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Don't Count on a “Tech-Driven” Employment Apocalypse

Blog Post | Adoption of Technology

Don't Count on a “Tech-Driven” Employment Apocalypse

New technology creates more, better jobs than it costs. If anything, automation may lead to labor shortages.

Media reports often paint a dire picture of technological change and automation which they fear will spawn a future rife with massive job loss and less employment. And yet, a labour shortage— not a glut due to mass unemployment— looms in Canada thanks to retiring baby boomers and our aging population.

Furthermore, history suggests that when technological change alters the employment mix, the economy grows, creating new jobs and more opportunity. For example, a Deloitte study of census results for the United Kingdom since 1871 notes that, despite fears of job destruction, technological change spurs job creation. Over the long run, the UK has experienced increases in both employment and the labour force. While there were declines in some occupations such as agricultural labourers, washers, launderers, telephonists, and telegraph operators, other occupations such as accountants, bar staff, hairdressers, service workers, etc. experienced employment growth.

The situation is the same in Canada. Between 1851 and 2017—an era marked by rapid technological change— our population grew from 2.4 million to 35.2 million, a 15-fold increase, while the Canadian labour force grew from an estimated 762,000 people to 19.7 million people, a 26-fold increase. And according to employment data, from 1891 to 2017, the number of employed people in Canada grew from 1.6 million to 18.4 million, a 12-fold increase, while the labour force (which includes employed people, unemployed people seeking work, and employers) grew—from 1.7 million people to 19.7 million people, also a 12-fold increase.

While employment and the labour force grew alongside technological progress and development, the composition of employment also changed. For example, in 1921 agriculture still accounted for nearly one-third of all employment in Canada (down from 50 percent in 1871) compared to two percent by the early 21st century. Overall, the last 150 years in Canada has seen a shift from goods production (manufacturing, for example) to services (health, for example) as the dominant source of employment. Even as demand for many traditional jobs has declined, entirely new occupations have arisen that did not exist mere decades ago—think of today’s social media strategists, solar panel installers, and genetic counsellors.

Forecasts suggest that in coming years, employment and the labour force in Canada will continue growing, but at a diminished rate with employment growing slightly faster than the labour force. The result? Low unemployment rates. Again, this is due largely to our aging population and the expected decline in labour force participation rates. Overall labour force participation in Canada has declined over the last decade but interestingly has grown among people aged 55 and over, reflecting the progress of the demographic bulge known as the Baby Boom.

In 2016, people aged 55 and over accounted for 36 percent of Canada’s working-age population—the highest percentage since 1976, the first year of comparable data—with this proportion expected to reach 40 percent by 2026. Yet this demographic will eventually retire, opening up large areas of employment to the smaller age cohorts behind. Demand for workers is expected to be high in health care, computer system design and related services, support services for mining, oil, and gas extraction, social assistance, legal, accounting, and other professional services, arts and entertainment, and food services, such as chefs and servers.

Clearly, contrary to popular belief, history teaches that technological change has been marked by increases in total long-term employment, notwithstanding shortterm job loss for individuals. That’s good news. Canada’s labour market will likely experience continued employment growth (though at lower rates than in the previous half-century) due to demographic changes and changes in labour force participation rates. Our aging labour force, the retirement of baby boomers, and the creation of new jobs spurred by technology, will combine to create a period of chronic labour scarcity, which means the demand for workers will be high.

This originally appeared in The Fraser Institute’s Fall 2019 Quarterly publication.

The Keyword | Employment

AI Is Helping Workers Across Jobs, but Not Replacing Them

“Google is launching the first iteration of the AI & Economy ATLAS (Activity, Task, Landscape, and Adoption Study), an ongoing, large-scale, de-identified study of how people are using Google’s AI products and tools…

Here a few of the most interesting observations so far:

  • AI use at work is broad but shallow: Workplace adoption spans all industry sectors and also 68% of all occupations that collectively represent 90% of total U.S. employment. However within jobs, people are using AI selectively: in a typical job AI is used for only ~21% of tasks.
  • At work, most AI use is focused on collaboration and assistance with tasks, and so far task automation is uncommon: ATLAS data shows the vast majority of AI interactions at work focus on collaborative uses such as ideation, strategy, information retrieval, and learning. Tasks like creative design and hypothesis testing (categorized in ATLAS as “non-routine cognitive”) show up in AI work interactions at a much higher rate than in the economy as a whole (65% vs 35%). Less than 10% of those interactions fully automate tasks.
  • AI use is not limited to white collar workers, it’s also assisting workers in predominantly physical and manual occupations with adjacent tasks: AI use for work is not limited to jobs traditionally seen as knowledge work. While not as prevalent, workers in manual and technical trades (e.g., auto technicians, industrial mechanics) are using conversational AI as a live collaborator for real-time diagnostics, troubleshooting, and on-the-fly learning. When workers in these areas use our AI tools, they’re 2x more likely to use multimodal AI (i.e. using AI to create images or video). For example, automotive technicians and industrial mechanics use AI to interpret complex test results, debug electrical wiring, and inspect machinery for wear.
  • AI is delivering value at home that may be missed in standard economic metrics, particularly around high-friction administrative tasks: Over 86% of interactions with AI tools in ATLAS occur outside of work. People are using AI in new and interesting ways not captured in standard economic metrics including productive household activities (e.g. researching purchases, help with using appliances, and tools) and high-friction administrative tasks (e.g. navigating government services like taxes, licensing, and fines).”

From The Keyword.

Blog Post | Employment

Evolving Markets Drove the Remote Work Revolution

Free choices—not mandates—have made flexible work a lasting reality.

Summary: Remote and hybrid work have become a durable feature of the modern workplace, with most remote-capable employees choosing flexible arrangements that benefit both workers and employers. Evidence suggests these models can improve productivity, job satisfaction, health, and employee retention while reflecting voluntary market decisions rather than government mandates. As with many past workplace improvements, adoption has largely preceded legal recognition, suggesting that policy should remove barriers to flexible work instead of attempting to direct it.


Back in 2020, I noted, “The dramatic rise in telework amid the pandemic is a radical experiment, but its effects will be long-lasting.” I was right. Rates of full-time, in-office work plummeted during the pandemic, and while many employers have since shifted from fully remote work to hybrid work schedules, hybrid work levels have remained stable since 2022. In 2025, 78% of full-time remote-capable U.S. employees are either hybrid or fully remote, with hybrid as the most common arrangement.

What is sustaining this transformation of the workplace? The inconvenient answer for those who see government action as the source of progress is that this transformation is thanks to freely chosen, mutually beneficial decisions by employers and employees rather than any top-down mandate. 

The proof is in how durable these patterns have been. Millions of workers and employers continue to choose them because they work. Roughly half of the U.S. workforce consists of employees who are capable of working remote or hybrid jobs. The most common arrangement sees workers commute two days a week and work remotely the other three. Most workers appreciate the flexibility, with a mere 6% of remote-capable workers saying they prefer to work on-site full-time.

An analysis from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that across industries, the rise in remote work and total factor productivity growth may be positively correlated, and many employees report higher productivity at home. Some research also suggests that hybrid and fully remote work may have positive effects on individual employee productivitysatisfaction, and physical health, as well as employee retention.

Historically, most improvements for workers have followed a similar pattern—wherein the market dictates employer-employee relationships, not government—despite a popular narrative to the contrary. The economist Benjamin Powell observed that legal labor standards, working-hour limits, and the introduction of a minimum wage in the United States and other wealthy countries after industrialization largely mirrored policies that employers had already implemented of their own accord. Legislation merely codified preexisting norms instead of prompting a change in industry practices. 

Economist Price Fishback similarly noted, for example, “State laws limiting the number of working hours for women … passed after many employers had substantially reduced hours for women. Recent studies have found that the laws had relatively little effect.” 

A century ago, the Ford Motor Company pioneered limiting the workweek to five days. Ford’s example soon inspired manufacturers across the country and around the world to adopt the Monday-to-Friday workweek. That occurred because employers discovered that productivity increased, while employees valued the extra leisure time. As the economist Ludwig von Mises put it, “The nineteenth century’s labor legislation by and large achieved nothing more than to provide ratification for changes which the interplay of market factors had brought about previously.”

Today, remote and hybrid work often benefits both employers and employees, and this work flexibility rise occurred in spite of many outdated government rules that hinder such arrangements. These rules are in desperate need of reform. For example, various federal tax rules discriminate against remote work arrangements, while differing state rules can subject remote workers to double taxation, and occupational licensing rules limit workers’ options to move between states. If anything, the government has stood in the way of the great workplace transformation toward remote and hybrid work.

Calls to legally mandate remote or hybrid work are a misguided attempt to give the government credit for a shift that has already happened independently of government action. Premier Jacinta Allan of Victoria, Australia, announced that her state government will enshrine a legal right for employees, in both the private and public sectors, who can perform their job from home to do so at least two days a week. The law comes into effect in September.

The legal change will benefit few employees, as 65% of Victorians are already hybrid or remote, but it will create more bureaucratic headaches by adding unnecessary red tape for employers and employees alike. “WFH [work from home] is already happening, and there is no reason to legislate a one-size-fits-all approach,” cautioned Andrew McKellar, the chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

This represents perhaps the first example of a legal entitlement to work from home, coming long after the market has already made such arrangements widespread. “If you can do your job from home, we’ll make it your right—because we’re on your side,” said Allan. In reality, it is employers and employees exercising their freedom in the market, not political mandates, that have made the flexibility of remote and hybrid work widely available today.

This article was originally published at RealClearMarkets on 6/23/2026.

Wall Street Journal | Employment

The New Jobs Being Created by AI

“Artificial intelligence has sparked fears it will become a job killer. It’s also fueling a crop of new careers.

AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as head of AI and AI engineer. That tally doesn’t include the huge number of temporary construction jobs tied to building the mammoth data centers AI relies on…

The fast-emerging new jobs help train AI to improve its performance and take on more tasks, and help train humans to use AI in their work. The jobs run the gamut from high-level careers in AI strategy to hourly work. Many of these new employees work directly for AI companies, but other industries including finance, healthcare and manufacturing are also snapping up such workers as they seek to capitalize on the technology.”

From Wall Street Journal.

World Bank | Quality of Government

Côte D’Ivoire’s Land Reforms Are Unlocking Jobs and Growth

“Secure land tenure transforms dormant assets into active capital—unlocking access to credit, encouraging investment, and spurring entrepreneurship. These are the building blocks of job creation and economic growth.

When landowners have secure property rights, they invest more in their land. Existing data shows that with secure property rights, agricultural output increases by 40% on average. Efficient land rental markets also significantly boost productivity, with up to 60% productivity gains and 25% welfare improvements for tenants…

Building on a long-term partnership with the World Bank, the Government of Côte d’Ivoire has dramatically accelerated delivery of formal land records to customary landholders in rural areas by implementing legal, regulatory, and institutional reforms and digitizing the customary rural land registration process, which is led by the Rural Land Agency (Agence Foncière Rurale – AFOR).

This has enabled a five-fold increase in the number of land certificates delivered in just five years compared to the previous 20 years.”

From World Bank.