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01 / 05
Floating on Hyperbole: The New York Times’ Take on Low-Lying Islands

Blog Post | Natural Disasters

Floating on Hyperbole: The New York Times’ Take on Low-Lying Islands

Human ingenuity can act faster than microscopic, gradual shifts in the earth's climate.

Summary: Climate change narratives have predicted the disappearance of low-lying islands like the Maldives due to rising sea levels. But as the New York Times has recently noticed, many of these islands are actually expanding, thanks in large part to human ingenuity. This highlights the human capacity to adapt and thrive in the face of environmental challenges.


For decades, leaders, media, and the climate commentariat invoked the shrinking islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans as examples of the existential threat that humanity supposedly faces. Climate change comes for all of us, they said, but faster for these low-lying islands, which will literally cease to exist in the face of rising sea levels.

The visually stunning New York Times piece “The Vanishing Islands That Failed to Vanish” by climate reporter Raymond Zhong and photographer Jason Gulley explores the very obvious fact that the low-lying Maldives haven’t vanished.

Around the time of the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties climate summits, representatives for what are called “Small Island Developing States” usually make a lot of fuss and demand the rich world “do more” to combat climate change lest these states vanish.

To the readers and editors of the New York Times, the fact that these islands aren’t disappearing must have come as a surprise. For their standard narratives of certain climate death, the small islands story made some semblance of sense: low-lying island nations, lacking mountains or higher ground to retreat to, would literally go extinct if the waves crashed just a little bit higher. Since sea level rise is one of the most predictable outcomes of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide, thermal expansion, and melting polar ice, surely the islands must shortly disappear.

Writes Zhong, “These islands, which form atop coral reefs in clusters called atolls, were quickly identified as some of the first places climate change might ravage in their entirety. As the ice caps melted and the seas crept higher, these accidents of geologic history were bound to be corrected and the tiny islands returned to watery oblivion, probably in this century.” Cue the theatrics.

When we investigate this iron logic of low-lying islands and an endlessly rising sea level, we discover that, actually, most of these islands are rising rather than shrinking—especially if they’re inhabited by significant populations. Humans don’t go gentle into that good night, and neither, it seems, do the coral reefs and atolls on which the Maldives and countless other island nations around the world sit.

The creative, creating, and inventive humans who call these islands home are pretty reluctant to let the ocean waves slowly drag their shores under. When humans act faster than microscopic, gradual shifts in the climate, outcomes from a harsher nature don’t mean certain death.

Thanks to land reclamation, 93.5 percent of inhabited Maldivian islands expanded between 2004–2006 and 2014–2016, some 60 percent of which through human engineering efforts. While the journalists and doomsday-peddlers half a world away were worrying over the disappearing islands, the Maldivians were busy building a new capital city in Hulhumalé. During 20 years of sea level rises, they turned a strip of land barely usable as an airport into a full-fledged city with high-rises, harbors, and city centers.

What must be equally fascinating to readers of this story and members of the green-industrial complex alike, is the discovery that Earth itself assisted the struggling humans.

It started with the scientists Arthur Webb and Paul Kench, whom the New York Times team followed a decade and a half after the 2010 paper in Global and Planetary Change that first alerted many scientists to the nonissue of island shrinking. Comparing aerial photos of the Maldivian islands from midcentury until the early 2000s, it turned out that “the seas had risen an inch or so each decade, yet the waves had kept piling sediment on the islands’ shores, enough to mean that most of them hadn’t changed much in size.” Clearly, the mechanic story of oceans up, islands down was flawed.

In addition to those natural and dynamic geological processes, we have the Dutch story of humans taking fate into their own hands. The sea encroaching on your homes? Let’s shut it out, drain the swamps, make dykes and polders, and make the reclaimed land livable. Something like a third of the country, including the city of Amsterdam, is below mean sea level.

Humans, it turns out, don’t stand around haplessly waiting for a slowly eroding shoreline to make them homeless—be they rich nations like the Netherlands or poor, developing ones like the Maldives.

What’s facing the Maldives is a rough microcosm of the broader climate change questions—yes, things are changing in the natural world, and no, we aren’t powerless to how they affect us. There is a way to be concerned about the state of nature and how humans are changing it without devolving into terror, hyperbole, and anti-humanism.

If we can become and remain rich enough, and “if we keep our wits about us,” we’ll be all right.

In the grand saga of climate change, perhaps the media should spend a little less time crafting tales of woe and a bit more on highlighting the remarkable human capacity to adapt and thrive.

Axios | Natural Disasters

Google AI Weather Model Beats Most Reliable Forecast System

“Researchers have built an artificial intelligence-based weather forecast that makes faster and more accurate predictions than the best system available today.

GenCast, an AI weather program from Google DeepMind, performed up to 20% better than the ENS forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), widely regarded as the world leader.

In the near term, GenCast is expected to support traditional forecasts rather than replace them, but even in an assistive capacity it could provide clarity around future cold blasts, heatwaves and high winds, and help energy companies predict how much power they will generate from windfarms.

In a head-to-head comparison, the program churned out more accurate forecasts than ENS on day-to-day weather and extreme events up to 15 days in advance, and was better at predicting the paths of destructive hurricanes and other tropical cyclones, including where they would make landfall.”

From Axios.

The Debrief | Natural Disasters

Hurricane Forecasting to Get Major Machine Learning Upgrade

“As experts struggle to improve their models for hurricane prediction, the City University of Hong Kong researchers focused specifically on the prediction of the boundary layer wind field—the region of the atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface, where human activity and storm impact converge.

‘We human beings are living in this boundary layer, so understanding and accurately modeling it is essential for storm forecasting and hazard preparedness,’ Li said in a recent statement.

Modeling the boundary layer is particularly difficult because it involves interactions between air, land, ocean, and surface-level structures. Traditional forecasting methods rely on massive numerical simulations performed on supercomputers, incorporating vast observational data. Despite these efforts, predictions often fall short of the precision needed for effective disaster response.”

From The Debrief.

BBC | Energy Production

Why Scientists Are Drilling into Volcanos

“The Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT) intends to advance the understanding of how magma, or molten rock, behaves underground.

That knowledge could help scientists forecast the risk of eruptions and push geothermal energy to new frontiers, by tapping into an extremely hot and potentially limitless source of volcano power.”

From BBC.

The Atlantic | Energy Consumption

Hurricane Helene Just Made the Case for Electric Trucks

“When Hurricane Helene knocked out the power in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday, Dustin Baker, like many other people across the Southeast, turned to a backup power source. His just happened to be an electric pickup truck. Over the weekend, Baker ran extension cords from the back of his Ford F-150 Lightning, using the truck’s battery to keep his refrigerator and freezer running. It worked so well that Baker became an energy Good Samaritan. ‘I ran another extension cord to my neighbor so they could run two refrigerators they have,’ he told me.

Americans in hurricane territory have long kept diesel-powered generators as a way of life, but electric cars are a leap forward. An EV, at its most fundamental level, is just a big battery on wheels that can be used to power anything, not only the car itself. Some EVs pack enough juice to power a whole home for several days, or a few appliances for even longer. In the aftermath of Helene, as millions of Americans were left without power, many EV owners did just that. A vet clinic that had lost power used an electric F-150 to keep its medicines cold and continue seeing patients during the blackout. One Tesla Cybertruck owner used his car to power his home after his entire neighborhood lost power.”

From The Atlantic.