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01 / 05
Flying Gets Cheaper as More People Fly

Blog Post | Air Transport

Flying Gets Cheaper as More People Fly

Since 2000, US airfare time prices decreased by 49 percent while passenger enplanements grew by 51 percent.

Gale L. Pooley —

Summary: In the United States, flying has become both cheaper and more common over the past 25 years. Airfares have grown more affordable relative to wages, while the number of people traveling has risen sharply. Despite setbacks from crises like 9/11, the 2008 recession, and the pandemic, air travel today is far more accessible and abundant than at the start of the century.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks airfares while the Department of Transportation monitors enplanements (passenger boardings). Since 2000, the US population grew 22 percent while enplanements increased by 51 percent, and the time price of airfares for blue-collar workers decreased by 49 percent. This means that in 2025, these workers get 2.04 airfares for the same amount of time it took them to earn the money to buy one airfare in 2000, indicating an abundance increase of 104 percent. Every 1 percent increase in population corresponded with a 4.73 percent increase in personal airfare abundance (104 ÷ 22).

The historical chart clearly shows the negative impact of major disruptions – the September 11th attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic policies – on flying.

You can also analyze total airfare abundance by combining airfare time price abundance with increased passenger enplanements. To visualize that, we plot airfare time price abundance on the vertical axis and enplanements on the horizontal axis, creating comparative boxes for 2000 and 2025, and then overlaying 2000 onto 2025.

Using 2000 as our baseline (setting both variables to 1.0), the initial box measures 1.0 × 1.0 = 1.0. By 2025, enplanements had grown 51 percent (to 1.51) while airfare abundance increased by 104 percent (to 2.04). The 2025 box therefore measures 1.51 × 2.04 = 3.08.

That represents a 208 percent increase in total airfare abundance over 25 years, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 4.6 percent. At this pace, airfare abundance doubles approximately every 16 years. Every 1 percent increase in population corresponded with a 9.45 percent increase in personal airfare abundance (208 ÷ 22).

Tip of the Hat: Maxwell Tabarrok.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

FlightGlobal | Air Transport

Autonomous Flight Technology Envisioned for Large Jets

“US start-up Merlin, which has for several years been flying conventional aircraft modified for autonomous operations, is rolling out a new autonomy system intended for various types of large commercial aircraft, starting with cargo types.

The company on 14 May revealed ‘Merlin Pilot for Commercial Cargo’, a technology Merlin says incorporates AI, will handle all phases of flight and can improve aviation safety by preventing human-related accidents. The system can also enable “augmented operations”, allowing for a single pilot to be alone in the cockpit of aircraft typically operated by two pilots.

‘Merlin Pilot works alongside pilots in real-time to extend crew capabilities and scale operations beyond the limits of the traditional model,’ the company says. ‘Integrating into existing and new cargo aircraft, Merlin Pilot is designed to provide operators a practical pathway to autonomy.’

Merlin, based in Boston, envisions its technology as compatible with multiple aircraft types, including Airbus and Boeing commercial jets and a variety of military designs.”

From FlightGlobal.

Reuters | Air Transport

Jet Fuel Market Adapts Smoothly to Shifting Supply Routes

“Global jet fuel demand is expected to average 7.77 million barrels per day this year, according to the International Energy Agency, little changed from 2025.

With Middle Eastern supply curtailed, ​buyers are seeking fuel from further afield.

One tanker, the Nord Ventura, sailed for more than a month from Louisiana to deliver about 300,000 barrels of jet fuel to Melbourne, the ​first such shipment since at least 2017, according to Kpler data.

Europe has sent a rare cargo to the Seychelles and imported barrels from New York Harbour, a region it typically supplies.

Asia has also drawn in cargoes from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Africa, while China has curbed exports to protect domestic supply.

In effect, the market is redistributing supply globally rather than relying on its most efficient routes.”

From Reuters.

US Department of Transportation | Air Transport

Transportation Secretary Completes Phase One Overhaul of Critical Pilot Alert System

“U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy today [5/12/26] announced the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has successfully implemented phase one of an overhaul of the ‘Notices to Airmen (NOTAM)’ system. This system — which is decades old — is essential to facilitating air travel because it provides pilots with the information they need to fly safely. Upgrading it will prevent nationwide airspace shutdowns, enhance safety, and improve communications.

‘The last administration handed us a 40-year old aviation alert system on the verge of complete collapse,’ said U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy. ‘Instead of waiting for another nationwide ground stop, we moved at the Speed of Trump to build a brand new, modern system — and we did it years ahead of schedule. Successfully completing Phase One of the NOTAM transition is just another example of how the Trump Administration is tackling the toughest challenges and delivering results.’

FLASHBACK: The old legacy system was prone to failure leading to a full NOTAM shutdown in January 2023 that grounded flights nationwide. The previous administration said this would take until late 2027.

FASTFORWARD: Thanks to Secretary Duffy’s leadership, the FAA moved the NOTAM system into the cloud in April 2026, completed Phase 1 of the modernization effort at record speed, and are well on our way to transitioning the entire system.”

From US Department of Transportation.