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How Prosperity Democratized Global Tourism

Blog Post | Air Transport

How Prosperity Democratized Global Tourism

As in so many areas, a luxury that was once reserved for a tiny sliver of society is now available to an ever-increasing number of people.

An airplane taking off on a runway

In a January 4 article in The Telegraph, Anne Hanley reminisced about her recent trip to Venice. “Venice’s inhabitants were outnumbered by visitors,” she observed. “Around 54,000 under-pressure locals shared their city with just over 62,000 incomers … [and] that, for La Serenissima, is a ‘quiet’ day,” she continued. The city, she concluded, is being “killed” by tourism and will not be saved by new taxes levied on visitors.

As disposable incomes in previously underdeveloped countries increase and transport costs decline, global tourism will continue to expand. Overcrowding in major tourist spots, like Venice, can be unpleasant. I know. I have seen and experienced it firsthand. But, democratisation of travel has an upside. Millions of people are getting the opportunity to see the world for the first time and that is something worth celebrating.

As with so much else in the past, travelling was difficult and often dangerous.

Roads, where they existed, were rutted. Sailing was hazardous. Highwaymen and pirates were ubiquitous. Moreover, a great many people were not free to travel. Serfs and slaves could not journey without their masters’ permission. Similarly, women were discouraged from travelling unaccompanied. Most people could not afford to buy or rent a horse and had to walk long distances. Travel was also limited to daylight hours, meaning the window of opportunity was much smaller, especially in winter.  And when on their journey, travellers were often preyed upon by unscrupulous innkeepers.

That said, a small percentage of the population did get to travel – for trade, on pilgrimages, and into war.

Travel for pleasure or out of curiosity is a relatively modern phenomenon. It was popularised, at least in the European context, by wealthy young noblemen who, beginning in the 17th century, started to undertake “The Grand Tour” of European cities, including Paris, Venice, Florence and Rome, to take in the ancient monuments and works of art. These educational rites of passage were expensive and time-consuming. Consequently, they were restricted to rich “gentlemen of leisure.”

The cost and convenience of travel dramatically improved with the advent of the steam engine. In the 19th century, trains enabled unprecedented numbers of people to travel within countries, while steamships sped up international travel. Early steamships cut the sailing time from London to New York from about six weeks to about 15 days. By the middle of the 20th century, ocean liners like the SS United States could make the trip in less than four days. Today, an aeroplane can fly between the two cities in 8 hours. Commercial air travel took off between the world wars, but flying remained expensive for decades to come. In 1955, for example, a one-way ticket from London to New York cost over $2,737 in today’s money. Economy class didn’t exist, so only the very rich got to fly. Today, it is possible to get from New York to London for as little as $200.

The quality of travel has changed as well. In his 1998 book, Isaiah Berlin: A Life, Michael Ignatieff notes that in the spring of 1944, the British philosopher “found himself on an interminable transatlantic flight [from Washington, D.C.] to London. In those days the cabins were not pressurised and travellers had to spend the long hours in the dark, breathing through an oxygen tube. Unable to sleep – for fear that the tube would slip out of his mouth – Isaiah remained awake throughout the night in a dark, cold, droning aircraft, with nothing to else to do but think.” What Berlin lost in discomfort, the world gained in philosophy.

Today, those of us stuck at the back of planes often bemoan the discomfort of long-haul flying. But, compared to mid-20th century air travel, flights today are positively blissful. Unsurprisingly, the numbers of international passengers keep rising.

According to The World Tourism Organisation, 524 million people got to travel to a foreign country in 1995. That number grew to 1.245 billion in 2016, a 138 per cent increase. Over the same time period, the share of global travel undertaken by residents of high income countries declined from 72 to 60 per cent. The share of travellers from upper middle income countries rose from 8.5 to 27 per cent. Residents of lower middle income countries increased their share of global travel from 2.5 percent to 11 percent. As in so many areas of modern capitalism, a luxury that was once reserved for a tiny sliver of society is now available to an ever-increasing number of people throughout the world.

This first appeared in CapX.

Blog Post | Air Transport

Around the World in Forty-Eight Hours: The Evolution of Human Flight

In 1872, the average American couldn’t have hoped to travel around the world at all, let alone accomplish the task in less than three months.

Summary: Human flight has evolved from a dream to a reality in less than two centuries. This article traces the history of aviation, from the first balloon flights to the cutting-edge innovations of more recent times. It also analyzes how flying has reshaped the world, enabling quicker and cheaper travel for international cross-cultural exchange.


When French science fiction writer Jules Verne wrote his novel Around the World in Eighty Days, he imagined a wealthy traveler rushing to circumnavigate the globe in under three months. Around the World in Eighty Days was published in 1872, when the primary forms of international travel were trains, steamships, and hot-air balloons. Verne’s protagonist spent £19,000 on his journey – over $2 million in 2021 – and barely made it back to London in the eighty days required to win the wager he made with his friends. Today, the same amount of money could send you around the world more than 1000-fold, each time in less than 48 hours.

How did humanity go from Verne’s Around the World in Eighty Days to an era in which almost anyone can circle the Earth in less than two days?

This leap forward is primarily due to advancements in air travel and a worldwide increase in average income. Since the Wright Brothers’ 1903 flight in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, air travel has become exponentially safer, faster, and cheaper. In 1914, it might have taken seven days to cross the Atlantic from London to New York on a steamship. In 2021, it takes just seven hours on a jet liner.

In the early decades of the 20th century, aircraft were often developed for military, rather than civilian, use. In the First World War, militaries used airplanes to spy on enemy positions. In the 1940s, aircraft carriers helped propel the Allies to victories in the Mediterranean and Pacific theaters. But after half a century of government-led innovation, air travel remained overpriced and inefficient for the average American.

When commercial flights became available to the public in the late 1950s, air travel was still expensive – so expensive that most people couldn’t afford to fly. Business Insider magazine reports that in 1960, a flight from New York to London cost $300, the equivalent of $2600 today. “In 1974,” documents The Atlantic magazine, “it was illegal for an airline to charge less than [$1635] in [2021] inflation-adjusted dollars for a flight between New York City and Los Angeles.” Yet by 2021, even though the cost of fuel has risen drastically in both real and nominal terms, the price of flying has fallen substantially. In the United States, this market miracle is mainly due to one factor: the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act.

From the advent of U.S. commercial flight, airline routes and prices were determined by regulators, creating inefficiency and stifling competition. Then, in 1978, the Carter administration deregulated air travel, forcing airlines to compete over the same routes. Ticket prices dropped almost immediately. The average U.S. airfare in 1979 (equivalent to over $2300 in 2021) fell by 25 percent in five years and has continued to decline ever since. As airfares became affordable, the number of passengers swelled, boosting ticket sales and encouraging investment in new routes and technologies. This investment led to further growth in a virtuous cycle that has made flying far more convenient and affordable.

In 1872, the average American couldn’t have hoped to travel around the world at all, let alone accomplish the task in less than three months. In 2021, almost anyone can complete the journey in less than 48 hours. According to the OECD, the average American earns almost $50,000 in disposable income each year – enough to take them around the world 28 times. A flight from New York to London costs roughly $295; from London to Tokyo it costs $613; from Tokyo to New York it costs $866, for a total of $1774 to circumnavigate the Earth. Modern air travel is one of the great successes of deregulation, innovation, and human progress.

Blog Post | Adoption of Technology

What Flying in the Sixties Was Really Like

It wasn't the "golden age" of air travel as some imagine

While many people have the impression that the Sixties were the “golden age” of air travel, where everyone still got a first class treatment, the actual experience on the first flights was terrible: 

Both the smokers’ and non-smokers’ cabins were filled with cigarette smog, so you would get off and all your clothes would smell like an ashtray. 

It was also much scarier to fly. Planes had to gain as much altitude as quickly as possible, making them start almost like a rocket with terrible noise, vibrating your seat, and the smell of kerosene and tobacco everywhere. 

And it was not just perceived to be scary, but it actually was 77 times more dangerous than nowadays to take an airplane. In 1972, one death occurred for every 139,486 fliers. Last year, it was only one per 10,769,230 travelers. 

One could not even distract oneself with the entertainment system or the Wi-Fi offered on today’s flights. Even if they would show a movie, it was almost impossible to understand it over all the noise, so all you were left with was to look out of the window for the entire flight.

On top of that, this unpleasant experience was much more expensive than today, mostly because there was no competition to offer cheaper tickets. And it also took much longer as delays were still more frequent and even the check-in lines and customs were more time-consuming.