and well-being. This article explores the unprecedented surge in the availability of affordable and reliable light around the world, encouraging readers to acknowledge and celebrate the advancements made despite the challenges that remain.


Economics professor Deirdre McCloskey has said the Great Enrichment from 1800 to the present increased per capita incomes by 3,000 percent. She is being conservative. An index of 26 basic commodities found that abundance increased by 5,762 percent.

Measured in time prices, which are the hours and minutes it takes to earn enough money to buy something, many prices have dropped by 99 percent. A 99 percent decrease means the time it took to earn the money to buy one item will now get you 100, or 9,900 percent more. From 1850 to 2018, the abundance of rye, tea, and rice increased 9,840 percent, 10,552 percent, and 11,049 percent, respectively, for blue-collar workers. Nickel abundance increased 18,046 percent, and sugar increased 22,583 percent.

The one commodity that has exceeded them all in increasing abundance appears to be light. Nobel prize-winning economist William Nordhaus reported that earning enough money to buy one hour of light in 1830 required around three hours of labor. Today with advanced LED technology, one hour of light costs less than 0.16 seconds. This represents a 6,749,900 percent increase in personal light abundance.

Calculating Changes in Global Resources

Calculating the size of a global resource pie can be done by multiplying the resource abundance (how much of a resource one hour of labor will buy) by the population size. Comparing these pies at different points in time will reveal changes in abundance. One can simplify the analysis by indexing personal resource abundance and population to a value of one in the start year.

Let’s look at light abundance. Personal light resources increased from an indexed value of one in 1830 to 67,500 in 2020. Over this same period, the global population increased 550 percent from 1.2 billion to 7.8 billion. Indexing population to a value of one in 1830 would indicate a value of 6.5 in 2020. Multiplying 67,500 by 6.5 would put the 2020 global light resource pie at a value of 438,750. This represents a 43,874,900 percent increase from 1830’s value of one. Light has been increasing at a compound annual growth rate of around 7 percent over the last 190 years. At this rate, light abundance doubles every ten years.

Resource Elasticity of Population

In economics, elasticity compares the percentage change in one variable against the percentage change in another. From 1830 to 2020, the global light resource abundance increased by 43,874,900 percent. During this same period, the population increased by 550 percent. Dividing 43,874,900 by 550 is 79,773. Every one percent increase in population corresponds to a 79,773 percent increase in global light abundance. We have experienced an exponential efflorescence of illumination.

The next time you turn on a light switch, please take a moment to appreciate the free and creative people who toiled to bring us out of the darkness. Compared to the abundant light of our world today, all of our ancestors really did live in the dark ages.

This excerpt from our forthcoming book, The Age of Superabundance, was originally published on Gale Pooley’s Substack.

Blog Post | Adoption of Technology

How the Cost of Light Fell by a Factor of 500,000

Light has turned from something too precious to use into something everyone can afford.

As the BBC recently pointed out, our prehistoric ancestors needed to gather and chop “wood 10 hours a day for six days… [in order to] produce 1,000 lumen hours of light… That is the equivalent of one modern light bulb shining for just 54 minutes, although what you would actually get is many more hours of dim, flickering light instead.” 

Even when better alternatives, such as candles, became available, it was still prohibitively expensive to light the house for the common person. Further, the first candles were produced from animal fat and not from the clean burning paraffin wax we use today, producing a flickering smelly flame. 

It wasn’t until the 18th century that spermaceti candles, which were made from a waxy substance found in the head cavities of sperm whales, and were much less time-consuming to produce, became more readily available. But even then, reading light remained very expensive (not to mention terminal for the whales). George Washington calculated that five hours of reading per night cost him £8 yearly – well over $1,000 in today’s dollars.

The light bulb changed everything. 

By 1900, 60 hours of work could provide 10 days of light. The light bulbs would burn 100 times as bright as a candle, steadily, and inodorously. By 1920, 60 hours of work could already pay for 5 months of stable light. By 1990, that increased to 10 years of light. Today? 52 years. 

And progress has not stopped yet. LED lights continue to become cheaper and cheaper. 

The amount of labor that once bought 54 minutes of light now buys 52 years of light. The cost has fallen by a factor of 500,000 and the quality of that light has transformed from unstable and risky to clean, safe, and controllable. 

Like a myriad of other products we take for granted today, light has turned from something too precious to use into something everyone can afford.