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It’s Time to Shelf the Myths About Food Prices

Blog Post | Food Prices

It’s Time to Shelf the Myths About Food Prices

Measure the time needed to earn the money to pay for a meal. That’s what matters.

Summary: Despite widespread complaints about soaring grocery bills, Americans are spending far less of their working time to put food on the table than earlier generations did. Measured in time prices, long-term trends show food has grown more abundant thanks to rising wages. While household budgets face real pressures elsewhere, the idea of an unprecedented food-affordability crisis simply isn’t supported by the evidence.


With one big family-gathering meal out of the way and more soon to come (Christmas? New Year’s? Super Bowl?), let’s talk about food prices and the “affordability crisis” much in the news and in politicians’ rhetoric. Judging from polls, many Americans believe that the grocery prices are slipping out of reach. Inflation since 2021 left a mark on household budgets, but step back from the checkout line and look at the longer record. Measured the way people experience prices — through hours of work — food at home has become more affordable, not less.

Start with the relationship that matters: wages versus prices. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data on blue-collar pay and the consumer price index for “Food at Home,” we can compare wage growth with grocery inflation over multiple time horizons. Over the past year, blue-collar wages rose 3.8 percent while supermarket prices rose 2.7 percent. Over the past two years, wages increased 8.1 percent compared with a 4 percent rise for food. Over 10 years, wages rose 49.5 percent, prices 29.7 percent. Over 30 years, wages climbed 169 percent, prices 111 percent. Over 50 years, wages rose 558 percent, food prices 403 percent.

Put differently, wages grew about 40 percent faster than food prices over the past year, with often higher jumps in the other annual comparisons. The longer the period, the larger the cumulative advantage for workers.

The most useful way to express this advantage, as we argued in our 2022 book “Superabundance,” is not in dollars but in “time prices.” Americans buy goods with money, but pay for them with time. To calculate a time price, divide the dollar price of a good by the hourly wage. The result is the number of minutes a worker must spend on the job to earn that good.

Applying this measure to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey of the ingredients for a Thanksgiving meal serving 10 people — or any other similar holiday feast or special occasion, for that matter — reveals fascinating information about basic “affordability.”

In dollar terms, the Farm Bureau basket rose from $28.74 in 1986 to $55.18 in 2025, a 92 percent increase; over the same period, the blue-collar hourly wage rose from $8.92 to $31.33, a gain of 251 percent. Once you convert those figures into time prices, an even more reassuring picture emerges. In 1986, a blue-collar worker had to work 3.22 hours to buy that dinner for 10. By 2025, the same meal required 1.76 hours. The time price fell 45.3 percent. For the time increment required to buy that meal in 1986, a worker can now buy 1.83 of them — nearly doubling what the labor will buy. Food abundance for that worker rose 83 percent.

This reflects a broader pattern. U.S. consumers spent about 17 percent of disposable personal income on food in 1960; by 2019, that share had fallen to 9.5 percent, driven largely by more affordable food at home. Even after the inflation spike in recent years, Americans last year devoted 10.4 percent of disposable income to food, still roughly half the share common in the mid-20th century and lower than in most other countries. That is a textbook case of Engel’s law: As incomes rise, the share of income spent on food declines.

What produced these gains is not mysterious. Better seeds, fertilizers, machinery, transport, refrigeration, packaging, inventory management and data systems all raise agricultural productivity. Competition in retailing and global trade further push producers to deliver more nutrition for each hour of work on the demand side. The result shows up not only in fuller supermarket shelves but in long-run trends in wages, prices and time prices.

None of that denies the pressure that higher rents, insurance premiums or interest rates place on families. Nor does it imply that every household shares equally in the gains. Time prices capture the average worker, not the person between jobs or outside the labor force. Policy debates about safety nets, housing supply or tax burdens remain important.

But when political candidates and commentators claim that food has never been less affordable, the evidence does not support them. In terms of hours of work, the typical American must sacrifice less time than earlier generations to put groceries on the table. That’s worth celebrating in the holiday season.

This article was originally published in the Washington Post on 12/2/2025.

Blog Post | Food Production

The System That Feeds Us | Podcast Highlights

Adam Omary interviews Jan Dutkiewicz about the triumphs and tradeoffs of the industrial food system.

Listen to the podcast or read the full transcript here.

I’m pleased to be joined today by Jan Dutkiewicz, an assistant professor of Political Science at the Pratt Institute and co-author of Feed the People: Why Industrial Food Is Good and How We Can Make It Even Better.

You open the book with this food paradox. What is the paradox?

The paradox is that the American food system has never been better, and it’s never been worse.

The American food system is incredibly abundant. It produces delicious and potentially very nutritious foods at scale within a relatively strong regulatory state. But there are problems. The way we produce food has large environmental externalities, it’s not always great for labor, and it’s not always optimally distributed.

The point of the book is to see how we can address those externalities while leaning into the things about our food system that work.

You got on our radar through your article in The Free Press“In Defense of Processed Foods.”

Processed foods have been a subject of major controversy recently, particularly with our health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and the broader Make America Healthy Again movement. But processed foods, you argue, aren’t the evil that they’re made out to be.

The fact that foods are processed doesn’t tell us much about them. It doesn’t tell us what’s been processed. It doesn’t tell us how it’s been processed. It tells us nothing about nutrition. So, the fact that food processing has become a synonym for unhealthfulness has created a lot of confusion.

One thing I really want people to take away from the book is that the category of “ultra-processed foods” is super new. It comes from a Brazilian public health schema that emerged in the late 2000s called Nova, which is just the Portuguese word for “new.” Basically, these public health researchers wanted to create an epidemiological tool to assess the average diet quality of a given population to correlate health outcomes with dietary patterns.

The way they decided to do that was to create four categories of food. Unprocessed foods are Nova 1. Basic household ingredients like salt, sugar, honey, and oil are Nova 2. Nova 3 are foods that you could create in your kitchen by combining ingredients from 1 and 2, such as pasta, tinned marinara sauce, and what have you. And then you get this category called Nova 4, or ultra-processed foods, which consists of anything that you can’t make in your kitchen, such as foods that use industrial processes to do things like extract or isolate parts of food. They then decided that ultra-processed foods were a primary driver of morbidity, which is true if you conflate all ultra-processed foods with junk food. But that category also includes things like plant-based burgers, baby formula, highly processed vegetables and fruits, and protein shakes. So, the category is really not fit for purpose. We should be focused on the nutrient quality of individual foods, not on how much they have been processed.

Historically, food processing has actually massively improved nutrition. The ability to isolate vitamins and put them into foods allowed us to address malnutrition problems that once affected huge populations. In the early 1900s, something like 70 percent of all children in New York City public schools suffered from rickets, which is a vitamin D deficiency. When the United States drafted for World War I, as many as 30 percent of all drafted men were rejected from service because of physical unfitness, in part due to malnutrition. Pellagra, which is caused by vitamin B3 deficiency, killed hundreds of thousands of people in the South. So early food science and processing—adding iodine to salt, enriching bread, pasteurizing and enriching milk—saved countless lives.

Today, we look back to the past with rose-tinted glasses and say things like “Well, I don’t necessarily want the packaged product. I want things that come from a real farm, from the soil.” In reality, when food production was scattered, small-scale, and poorly regulated, before modern science, transportation technology, and processing, nutrition outcomes for the average American were much worse.

Across the 20th century, there were all of these massive developments. You mentioned improvements in food safety. There have also been large improvements in raw agricultural output. What’s the rough timeline of these developments?

As we enter the 20th century, you’ve got the birth of the industrialization of food processing and food transport with the introduction of long-distance and refrigerated rail, and the centralization of storage in places like Chicago. Following that, you’ve got the rise of superior petrochemical-based fertilizers, superior pesticides and herbicides, and better irrigation technologies. Then, we had the birth of modern plant science. At first, this consists of very meticulous crossbreeding. The famous example is Norman Borlaug’s development of dwarf wheat, which was a more robust and higher-yielding variety of wheat designed to benefit from the industrial systems I just described: fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides, and high levels of irrigation. From there, we become more proficient at crossbreeding plants and eventually genetically modifying them to achieve particular ends.

Thanks to all this innovation, we’ve seen tremendous increases in yields per acre for staple crops. For the first time in human history, we produce more calories and protein than the average person needs, which is an incredible achievement. Many civilizations before ours have been brought down by a few bad harvests. Now, we have a food system that is relatively robust. There can be shocks, but the shocks don’t short-circuit the entire system.

The COVID pandemic was a good example of that.

Exactly. Other than in a few key industries—for instance, meat production, because meat processing is so labor-intensive—global food production was not seriously disrupted.

Of course, there are still areas in the world that face food insecurity. How much of the excess calories is concentrated, say, in wealthy countries like the United States, where we might see a lot of food waste?

Food waste is very tricky. The largest share of food waste is household food waste; people throwing out food that’s going bad or that they no longer want. Addressing household food waste at the policy level is very difficult. I will say, though, that if you’re thinking about food waste in the sense of poor use of calories and protein within the food system, the elephant in the room is meat production. The average animal that we eat will consume far more calories and protein over its lifetime than it actually yields.

There’s an interesting tension between two concepts you introduce in the book: the meat austerity view you just articulated, and what you call democratic hedonism, or pursuing food because it is pleasurable.

Many people might be willing to pay more and tolerate the waste because meat is tasty.

This is a fundamental question. So much food discourse shies away from the basic pleasures people get from eating. The Michael Pollans and Wendell Berrys of the world basically say that if you enjoy an industrial diet, you’re suffering from false food consciousness, and you would be far happier eating heirloom tomatoes from the farmer’s market. Well, that’s an empirical question, and I think lots of people genuinely prefer burgers and Doritos.

People who make arguments for veganism from an ethical standpoint will say, well, the pleasure you get from meat should not outweigh the suffering of animals. But even if you buy that argument—and I personally buy that argument—it hasn’t done a lot to minimize meat consumption.

We think that a central principle of making a better food system is providing people with food that they enjoy, and that reforms to the food system should maintain access to that pleasure even as we address negative externalities. We spend a chapter directly focusing on the meat question. All peer-reviewed research points to the fact that people in high-consuming countries like the United States need to eat less meat if we’re to have a more sustainable food system. How do you do that? Well, you can tell people to eat less meat, but I think that giving alternative proteins another chance or long-term investment in cellular agriculture could potentially achieve that goal while preserving the pleasure people get from food.

Throughout your book, I kept coming back to these interesting psychological issues at play with how we approach food.

There’s been a lot of discussion about evolutionary mismatch, particularly when it comes to the obesity crisis. We have an innate taste for high-fat, high-sugar foods that were rare in our ancestral environments, and now, when they’re hyper-plentiful, it’s easy to go overboard. You don’t usually see the same evolutionary logic applied to meat. It makes sense that ancestrally, even for hunter-gatherers, meat would be relatively rarer and account for, in most societies, only a minority of total calories.

I think that’s absolutely right. Part of our abundant food system is that there’s an abundance of things that we probably should eat less of. There are some well-tested policies, such as sugar taxes, that could marginally increase the cost of things we know are bad for us. We can try to steer diets to be healthier or more resource-efficient.

There’s another elephant in the room, which is that, in the United States, unhealthy foods are often subsidized indirectly through subsidies and SNAP benefits.

In the United States, unlike in Europe, farmers don’t get direct cash handouts. Subsidies are mostly indirect in the form of things like crop insurance. The government supports cheaper crop insurance, especially crops that can be produced at large scale, like wheat, corn, and soy. I think it would be a good idea to get rid of subsidies for any food that isn’t used for human consumption. If something gets burned for ethanol or ground down for animal feed, it shouldn’t be subsidized because it doesn’t advance nutrition or lead to more efficient land use. I also think that, to the extent that there are farm-level subsidies, they should apply to any crop for human consumption, including crops grown in smaller quantities.

We also need to think about subsidies that send signals to producers. When it comes to government spending, those come from SNAP and school lunches.

School lunches are a much-maligned part of the American foodscape, but in the wake of the Obama administration, school lunches have actually become relatively healthy. What gets reimbursed by school lunches is an incentive to producers, and under the new guidelines, a lot of that is actually fruits and veggies, which is great.

SNAP has been attacked because it doesn’t restrict what you can spend money on. Somewhere around 10 percent of SNAP money gets used for soda. The argument in favor of doing away with soda from SNAP is that the government is basically subsidizing the Coca-Cola Corporation and incentivizing poor nutritional outcomes. On the other side, food security activists will say that the point of SNAP is to address food insecurity by stretching household budgets, and if you remove soda from SNAP, people receiving SNAP will probably still buy soda, they’ll just use the scarce funds that SNAP is meant to protect. That’s an empirical question that should be tested.

How would you say the USDA is currently performing?

I am reticent to talk about what’s happening because it’s in such flux. Earlier, we would have said, well, surely they’re going to crack down on glyphosate. Instead, they’re supporting glyphosate production. It’s very mercurial.

I will say that a big part of public health related to the food system isn’t the content of what people eat, but the regulation of food production. A lot of that is being hacked away. Most recently, there was a really good piece in Vox by Kenny Torella about the push to simultaneously increase line speeds at chicken slaughterhouses and also reduce oversight for things like products tainted with salmonella.

When it comes to the new nutritional guidelines, I think it’s more show than substantive difference, other than the foregrounding of red meat and protein. If you look at the rest of those guidelines, they’re still saying Americans should eat more fruit, veggies, and whole grains.

Occasionally, you see a high-profile case of a contaminated ingredient in a large production chain. Maybe it’s contrarian, but when I see that kind of news, I feel pleasantly surprised. Every single day, we’re feeding millions of people across the whole country, and only rarely, maybe once a year or less, do we see high-profile incidents of something going wrong.

Absolutely. The fact that a tainted food scandal makes the news shows you how rare it is. And again, it’s because the industrial principles we have in our food system create food that is remarkably safe.

It shocks me sometimes the extent to which people critique the modern food system when you can go to the average supermarket and get a bounty of food for a relatively low price and not worry about whether or not it will make you sick.

It’s valid to critique the environmental impact of food production and to seek to reduce it. It’s valid to try to address remaining food insecurity. I just think that once we identify those problems, we have to think about ways to address them at scale. In much American food writing, even people who identify the problems correctly point towards these anachronistic, non-scalable solutions. So rather than saying, for instance, that addressing food insecurity just means more SNAP benefits or better school lunches, they’ll start talking about how every school lunch needs to contain regeneratively fed beef.

Similarly with individual diets, there’s this obsession with bodily purity and supplements. A few years ago, it was gluten. Now there’s the question of protein and processing. And these things shift with the tides. What I find unfortunate is that these neuroses tend to push people away from fantastic technological innovations. We see this in the complete reticence to eat genetically modified organisms, even though many genetically modified organisms are very beneficial technologies.

The rainbow papaya in Hawaii was genetically modified to protect it from the ringspot virus, which threatened the state’s entire crop of papayas. All the genetic modification does is make it possible to grow papaya in Hawaii. That papaya is delicious and healthy. Arctic apples from Washington state have been genetically modified to not oxidize as quickly, which reduces food waste and keeps them crunchy and looking good after they’ve been sliced up.

You also see this with critiques of plant-based meats like Impossible Burgers. People will panic about their ingredient lists, completely missing the fact that all this processing is pretty benign, and that peer-reviewed research shows that a soy-based Impossible Burger is actually heart-healthier than a red meat burger. So, a lot of this has to do with scaremongering, which takes advantage of both relatively low levels of scientific literacy and this idea that food should be pure and come from the land.

There’s also an argument that in the effort to make produce bigger and higher yielding, the nutrient density has gone down. How do we think about that tradeoff?

We should talk about that on a product-by-product basis. I don’t think we see that tradeoff in staple crops. The wheat we get, if we eat it as whole wheat, is super nutritious. We do see some minor variation in the quality of nutrients between small-scale and large-scale production of produce. Many people will also say they prefer the taste of the farmer’s market tomato to the hothouse tomato at Trader Joe’s.

I have nothing against people going to the farmer’s market, but we can’t pretend that these perceived losses of flavor or a tiny bit of nutrition outweigh the fact that it’s only large-scale industrial production that makes produce, meat, and staple crops widely available at any time of year.

The Human Progress Podcast | Ep. 79

Jan Dutkiewicz: The System That Feeds Us

Jan Dutkiewicz joins Adam Omary to discuss the triumphs and tradeoffs of the industrial food system.

Blog Post | Food Prices

Time Pricing Big Macs Around the World

Even if a Big Mac is more expensive in money, it can be less expensive in time.

Summary: Big Mac prices across countries can be better understood by measuring them in terms of time rather than money—specifically, how long people must work to afford one. Comparing time prices reveals meaningful differences in wages and productivity that aren’t obvious from currency values alone.


McDonald’s operates in over 100 countries worldwide. Since 1986, The Economist magazine has published the Big Mac Index, built on the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP)—the idea that exchange rates should equalize the price of an identical basket of goods across countries. The following shows the dollar price of a Big Mac in each country, sorted by price:

But we can go one step further.

Instead of comparing currencies, we can compare time.

We start with the nominal price of a Big Mac in each country, converted to U.S. dollars, and then compare it to average hourly earnings. Since average hourly earnings data are not available for all countries, GDP per capita divided by annual hours worked serves as a reasonable proxy for relative wages between countries.

This transforms the question from “What does it cost?” to “How long do you have to work to get it?” A Big Mac can be more expensive in money but less expensive in time, depending on where you live.

A Big Mac in Taiwan costs only $2.38, compared to $7.99 in Switzerland, but after adjusting for hourly earnings, the time prices are very similar. In Pakistan, a Big Mac costs $3.77, but hourly earnings are $0.86, putting the time price at 4.4 hours. In Denmark, the price is $5.49, but hourly earnings are $57.60, so the time price is under six minutes. For the time it takes a worker in Pakistan to earn enough to buy one Big Mac, workers in Denmark can buy more than 46.

The Big Mac doesn’t just measure currencies; it measures the spread of knowledge.

What looks like inequality in dollars is often a difference in productivity, learning, and institutional capacity. The real divide is not between rich countries and poor countries—it is between places where knowledge compounds and places where it is constrained.

When a sandwich falls from four hours of work to four minutes, something profound has happened—not to the burger, but to the growth and sharing of knowledge.

The story of abundance is not written in dollars. It is written in time.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

Phys.org | Agriculture

Novel Wheat Hybrids Increase Fungal Disease Resistance

“A new experimental study has identified a novel genetic locus in a common agricultural weed, Elymus repens, that provides significant resistance to the destructive fungal disease Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) and has now been successfully transferred into wheat to produce FHB resistant hybrids…

Dr. Yinghui Li and Houyang Kang’s research team’s new study, published in the Journal of Experimental Botany, outlines how they successfully hybridized E. repens and cultivated wheat to transfer FHB-resistant genes from E. repens into the wheat.

When testing for the presence of FHB from deliberately infected plants, hybrid genotypes containing the resistance genes, labeled as 1StL, showed a 69% reduction in diseased plant spikelets under greenhouse conditions compared to the control wheat, and a 60% reduction under field conditions.”

From Phys.org.