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01 / 05
Feast More, Spend Less: The Most Affordable Thanksgiving in Four Decades

Blog Post | Food Prices

Feast More, Spend Less: The Most Affordable Thanksgiving in Four Decades

The time price of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people has dropped 45.3 percent, from 3.22 hours in 1986 to 1.76 hours today.

Summary: Thanksgiving has never been more affordable. Though nominal prices have risen over the decades, nominal wages have risen much faster, meaning today’s workers spend far less time earning their holiday meal than previous generations did. Thanks to innovation, productivity, and economic freedom, abundance has grown even as the population has increased.


Since 1986, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) has conducted an annual price survey of food items found in a typical Thanksgiving Day dinner. The items on this shopping list are intended to feed a group of 10 people, with plenty of leftovers. The list includes a turkey, a pumpkin pie mix, milk, a vegetable tray, bread rolls, pie shells, green peas, fresh cranberries, whipping cream, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, and several miscellaneous ingredients.

What has happened to the price of a Thanksgiving Day dinner over the past 39 years? The AFBF reports that in nominal terms, the price rose 92 percent, from $28.74 in 1986 to $55.18 in 2025. However, since we buy things with money but pay for them with time, we should analyze the cost of a Thanksgiving Day dinner using “time prices.” To calculate the time price, we divide the nominal price of the meal by the nominal hourly wage rate. That gives us the number of work hours required to earn enough money to feed 10 guests.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the blue-collar hourly wage rate has increased 251.2 percent, from $8.92 per hour in 1986 to $31.33 per hour in 2025. Remarkably, hourly wages for entry-level workers have increased even faster—from $4.72 to $18.75 per hour, or 297.2 percent.

Remember that when wages increase faster than prices, time prices decrease. As the figure below shows, the blue-collar time price of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people has dropped 45.3 percent, from 3.22 hours in 1986 to 1.76 hours today, the lowest time price on record. Today, an individual blue-collar worker enjoys a Thanksgiving dinner for the “time price” of 10.6 minutes compared with 19.3 minutes in 1986.

Given that the time price of a Thanksgiving dinner decreased by 45.3 percent, a blue collar worker now gets 83 percent more dinner for the same time it took him to earn the money to buy one dinner back in 1986.

Upskilling Workers

Most people don’t begin their careers as blue-collar workers and remain there for 40 years. Imagine starting as an entry-level worker in 1986 earning $4.72 per hour. If, over the past four decades, you have upskilled and advanced to the US average wage of $36.53 per hour, your nominal wages would have risen 673.9 percent. A Thanksgiving dinner for 10 that required 6.1 hours of work in 1986 now takes just 1.51 hours. The time price has fallen 75.2 percent. For the time it once took to buy a single Thanksgiving dinner, an upskilling worker can now buy 4.03 dinners. Personal abundance has risen by 303.1 percent. The table below summarizes the changes in prices and wage rates:

Population-Level Abundance

To see how food prices relate to population growth, imagine providing a Thanksgiving dinner for every person in the United States. In 1986, with a population of 240 million, feeding the nation at blue-collar wage rates would have required 77.5 million hours of work. By 2025, the population has grown 42.5 percent to 342 million—but over that same period, the time price of Thanksgiving dinners fell by 45.3 percent. As a result of those changes, feeding the entire country in 2025 would require only 60.4 million hours of blue-collar work. That’s 17.1 million fewer hours—a 22.1 percent decrease.

Malthus and Thanos would be confounded. And Paul Ehrlich? One suspects he’d rather not discuss it.

Thanksgiving is a great time to be grateful for the freedom to innovate and for all those who work so hard to transform scarcities into abundances.

Find more of Gale’s work at his Substack, Gale Winds.

Blog Post | Wealth & Poverty

Dinner With Dickens Was Slim Pickins

Claims that characters in "A Christmas Carol" were better off than modern Americans are pure humbug.

Summary: There have recently been widespread claims that Dickens’s working poor were better off than modern minimum-wage workers. Such comparisons rely on misleading inflation math and selective reading. The severe material deprivation of Victorian life—crowded housing, scarce possessions, and basic sanitation problems—dwarfs today’s standards. Modern Americans, even at the lower end of the income scale, enjoy far greater material comfort than the Cratchits ever did.


Christmas is often a time for nostalgia. We look back on our own childhood holidays. Songs and traditions from the past dominate the culture.

Nostalgia is not without its purposes. But it can also be misleading. Take those who view the material circumstances of Charles Dickens’s “A Christmas Carol” as superior to our own.

Claims that an American today earning the minimum wage is worse off than the working poor of the 19th century have been popular since at least 2021. A recent post with thousands of likes reads:

Time for your annual reminder that, according to A Christmas Carol, Bob Cratchit makes 15 shillings a week. Adjusted for inflation, that’s $530.27/wk, $27,574/yr, or $13.50/ hr. Most Americans on minimum wage earn less than a Dickensian allegory for destitution.

This is humbug.

Consider how harsh living conditions were for a Victorian earning 15 shillings a week.

Dickens writes that Mr. Cratchit lives with his wife and six children in a four-room house. It is rare for modern residents of developed nations to crowd eight people into four rooms.

It was common in the Victorian era. According to Britain’s National Archives, a typical home had no more than four rooms. Worse yet, it lacked running water and a toilet. Entire streets (or more) would share a few toilets and a pump with water that was often polluted.

The Cratchit household has few possessions. Their glassware consists of merely “two tumblers, and a custard-cup without a handle.” For Christmas dinner, Mr. Cratchit wears “threadbare clothes” while his wife is “dressed out but poorly in a twice-turned gown.”

People used to turn clothing inside-out and alter the stitching to extend its lifespan. The practice predated the Victorian era, but continued into it. Eventually, clothes would become “napless, threadbare and tattered,” as the historian Emily Cockayne noted.

The Cratchits didn’t out-earn a modern American earning the minimum wage. Mr. Cratchit’s weekly salary of 15 shillings in 1843, the year “A Christmas Carol” was published, is equivalent to almost £122 in 2025. Converted to U.S. dollars, that’s about $160 a week, for an annual salary of $8,320.

The U.S. federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour or $15,080 per year for a full-time worker. That’s about half of what the meme claims Mr. Cratchit earned. Only 1% of U.S. workers earned the federal minimum wage or less last year. Most states set a higher minimum wage. The average worker earns considerably more. Clerks like Mr. Cratchit now earn an average annual salary of $49,210.

Mr. Cratchit couldn’t have purchased much of the modern “basket of goods” used in inflation calculations. Many of the basket’s items weren’t available in 1843. The U.K.’s Office of National Statistics recently added virtual reality headsets to it.

Another way to compare the relative situation of Mr. Cratchit and a minimum-wage worker today is to see how long it would take each of them to earn enough to buy something comparable. A BBC article notes that, according to an 1844 theatrical adaptation of “A Christmas Carol,” it would have taken Mr. Cratchit a week’s wages to purchase the trappings of a Christmas feast: “seven shillings for the goose, five for the pudding, and three for the onions, sage and oranges.” Mr. Cratchit opts for a goose for the family’s Christmas meal. A turkey—then a costlier option—was too expensive.

The American Farm Bureau Federation found that the ingredients for a turkey-centered holiday meal serving 10 people cost $55.18 in 2025. At the federal minimum wage, someone would need to work seven hours and 37 minutes to afford that feast.

A minimum-wage worker could earn more than enough in a single workday to purchase a meal far more lavish than the modest Christmas dinner that cost Mr. Cratchit an entire week’s pay. And the amount of time a person needs to work to afford a holiday meal has fallen dramatically for the average blue-collar worker in recent years despite inflation. Wages have grown faster than food prices.

There has been substantial progress in living conditions since the 1840s. We’re much better off than the Cratchits were. In fact, most people today enjoy far greater material comfort than did even Dickens’s rich miser Ebenezer Scrooge.

This article was originally published in the Wall Street Journal on 12/23/2025.

WBUR | Pollution

Boston Harbor Shellfish Are Safe to Eat for the First Time in a Century

“It’s been a little over hundred years since residents or fishermen were able to catch shellfish safe to eat in the Boston Harbor…

Now, the state has declared that shellfish from parts of Boston Harbor can be safely caught and eaten again…

Harvesting in the harbor was banned almost entirely in 1925 after contaminated oysters led to a national typhoid epidemic. In the decades since, Boston Harbor has undergone a multi-billion dollar clean-up…

Up until now, only licensed commercial harvesters have been able to fish in certain areas of the harbor. Their catches went through a purification process before being sold and eaten.

Earlier this month, state officials updated the classification for parts of the outer harbor near Hingham, Hull and Winthrop to ‘conditionally approved’ — meaning residents and commercial harvesters alike will soon be able to collect shellfish from those areas.”

From WBUR.

South China Morning Post | Food Production

World’s First Clone-Hybrid Rice Could Double Global Output

“Chinese researchers have developed a revolutionary form of hybrid rice that can replicate itself through seeds that are clones, faithfully preserving high-yield traits generation after generation…

The price of hybrid seeds can reach 200 yuan (US$28) per kilogram in China, and even higher in other countries – up to 100 times more than that of regular rice seeds.

Moreover, the offspring of these high-priced seeds lose their hybrid vigour – superior traits from crossbreeding – forcing farmers to buy seeds again every year.

A research team led by Wang Kejian at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences’ China National Rice Research Institute has developed hybrid rice capable of near-perfect clonal reproduction through apomixis – a process in which seeds develop without fertilisation.

The team’s work, which is pending peer review, was published on the preprint server bioRxiv on October 17 under the title ‘Fixing Hybrid Rice: >99% Efficient Apomixis with Near-Normal Seed Set.’

Its new Fix8 series achieves more than 99.7 per cent cloning efficiency with seed-setting rates rivalling conventional hybrids, effectively creating self-replicating super rice.”

From South China Morning Post.