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01 / 05
Hang On, Are There ANY Lost Minerals?

Blog Post | Mineral Production

Hang On, Are There ANY Lost Minerals?

I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that the answer is: probably not

Summary: Despite widespread belief that humanity has exhausted certain natural materials, finding examples of fully depleted materials has proven impossible. While some resources, like malachite, may be harder to find or more regulated, they are not truly extinct. Even materials rumored to be depleted remain available on the market if you know where to look. This challenges the narrative of irreversible material loss.


A few months ago I promised to write a series of posts documenting the world’s lost materials. I was quite excited about it; over time I was hoping to build up a catalogue of all of those substances humanity once used to mine and extract from the earth’s crust, but have now been exhausted.

All of which is why it’s about time I informed you, dear readers, that I failed. After a single post (Malachite) I’m taking the decision to retire the Lost Materials series. Why? Because in trying to hunt around for minerals we have run out of, I came to an unexpected conclusion. So far, we haven’t really, meaningfully run out of, well, pretty much anything.

True: as I wrote in that first post, it’s getting harder to find decent chunks of malachite, but then again, it’s not like there’s no malachite left. Not in the slightest. Many of you kindly sent in suggestions for other minerals I should investigate. One reader suggested Silphium, an ancient much-vaunted Roman plant, but the problem there wasn’t so much that it is or isn’t exhausted but that we don’t really know what silphium actually was.

There were some very useful suggestions of stones we used to have lots of in the UK but don’t seem to have much of anymore – things like Whitby jet or Serpentine or Blue John. But in each case I had to conclude that while we don’t find all that much of these rocks we line on our shores anymore (or, perhaps it’s more accurate to say, we regulate their mining much more) there’s no shortage of similar geological specimens elsewhere in the world. They are certainly not “exhausted”.

I kept looking for exhausted things. Given a fair few species of animal and plant have become extinct in recent centuries, I figured I might have more chance finding a type of wood or herb we don’t have anymore. But even here the commonplace suggestions weren’t quite as compelling as you might have thought.

For instance, in Bill Bryson’s magnificent book At Home, he writes of the particular kind of mahogany used by Chippendale for his extraordinary furniture

Chippendale and his contemporaries were masters without any doubt, but they enjoyed one special advantage that can never be replicated: the use of the finest furniture wood that has ever existed, a species of mahogany called Swietenia mahogani. Found only on parts of Cuba and Hispaniola (the island today shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic) in the Caribbean, Swietenia mahogani has never been matched for richness, elegance and utility. Such was the demand for it that it was entirely used up – irremediably extinct – within fifty years of its discovery. Some two hundred other species of mahogany exist in the world, and most are very good woods, but they have nothing like the richness and smooth workability of the departed S. mahogani. The world may one day produce better chairmakers than Chippendale and his peers, but it will never produce finer chairs.

But here’s the thing, as far as I can tell (and do write in if I’m wrong about this), Bryson’s not quite right about this. Because there’s actually plenty of Swietenia mahogani out there. True: it’s a protected species, so it’s much harder to get hold of (which, when you think about it, sounds perfectly sensible). But it’s certainly not extinct. Don’t believe me? Look at wikipedia!

That being said, I know for a fact one cannot always rely on Wikipedia. Because another of the wild goose chases I found myself on in search of lost materials – indeed, it was going to be the next in the series of posts on this topic, as I hinted at the end of the last one – was a very particular type of marble. Look at the Wikipedia page for Carrara marble and (at the time of writing at least), the second paragraph declares that the very finest grade of Carrara marble, known as “statuario” is exhausted:

The pure white statuario grade was used for monumental sculpture, as “it has a high tensile strength, can take a high gloss polish and holds very fine detail”. By the late 20th century Carrara’s highest-grade marble had run out

Perhaps, I thought for a moment, statuario was the thing I’d been looking for – the material humankind has indeed exhausted. After all, the marble in Carrara is the product of a very particular moment in geology, when ancient seashells and marine creatures were compressed into an incredibly pure, white vein of stone. Statuario, which Michaelangelo used for some of his great sculptures, is particularly special, because it has an incredibly fine grain, enabling you to carve tiny, beautiful features out of it. Perhaps it was plausible that we might have run out?

But then I did a bit of thinking. If statuario marble were really exhausted that would mean it would be impossible to carve intricate white marble sculptures these days. But I literally know sculptors who are still doing just that. Consider the work of an old friend of mine, Nick Hornby, an artist who has made works out of precisely that supposedly no-longer-available marble.

We turn the Cube and it twists us (Erno Rubik) ii, 2023 – Nick Hornby

So then I did a bit of research. I spoke to a couple of people in the marble trade, people involved in quarrying marble in Carrara too. And I discovered that far from being exhausted, there’s enough statuario marble still left in Carrara to last the world four hundred years or more.

The apocryphal story probably found its way to Wikipedia because the vein of statuario rock wiggles its way through the mountains, with the upshot that it might very plausibly be exhausted in one quarry, only to show up in another part of the mountain. But Wikipedia is wrong. It has not run out.

Photo by Gianluigi Marin on Unsplash

Perhaps if there’s a bit of wisdom to be extracted from this whole wild goose chase it’s that while we like to tell ourselves humankind has exhausted this or that resource, we are much better at talking about it than actually, well, exhausting said resource.

Perhaps I ought to have known this sooner. After all, I gave over quite a large chunk of the copper section of Material World to documenting why, contrary to a lot of doom-laden articles and analyses at various points in history, we never actually ran out of copper. We didn’t even do all that much substitution (we use aluminium a fair bit for things like high voltage power lines, but in part that’s because aluminium is light). We mostly just got a lot better at mining copper.

The flip side of that “getting better at mining” was much bigger holes in the ground. But while there’s no shortage of people fretting about how we are about to run out of copper or oil or gold, there’s also no shortage of people ready to come up with new wheezes in refining, or new locations to find the stuff.

So while this particular series is cancelled after a single episode, in its place I have a plan for a new series of posts. This time, rather than looking at materials we have run out of, I want to look at something else. The underlying message (or one of them) from Material World is that human beings have a pretty healthy, possibly insatiable, appetite for digging stuff out of the ground, this series will focus on the minerals we are still extracting (in some cases in record amounts) even though most people thought we stopped doing it long ago.

This article was published at Material World on 12/23/2024.

Live Science | Mineral Production

Countries May Race to Harvest Antarctica’s Huge Mineral Caches

“A warming climate could expose a Pennsylvania-sized chunk of ice-free land in Antarctica by 2300, which could drastically reshape Antarctic geopolitics as well as the continent’s geography.

A study published in Nature Climate Change is the first to incorporate glacial isostatic adjustment — how land beneath heavy ice sheets uplifts after the ice retreats — into projections of ice-free land emergence in Antarctica. The results reveal that climate change could expose potentially valuable mineral resources that may spur renegotiations of the international treaties that currently govern Antarctica…

Within the area that Lucas and the research team projected would be ice-free by 2300 lie known or suspected deposits of copper, gold, silver, iron, and platinum — critical minerals used in manufacturing and valuable metals in and of themselves. In particular, the study found the largest land emergence in Antarctica is likely to occur over territories claimed by Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom and contains a range of mineral deposits, including copper, gold, silver, and iron.”

From Live Science.

Blog Post | Mineral Production

The Most Important Check in Economics

The Simon–Ehrlich wager and why predictions of resource scarcity keep getting it wrong.

Summary: A famous bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich illustrates two ways of thinking about resources and human ingenuity. Ehrlich thought of resources as a fixed pie, while Simon believed that human beings would find ways to make resources more abundant. As Simon predicted, thanks to markets and human ingenuity, the resource prices that Simon and Ehrlich bet on fell over a decade.


One of the most important checks ever written in economics was for $576.07.

It arrived in the mailbox of Julian Simon, the University of Maryland economist and Cato Institute senior fellow, on an October morning in 1990. The envelope was plain. There was no return address. Inside was a check from Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich, who died last week, was the Stanford biologist and author of the bestselling 1968 book The Population Bomb.

That small check settled one of the great arguments of the modern age.

Ehrlich had spent years warning that population growth would outrun the Earth’s resources, bring rising scarcity, and push humanity toward disaster. Simon believed the opposite. He argued that more people did not simply mean more mouths to feed. It also meant more minds to think, invent, and solve problems.

The dispute became so bitter that Simon proposed a bet.

“Pick any raw material,” he told Ehrlich, “and choose any future date. I’ll bet the price will go down.”

Ehrlich accepted. He and two colleagues selected five metals: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. They priced a basket of those commodities on Sept. 29, 1980, and agreed to compare the inflation-adjusted price 10 years later. If the real price rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich. If it fell, Ehrlich would pay Simon.

Ehrlich was certain that population growth would make resources scarcer and therefore more expensive. Simon was certain that human beings would find ways to make resources more abundant.

By Sept. 29, 1990, the world’s population had increased by about 850 million people, a rise of 19 percent. If the doomsayers were right, that should have pushed prices sharply upward.

It did not.

Inflation over the decade was 57 percent. Yet the nominal price of the five-metal basket barely budged, rising from $1,000 to $1,004. In real terms, the basket’s price fell by about 36 percent. Ehrlich mailed Simon the difference: $576.07.

That check mattered because it exposed a mistake that still poisons public debate.

The mistake is to think that natural resources are fixed gifts of nature and that economic life is therefore a grim contest over a pile that can only shrink as population grows. That view sounds sober. It is, in fact, blind to the central truth of human progress.

Resources are not simply things lying in the ground. Resources are matter plus knowledge.

Oil was once a nuisance that seeped into farmland and polluted water. A barrel of oil in the Stone Age was worthless. A barrel of oil in an industrial civilization could heat homes, move trucks, power factories, and feed chemical industries.

Nature gives us atoms. Human beings give those atoms value.

That is why Simon understood something Ehrlich missed. The ultimate resource is not copper or farmland. It is the human mind. More precisely, it is the human mind set free to experiment, trade, specialize, and innovate.

Freedom matters here. People do not solve problems automatically. They solve them when they are allowed to respond to scarcity with invention and enterprise. High prices invite substitution. Competition rewards efficiency. Property rights encourage investment. Markets spread information no planner can gather. Free people learn to do more with less.

This is not a fairy tale in which every problem solves itself. Pollution is real. Bad policy is real. Governments can strangle innovation, distort prices, and lock societies into waste and stagnation. Progress, in other words, is not guaranteed.

But the lesson of the Simon-Ehrlich bet is that the burden of proof belongs to the prophets of permanent scarcity. Time and again, they have underestimated human creativity and overestimated the world’s physical limits.

That is as true today as it was in 1980.

We hear that energy is running out, that growth must stop, that the planet cannot support prosperity for billions, and that human wants must be cut down to fit a closed and exhausted world. This language changes with the decade, but the instinct behind it is old. It treats people as liabilities. It imagines the future as a rationing exercise.

Simon offered a better vision. Human beings are not just consumers of resources. They are producers of ideas. They are creators of substitutes, technologies, and entirely new forms of wealth. They do not merely divide a pie. They learn how to bake bigger pies from ingredients earlier generations did not know they had.

The real contest, then, is not between population and resources. It is between two ways of seeing humanity.

One view sees every additional person as another claimant on scarcity. The other sees every additional person as a possible problem-solver, inventor, entrepreneur, scientist, or worker whose efforts can make life better for everyone else.

The check for $576.07 settled the bet. But the larger wager remains open.

Don’t bet against human beings, especially when they are free.

MINING.COM | Mineral Production

Japan Launches World’s First Deep-Sea Rare Earth Mining Test

“Japan has launched the world’s first test to extract rare earth elements from deep-sea mud, aiming to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.

Chikyu, a government-backed Japanese mining vessel set sail on Monday for waters near Minamitori Island, a remote coral atoll in the Pacific, to study seabed mud rich in rare earth elements at a depth of about four miles. If successful, the project would mark the first sustained attempt globally to lift rare-earth-bearing sludge from the ocean floor directly onto a ship.”

From MINING.COM.

Yahoo Finance | Mineral Production

Tesla Fires up America’s First Major Lithium Refinery

“This week, Tesla North America and Elon Musk announced that the largest and most advanced lithium refinery in the United States is now operational.

The Tesla Lithium Refinery just outside of Corpus Christi, Texas, is another step toward the U.S. goal of having domestic refined lithium resources to counter China’s market dominance…

The refinery converts spodumene ore directly into battery-grade lithium hydroxide, in a first-of-its-kind process in North America.

Tesla uses a new technology platform that allows a cleaner, simpler, and cheaper process to obtain battery-grade lithium from the raw material, spodumene ore, says Jason Bevan, Site Manager for Tesla’s Gulf Coast Lithium Refinery.

Tesla says it sustainably sources spodumene and brings it to site where it runs it through a series of conveyance systems, takes it through a kiln and a cooler. From there, the material is taken through an alkaline leech and additional purification steps, and then into crystallization to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide.”

From Yahoo Finance.