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Light Has Burst Forth in Astonishing Abundance

Blog Post | Energy Consumption

Light Has Burst Forth in Astonishing Abundance

Light abundance has increased by 100,435,912 percent since 1830.

Summary: In just two centuries, humanity has turned light from a rare luxury into one of the most abundant resources on Earth. What once demanded hours of labor now costs a fraction of a second’s work, thanks to relentless innovation and human creativity. From candles to LEDs, the story of light reflects a larger truth: when people are free to invent and exchange ideas, they transform scarcity into abundance and darkness into illumination.


Our book Superabundance (2022) was inspired in part by the work of Nobel Prize–winning economist William Nordhaus, who conducted an extensive analysis on the “time price” of light over the span of human history. He called time prices the true prices. Light can be measured in lumens. Comfortable reading light is around 1,000 lumens. Nordhaus reported that in 1830, earning sufficient money to buy the candles necessary for one hour of light at 1,000 lumens required around three hours of labor. A candle generates around 12 lumens; therefore, one would need 83 candles to generate 1,000 lumens.

Innovation replaced candles with kerosene lamps and then with incandescent lighting and then LED lighting. Today, for 75 cents, one can buy a Cree J Series 5050C E Class LED that generates 228 lumens per watt. By increasing the wattage to 4.4 watts one can, therefore, generate 1,000 lumens of light. Electricity prices are currently around 17 cents per 1,000 watt hours, commonly known as kilowatt hours or kWh. One watt hour costs 0.017 cents; thus, the 4.4 watts to power the Cree LED for one hour would cost a mere 0.0745 cents. The average worker earns $36.53 an hour, or slightly more than a penny per second. Working for around 0.0735 seconds, therefore, the average worker earns enough money to buy 1,000 lumens for one hour.

The light that cost 10,800 seconds in 1830 costs only 0.0735 seconds today. The time price has dropped by 99.99932 percent. For the time it took to earn the money to buy 1,000 lumens for one hour in 1830, workers today earn 146,980 hours of light today. That’s a 14,697,900 percent increase. Light abundance has been increasing around 6.3 percent annually on a compound basis, doubling every 12 years.

Calculating Changes in Global Light Resources

Over the last 195 years (1830-2025), the world’s population rose from 1.2 billion to 8.2 billion—a factor of 6.83, or a 583 percent increase. To measure how humanity’s resource base has changed, we calculate the size of the global resource “pie” by multiplying personal resource abundance by population. That reveals how much “total abundance” exists across humanity at a given moment.

As we already saw, during the 195-year period, personal light abundance rose by a factor of 146,980. Assuming for argument’s sake that everyone in the world enjoys American prices of LEDs and energy, combined with the 6.83-fold increase in population, the global light abundance factor would amount to 1,004,360. In other words, the global light pie has grown by 100,435,912 percent—from an index value of 1 in 1830 to 1,004,360 today.

Light abundance would have grown at a compound annual rate of roughly 7.3 percent for almost two centuries, doubling about every 9.8 years. What was once scarce, flickering, and expensive has become nearly boundless—flowing at the speed of electrons and photons across the planet.

Resource Elasticity of Population

In economics, elasticity compares the percentage change in one variable against the percentage change in another. Between 1830 and 2025, global light resource abundance increased by 100,435,912 percent. During same period, the world’s population increased by 583 percent. Dividing 100,435,912 percent by 583 percent gives us 172,176. Every 1 percent increase in population thus corresponds to a 172,176 percent increase in global light abundance.

Let There Be More Light

We have witnessed an exponential efflorescence of light—an illumination not merely of our cities but of the human spirit itself. More people with light has meant more minds, more ideas, and more ventures into the unknown. When free to imagine and innovate, humans transform scarcity into abundance—and ignorance into insight. Over the past two centuries, we have converted the darkness of want into the radiance of wealth, beginning with light itself. From the barbarous glow of whale oil to the humble candle, and from the flicker of gas and kerosene to the steady blaze of electricity and the brilliance of silicon, each technological leap has kindled new horizons of discovery. Every advance has multiplied the possibilities for the next. The ultimate source of growth is not material—it’s the human mind set free.

The next time you turn on a light switch, please take a moment to appreciate the great work of free and creative people toiling to bring us out of the darkness. Compared to the abundant light of today’s world, our ancestors really did live in the “dark ages.”

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

Blog Post | Adoption of Technology

Air Conditioning Is Not a Luxury, It Is a Necessity

European regulators have it backward.

Summary: Air conditioning is not a luxury but a life-saving technology that has dramatically reduced heat-related deaths. Yet as heat waves kill tens of thousands of Europeans each year, many governments across the continent continue to discourage AC through permits, noise ordinances, and sometimes outright bans. Modern cooling systems are increasingly efficient, and fears about their health effects are largely unfounded. Treating air conditioning as an unnecessary indulgence risks sacrificing lives to outdated assumptions.


A brutal heat wave in Europe has caused a surge in deaths across the continent as temperatures topped 100 degrees in recent weeks. In France, authorities reported at least 2,000 additional deaths in a single week. Germany has reported more than 5,000 excess deaths this year.

But even as mortality spikes, Europeans continue to resist the one technology that could save their lives: air conditioning.

Air conditioning is one of modern civilization’s most important yet underappreciated inventions. One study from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that the spread of air conditioning in the United States led to a roughly 75 percent decline in heat-related deaths during the 20th century. But policymakers in Europe have discouraged this technology through taxes, regulations and a stubborn refusal to admit its benefits.

The consequences have been tragic. Heat waves kill more than 175,000 Europeans every year, according to the World Health Organization. Eighty percent of the continent’s population does not have AC. In the United States, almost 90 percent does.

The rules limiting AC use in Europe come in many forms. Heritage permit requirements imposed by countries such as Austria, Germany and Hungary, which were originally created to protect historic buildings, have delayed AC installations even in non-historic ones. Several countries require AC installation to be approved by the equivalent of a homeowners association or impose noise ordinances that increase compliance costs and paperwork.

In Geneva, air conditioning requires a permit, and residents must show they need one — usually by presenting a medical certificate. Slovakia demands periodic AC inspections that create a perpetual compliance burden. Local planning councils in Britain regularly reject AC installation requests, citing a need to limit noise and preserve community aesthetics.

Among the minority of Europeans fortunate enough to enjoy air conditioning, some are being forced to give it up. In Britain, where only about 3 percent of homes have air conditioning, laws restricting “active cooling” technology have forced some homeowners to remove their AC systems.

Though localities cite many reasons for opposing air conditioning installation, Europe’s broader war on AC is largely due to the belief that this technology is an energy-guzzling and wasteful luxury.

In 2021, Emmanuelle Wargon, who is now the president of the French Energy Regulatory Commission, said cooling systems present “a significant problem in terms of energy consumption.” During a heat wave in 2022, María Isabel Ruiz, a Spanish civil servant, told a European news outlet she was “in favor of saving energy and that this requires sacrifices” even as she criticized regulations that at one point prohibited thermostats from being set below 80 degrees.

But as European countries fret over energy consumption, modern AC systems have become increasingly energy efficient. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that even as the share of U.S. homes with AC has increased, average household energy use has declined, partly thanks to “improved efficiencies of … cooling equipment.”

Europe’s AC phobia has also fueled an irrational health panic. During a heat wave in 2022, one Frenchwoman said AC “makes you sick, and it gives you a headache.” Left-wing French politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon has claimed air conditioning “destroys your sinuses.”

European mediaconsumer groups and even the French government have said that cooling a room to more than 15 degrees below the outdoor temperature can trigger “thermal shock.” This condition, they say, causes nausea, fainting or even respiratory arrest. This ailment is mysteriously absent from the United States, where indoor temperatures are often kept at around 75 degrees even when it’s 100 degrees outside.

Opponents of AC forget history at their peril. The Book of Judith (probably written between 150 and 100 B.C.) contains an early description of someone dying of heatstroke. The extreme European heat wave of 1540 was so severe that some religious figures, including Martin Luther, believed that it presaged the end times.

Relief from boiling summers remained elusive in the early modern era. The 18th-century English physician George Motherby noted that “exposure to a hot sun often produced an inflammation that was speedily fatal.” He recommended treatment with history’s favorite quack cure-all: bloodletting.

“Bleed as freely as the strength will admit,” he wrote.

Thankfully, modern understanding has advanced, and not just in medicine. Humanity now knows how to cool buildings with technology and that the best way to treat heatstroke is rapid cooling, not bloodletting.

AC opponents like to imagine they are leading humanity toward a wiser, more sustainable future. But forgoing air conditioning is a refusal to move on from a lethally hot past.

This article was originally published in The Washington Post on 7/14/2026.

Rockefeller University | Scientific Research

First Complete Zebra Finch Genome Reveals Hidden Genes

“The zebra finch is one of the best-studied songbirds, and a model for understanding the biology of vocal learning. Now, researchers have produced the first complete genome assembly of the species, revealing thousands of previously hidden genes and chromosome structures.

It is the first songbird genome to capture every chromosome from end to end while distinguishing the DNA inherited from each parent, making it the most complete and accurate bird genome assembled to date. Part of a package of 10 papers being published simultaneously in Cell and Cell Genomics, this study, which appears in Cell, reveals 2,710 previously unknown genes, shows that birds and mammals share an organized centromere architecture, and resolves tiny chromosomes that provide clues to the evolution of vertebrates and vocal learning.”

From Rockefeller University.

New Scientist | Scientific Research

AI Helps Disprove 87-Year-Old Mathematical Conjecture

“A mathematician has cracked an 87-year-old conundrum with the help of AI and announced the solution unceremoniously in a tweet. The finding is the most difficult mathematical problem yet solved by AI, say experts.

Levent Alpöge at Harvard University wrote on X on 19 July that the Jacobian conjecture – which academics have spent decades trying to prove was true – is actually false, giving a tiny, 216-character counterexample as proof…

The Jacobian conjecture – which suggests that a certain type of mathematical function would also work in reverse – was formally set out by Ott-Heinrich Keller in 1939. It was also on an influential list of 18 fiendishly difficult problems for mathematicians to tackle in the 21st century drawn up by Stephen Smale in 1998…

Abhishek Saha at Queen Mary University of London says AI’s recent advances in mathematics, such as the OpenAI model that recently cracked a decades-old conjecture by Paul Erdős, have been surprising, but this latest finding has stepped things up significantly.

'Probably this is the biggest conjecture that AI has played a significant role [in proving or disproving] so far in mathematics,' he says. 'This is a pretty big deal. AI has [made] remarkable progress in the last year.'

The single line of mathematics posted by Alpöge was simple to verify and many mathematicians have already done so, says Saha. Now the big question is how it was done.”

From New Scientist.

South China Morning Post | Adoption of Technology

Global Humanoid Robot Shipments Surge

“Shanghai-based Agibot captured 44 per cent of the global market after shipping roughly 8,400 humanoid robots from January to June, San Francisco-based research firm Smart Analytics Global (SAG) said in a report published on Sunday…

Hangzhou-based Unitree fell to second place, shipping about 5,900 units to secure 31 per cent of the global market, SAG reported. Unlike AgiBot’s multi-line push, Unitree’s humanoid shipments remained concentrated in its flagship G1 model, with education, research and performance deployments making up a substantial share…

The rivalry between the two robotics giants has unfolded against a backdrop of rapid, China-led market expansion. Overall global humanoid shipments jumped 272 per cent year on year to about 19,100 units in the first half, with Chinese manufacturers supplying over 97 per cent of total global shipments…

Looking ahead, SAG projects full-year global shipments to approach 60,000 units, nearly tripling year on year.”

From South China Morning Post.